5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 11:39:42 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 09:26:26 GMT
Archives for June 2025
Tropical Depression Six-E Public Advisory Number 1a
Issued at 600 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
089 WTPZ31 KNHC 291139 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 600 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 ...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 99.7W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Six-E. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 99.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion should begin later today and continue through the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast today, followed by steady to rapid strengthening thereafter, and the system is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Six-E is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early next week. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Six-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep6.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within the watch area Monday and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Six-E will begin increasing along the coast of southwestern Mexico Monday and continue into mid-week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Depression Two Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 08:34:35 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 09:21:19 GMT
Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 08:45:28 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 09:26:26 GMT
Tropical Depression Two Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 08:34:35 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 08:34:35 GMT
Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 The convection associated with the area of low pressure located south of southern Mexico has become much better organized over the past 12 hours. Additionally, a 29/0328 UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a well-defined, closed low-level circulation with maximum winds around 25 kt. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T-2.5 and T-2.0, respectively. The disturbance is upgraded to a tropical depression based on the development of organized convection and a well-defined center. The aforementioned ASCAT pass shows that Tropical Depression Six-E has a large RMW. However, the cyclone is located within a favorable environment with warm SSTs, a moist mid-level troposphere and low to moderate vertical wind shear. The depression is forecast to remain in these favorable conditions for another 3 to 4 days as it parallels the coast of Mexico. Due to the large RMW, only slow strengthening is forecast for the first 24 h. The system is expected to strengthen more quickly once it establishes a stronger convective core, and rapid intensification appears likely to occur by Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance, especially at 60-72 h, and calls for the system to become a significant hurricane. By 96 h, the cyclone should reach cooler water, and rapid weakening is likely in 4 to 5 days, with the system likely becoming a remnant low around day 5. The current motion of the depression is estimated to be westward, or 270/10 kt. The cyclone is forecast to generally move in a direction between west-northwest and northwest for the next few days, toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and the model guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario. The NHC forecast is down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the TVCE consensus. Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A track even a little to the right of the official forecast would bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 13.0N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 13.4N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 17.8N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 18.8N 107.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 20.9N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 22.6N 112.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 08:45:28 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 08:45:28 GMT
Tropical Depression Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
452
FONT12 KNHC 290833
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TAMPICO MX 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TUXPAN MX 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
103 WTNT42 KNHC 290833 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the depression over the Bay of Campeche this morning and found that the system is quite disorganized. In fact, the depression may not even have a well-defined circulation. Even though the structure of the system is poorly organized, the aircraft data and ship observations indicate that the winds have increased some. Based on that information, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 30 kt. The depression has been moving a little to the south of the previous forecast, and the latest initial motion estimate is 290/8 kt. The system is expected to turn northwestward later today as it tracks along the western periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. This motion should take the cyclone inland over eastern Mexico late today or tonight. Most of the strong winds are expected to occur to the north of the center along the coast within the tropical storm warning area this afternoon through early Monday. Some slight additional strengthening is possible before the system moves inland. However, none of the models show much intensification and given the poor initial structure and limited time over water, significant strengthening seems highly unlikely. The system is expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of eastern Mexico on Monday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Two will produce heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern Mexico. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected later today and tonight over portions of eastern Mexico in the tropical storm warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 19.9N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 20.6N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 21.6N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Depression Two Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
408 WTNT22 KNHC 290832 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 95.9W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 95.9W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 95.6W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.6N 96.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.6N 98.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 95.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression Two Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
797 WTNT32 KNHC 290833 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 ...HEAVY RAINS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 95.9W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 95.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected later today. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico late today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible before the system reaches the coast of eastern Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning this afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Depression Two Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 05:49:58 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 03:21:56 GMT
Tropical Depression Two Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 05:49:58 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 03:21:56 GMT
Tropical Depression Two Public Advisory Number 2a
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
000 WTNT32 KNHC 290549 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 100 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 95.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 95.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is anticipated to continue for the next day or two. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to make landfall along the eastern coast of Mexico tonight and move inland early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is expected through tonight, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is expected after landfall, and the system is forecast to dissipate over eastern Mexico on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals of 10 inches possible across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning this afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Depression Two Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 02:34:17 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 03:21:56 GMT
Tropical Depression Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
469
FONT12 KNHC 290232
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
0300 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TAMPICO MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TUXPAN MX 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Two Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 02:34:17 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 02:34:17 GMT
Tropical Depression Two Public Advisory Number 2
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025
199 WTNT32 KNHC 290232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 95.1W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 95.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to make landfall along the Mexico coast Sunday night and move further inland on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some intensification is expected over the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Mexico. Weakening is expected after landfall, and the system is forecast to dissipate over eastern Mexico on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals of 10 inches possible across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning Sunday afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Two Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
198 WTNT22 KNHC 290232 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025 0300 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 95.1W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 95.1W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 94.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.3N 96.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.3N 97.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.1N 98.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 95.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025
554 WTNT42 KNHC 290232 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Tropical Depression Two is poorly organized at this time. During the latter part of the Hurricane Hunter Mission this afternoon, the aircraft was unable to close off the circulation. Since that time, conventional satellite imagery and 2235 UTC SSM/IS overpass show little change in organization, although surface observations suggest the circulation is still closed. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt in agreement with current satellite intensity estimates. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/7. The subtropical ridge to the east and northeast of the cyclone should steer the system generally west-northwestward for the next couple of days, bringing the center to the eastern coast of Mexico near the 24 h point. There is little change in either the track guidance or the track forecast since the last advisory. It should be noted that some erratic motion could occur as the circulation interacts with the coast of Mexico. The cyclone is experiencing 20-25 kt of southwesterly vertical shear. However, the upper-level winds are divergent, which should allow the system to produce significant convection. It is expected that this convection will lead to a little strengthening despite the shear, and based on this the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm near the time of landfall. After landfall, the cyclone is expected to rapidly weaken over eastern Mexico. Given the forecast for the depression to become a tropical storm before landfall, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of their eastern Gulf coastline of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Sunday for portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Tropical Depression Two will produce heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern Mexico. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 19.7N 95.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 20.3N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 21.3N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 22.1N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Two Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Jun 2025 23:34:48 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Jun 2025 21:21:18 GMT
Tropical Depression Two Public Advisory Number 1a
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025
918 WTNT32 KNHC 282332 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 94.7W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 94.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On the following track the depression is expected to make landfall along the Mexico coast on Sunday night and move further inland on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Mexico. The minimum central pressure estimated by Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance data is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals of 10 inches possible across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning Sunday afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Two Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Jun 2025 20:58:04 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Jun 2025 21:21:18 GMT
Tropical Depression Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 28 2025
738
FONT12 KNHC 282051
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
2100 UTC SAT JUN 28 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
VERACRUZ MX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025
000 WTNT42 KNHC 282055 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 The area of low pressure that entered in the Bay of Campeche early this morning (Invest 91L) has slowly improved in organization through the day. Convection had been mostly bursting on the southern portion of the circulation, but is more recently starting to fill in over the northern side. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission has been sampling the system this afternoon, and they were able to close off a circulation center, albeit with not a whole lot of wind. This wind field matches the satellite-derived scatterometer wind data at 1619 UTC which showed a closed circulation, but with peak winds of only 24 kt. However, given the improvement in convective organization with the well-defined circulation noted, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Two this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 25 kt, matching the T1.5/25-kt estimate provided by TAFB. The initial motion of the tropical depression appears to be off to the west-northwest at 290/6 kt. This motion with a slight bend a little more northward is expected through the weekend until the system moves inland over mainland Mexico just after 36 h. The track guidance overall appears to be in pretty good agreement, though with the ECMWF on the south end and GFS on the north end of the guidance envelope. The initial NHC track forecast splits the difference and is quite close to the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. The depression's wind field is still somewhat broad and in the formative stages. In addition, the environmental conditions are not ideal, with some 20-25 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance that should prevent more robust intensification of this cyclone. On the other hand, sea-surface temperatures are fairly warm (28-29 C) and there is ample mid-level moisture to sustain the convective activity. Thus, some slow intensification seems likely, and the intensity forecast shows the depression becoming a tropical storm before making landfall in Mexico. However, once inland after 36 h, the system should quickly weaken and dissipate by the early portion of next week over the rugged high terrain of central Mexico. This intensity forecast is largely in good agreement with the consensus aid HCCA and the most recent HWRF hurricane-regional model run. Given the forecast for the depression to become a tropical storm before landfall, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of their eastern Gulf coastline. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Conditions are expected on Sunday for portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two will impact portions of northeastern Mexico. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 19.3N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 19.7N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 20.8N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 21.9N 97.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 22.1N 98.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Depression Two Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Jun 2025 20:58:04 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Jun 2025 20:58:04 GMT
Tropical Depression Two Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025
593 WTNT32 KNHC 282051 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 94.2W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 94.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On the following track the depression is expected to make landfall along the Mexico coast on Sunday night and move further inland on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Mexico. The minimum central pressure estimated by Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance data is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals of 10 inches possible across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning Sunday afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Depression Two Graphics
Tropical Depression Two Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 28 2025
000 WTNT22 KNHC 282046 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025 2100 UTC SAT JUN 28 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 94.2W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 94.2W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 93.9W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.7N 95.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.8N 96.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.9N 97.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.1N 98.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 94.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Jun 2025 02:46:51 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Jun 2025 03:21:57 GMT