NHC.hurricane.com

NHC Hurricane Advisories

Archives for July 4, 2025

Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 1a

, UTC by

Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 

030 
WTNT33 KNHC 042332
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system.  Additional warnings
and watches will likely be required for portions of this area
later tonight and Saturday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 79.0 West. The
depression has recently been stationary, but is forecast to move 
toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h) later this evening. A slow 
motion toward the north-northwest is then expected on Saturday, 
followed by a motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday. On 
the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move 
near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning.
 
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter indicate that 
maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast 
to become a tropical storm on Saturday.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning late Saturday or early Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
Saturday through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an
elevated risk for flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could
occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of
onshore flow.
 
SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip
currents to much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of
days.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2025 

093 
FONT13 KNHC 042034
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025               
2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   7(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   4( 4)   6(10)   7(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  1  13(14)  15(29)   6(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  1  12(13)  13(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 

000
WTNT43 KNHC 042035
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025
 
The wind circulation associated with the low pressure area east of
the coast of north Florida has become stronger, with aircraft and
scatterometer data indicating a well-defined circulation with
maximum winds near 30 kt and a radius of maximum wind of about
80-90 n mi. The system has also developed persistent convection east
and southeast of the center. Based on these developments,
advisories are being started on Tropical Depression Three. The
cyclone is currently being affected by 20-25 kt of southwesterly
shear caused by a mid- to upper-level trough not far to the west.
 
The initial motion is uncertain due to some reformation of the
center, with the best estimate of 360/2 kt.  During the next 24 h,
the cyclone should move slowly north-northwestward on the northeast
side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern
Gulf.  After that time, the system should be steered northward with
a gradual increase in forward speed.  This motion should bring the
center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning.  A
generally northward motion should then continue until the system
dissipates over land.  While the guidance generally agrees with this
scenario, there is considerable spread in both the forecast
direction and speed, with the HWRF being a notable right outlier.
The forecast track is in best agreement with the GFS and the HCCA
corrected consensus model.
 
The current shear is expected to diminish on Saturday as the
upper-level trough moves westward away from the cyclone and the
upper-level winds become southerly. However, the upper-level winds
are forecast to become convergent, which may limit the amount of
convection the system produces.  Most of the guidance shows some
development as the system approaches the coast, so the intensity
forecast calls for modest strengthening to a tropical storm before
the cyclone makes landfall. This forecast is a little below the
intensity consensus.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash
flooding from Saturday through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash
flooding could occur within more urbanized areas along the coastal
plain of the Carolinas.
 
3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 30.8N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 31.3N  79.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 31.7N  79.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 32.4N  80.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 33.7N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  07/0600Z 35.0N  79.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2025 

737 
WTNT23 KNHC 042033
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032025
2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2025
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  79.0W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  79.0W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  79.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.3N  79.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 31.7N  79.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.4N  80.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.7N  80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.0N  79.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N  79.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 

460 
WTNT33 KNHC 042034
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach, South
Carolina to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system.  Additional warnings
and watches will likely be required for portions of this area
later tonight and Saturday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 79.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow
motion toward the north-northwest is expected through Saturday,
followed by a motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to
move near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning.
 
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast
to become a tropical storm on Saturday.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning late Saturday or early Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
Saturday through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an
elevated risk for flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could
occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of
onshore flow.
 
SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip
currents to much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of
days.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven