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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Archives for July 5, 2025

Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 2a

, UTC by

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 

463 
WTNT33 KNHC 050546
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 78.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system.  Additional warnings
and watches will likely be required for portions of this area
later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three 
was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 78.8 West. The 
depression has been nearly stationary tonight, but a slow motion 
towards the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, 
followed by a motion toward the north by the end of the day, and 
then northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of 
the depression is expected to move near or over the coast of South 
Carolina on Sunday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is
forecast to become a tropical storm later today. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure as measured by a recent ship 
observation near the center is 1010 mb (29.82 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning late today or early Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas 
today through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an
elevated risk for flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could
occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of
onshore flow.
 
SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip
currents to much of the southeastern United States coastline north
of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found 
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents#contents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 

000
FONT13 KNHC 050234
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025               
0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   4( 4)   9(13)   4(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   5( 5)  13(18)   8(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   7( 7)  17(24)   7(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   2( 2)   9(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  1  21(22)  23(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  1  17(18)  13(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  1   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 

358 
WTNT43 KNHC 050235
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

The depression is less organized on satellite imagery this evening, 
with a seemingly elongated low-level center near or just west of the 
deep convection. This structure is due to persistent southwesterly 
shear, with a mid-level circulation apparent east of the low-level 
center.  The current intensity will remain 30 kt, consistent with 
data from the last Air Force reconnaissance mission and satellite 
trends.  
 
The system has been moving erratically recently, but a longer term 
motion is basically stationary.  A slow north-northwestward motion 
is anticipated to begin on Saturday as the depression is steered on 
the northeast side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the 
northeastern Gulf.  After that time, the system should be steered 
to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed 
along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. This motion 
should bring the center near or over the coast of South Carolina 
Sunday morning.  The new NHC track forecast was nudged to the east, 
consistent with the latest guidance.

The global models generally indicate that the current shear should 
lessen on Saturday, which could allow for some strengthening in 
combination with the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.  There is 
plenty of dry air aloft, however, which will probably limit 
significant development, as well as the current disheveled 
structure.  The bulk of the guidance indicates modest strengthening 
as the system approaches the coast, and the new forecast follows 
suit, near the latest model consensus.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash 
flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three between Saturday 
through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur 
within more urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the 
Carolinas.
 
3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of southeastern United States north of northeastern 
Florida during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 30.6N  78.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 30.9N  79.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 31.7N  79.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 32.9N  79.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  07/0000Z 34.2N  79.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1200Z 35.5N  78.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 

912 
WTNT23 KNHC 050234
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025
0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  78.9W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  78.9W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  79.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.9N  79.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.7N  79.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 32.9N  79.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.2N  79.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.5N  78.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N  78.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 2

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 

000
WTNT33 KNHC 050234
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 78.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system.  Additional warnings
and watches will likely be required for portions of this area
later tonight and Saturday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 78.9 West. The
depression has been nearly stationary tonight.  A slow motion 
towards the north-northwest is expected to begin on Saturday,
followed by a motion toward the north Saturday night and northeast 
Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression 
is expected to move near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday 
morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is 
forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning late Saturday or early Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy 
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas 
Saturday through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with 
local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an 
elevated risk for flash flooding. 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding 
associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National 
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could
occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of
onshore flow.
 
SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip
currents to much of the southeastern United States coastline north 
of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake