5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:49:00 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 15:22:27 GMT
Archives for June 2025
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 14:36:59 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 15:27:53 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
ZCZC MIATCMEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.7W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.7W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 108.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS NNNN
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 101452 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 Conventional satellite imagery and a recent microwave overpass indicate that Barbara's surface circulation has become exposed to the north of the convective mass. Subsequently, northerly shear appears to be undercutting the outflow aloft. A burst of cold cloud tops of -76 C developed just south of the center overnight. Recent images, however, show the cloud tops have warmed significantly while the cyclone traverses over a sharp temperature gradient of SSTs less than 24 C. The subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 40 to 65 kt, and as a compromise, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. Further weakening is expected through the period as the system continues to move over cooler water and into a more stable and dry surrounding environment. The official intensity forecast shows Barbara degenerating to a remnant low in 24 hr and dissipating by Wednesday night. The NHC intensity forecast is based on the global models and the IVCN intensity consensus model, and is essentially an update of the previous forecast. Based on the aforementioned microwave pass, Barbara has been moving a little to the right and a bit faster than the previous forecast, and is now moving northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Barbara should continue moving toward the northwest through dissipation on Wednesday. The official track forecast lies between the skilled HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 19.9N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 14:36:59 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 14:36:59 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
335 WTPZ32 KNHC 101438 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 ...BARBARA WEAKENING WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 108.7W ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 108.7 West. Barbara is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Barbara is expected to become a remnant low on Wednesday and dissipate by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southernmost portions of Baja California Sur through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
853 WTPZ22 KNHC 101444 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.7W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.7W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 108.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Barbara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
021
FOPZ12 KNHC 101445
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 101447 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 Conventional satellite imagery and a recent microwave overpass indicate that Barbara's surface circulation has become exposed to the north of the convective mass. Subsequently, northerly shear appears to be undercutting the outflow aloft. A burst of cold cloud tops of -76 C developed just south of the center overnight. Recent images, however, show the cloud tops have warmed significantly while the cyclone traverses over a sharp temperature gradient of SSTs less than 24 C. The subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 40 to 65 kt, and as a compromise, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. Further weakening is expected through the period as the system continues to move over cooler water and into a more stable and dry surrounding environment. The official intensity forecast shows Barbara degenerating to a remnant low in 24 hr and dissipating by Wednesday night. The NHC intensity forecast is based on the global models and the IVCN intensity consensus model, and is essentially an update of the previous forecast. Based on the aforementioned microwave pass, Barbara has been moving a little to the right and a bit faster than the previous forecast, and is now moving northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Barbara should continue moving toward the northwest through dissipation on Wednesday. The official track forecast lies between the skilled HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 19.9N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
017 WTPZ23 KNHC 101432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.6W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.6W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.8N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.6N 113.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.8N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.6N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 114.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Cosme (EP3/EP032025)
…COSME BEGINNING TO WEAKEN… …EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY WEDNESDAY… As of 8:00 AM MST Tue Jun 10 the center of Cosme was located near 15.5, -114.6 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
736
FOPZ13 KNHC 101433
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BERG/GIBBS
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 101434 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 Moderate northeasterly shear appears to be displacing Cosme's deep convection to the southwestern quadrant of the circulation. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have begun to decrease, and a blend of these data support an initial intensity of 55 kt. The shear affecting the cyclone is not expected to abate during the next 24 hours, and with Cosme already seeming to be ingesting more stable air, continued weakening is likely over the next day or two. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS, ECMWF, and high-resolution hurricane models all suggest that Cosme's deep convection could dissipate by tonight, and the NHC forecast therefore shows the cyclone becoming post-tropical in 24 hours. After that time, continued weakening is forecast while the remnant low moves over colder waters, and dissipation is expected by Friday. Due to its position to the southwest of Barbara, Cosme's motion has slowed down considerably, and it is estimated to be moving toward the northwest (325 deg) at about 3 kt. While the interaction with Barbara continues, Cosme is expected to turn toward the north and north-northeast and accelerate a bit over the next day or two. The new NHC forecast is not too different from the previous prediction, and perhaps shows more of a bend back to the northwest around 60 hours, following the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 15.5N 114.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.8N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 16.6N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 12/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 18.8N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 19.6N 114.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg/Gibbs
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:51:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:51:34 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
181 WTPZ22 KNHC 100846 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.1W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.1W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.1N 109.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 108.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS
Tropical Storm Barbara Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 100847 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 ...BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 108.1W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 108.1 West. Barbara is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Barbara is expected to dissipate by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southernmost portions of Baja California through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs
Tropical Storm Barbara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 100847
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 110W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 100847 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 Barbara has lost a significant portion of its convection over the past 12 hours or so. The latest current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are still in the 55-65 kt range, but the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 45-55 kt range. Based on the degraded convective appearance on geostationary satellite imagery and the latest intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt. Barbara has been moving toward the northwest a little slower than before, or 310/7 kt. Barbara is forecast to continue moving generally toward the northwest as it is steered by weak ridging to its north and Tropical Storm Cosme, located to its southwest. Only very minor adjustments have been made to the previous NHC track forecast, which lies near the various consensus models. The storm already has crossed the 26C isotherm and will continue moving over progressively colder water over the next day. The cold water will cause Barbara to continue weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous official forecast, and is near the latest intensity model consensus. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite products both show the cyclone losing its convection entirely by about 24 hours, with dissipation in 36 hours. The NHC forecast follows the scenario depicted by those models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 19.1N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 20.1N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs
Tropical Storm Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:49:00 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:49:00 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Cosme (EP3/EP032025)
…COSME HOLDING STEADY… As of 2:00 AM MST Tue Jun 10 the center of Cosme was located near 15.3, -114.5 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
000 WTPZ23 KNHC 100849 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 114.5W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 114.5W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.5N 114.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.4N 113.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.7N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS
Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
378
FOPZ13 KNHC 100849
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
15N 115W 50 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
15N 115W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100850 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 The convective appearance of Cosme has changed little since the previous advisory. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, and the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 54-59 kt. The initial intensity is held at 60 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of the intensity estimates. Cosme continues to move very slowly toward the northwest, with motion estimated at 300/4 kt. A slow motion, perhaps more toward the north, should continue for at least the next 12 h since the overall steering currents are weak, due to Barbara's current position in relation to Cosme. However, as Barbara weakens, Cosme will accelerate north-northeastward in response to ridging located to the northwest of the cyclone. Very little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, and the latest forecast is near the various consensus models. Cosme is forecast to remain in favorable enough conditions for the next 24 h such that the cyclone might be able to maintain its intensity or only weaken very slowly. However, after that time, as Cosme gains latitude, it will encounter cooler water and drier air. Cosme is forecast to lose its convection and become post-tropical on Wednesday, in agreement with the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery products. The post-tropical low is then forecast to gradually weaken and dissipate by 72 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 15.3N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 15.5N 114.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 17.4N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 12/0600Z 18.7N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
926 WTPZ23 KNHC 100230 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 0300 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 114.2W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 114.2W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 114.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.9N 114.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 18.2N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.3N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Cosme Public Advisory Number 7
Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
014 WTPZ33 KNHC 100230 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 ...COSME COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS LATER ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 114.2W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 114.2 West. Cosme is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Tuesday, followed by a faster north-northeast motion late Tuesday through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Cosme could still become a hurricane overnight before weakening begins later on Tuesday. Cosme is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
597
FOPZ13 KNHC 100230
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
0300 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
15N 115W 34 59 6(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
15N 115W 50 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 115W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
853 WTPZ22 KNHC 100231 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 0300 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.8W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.8W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 107.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.8N 109.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.7N 110.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.2N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.3N 111.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 7
Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
854 WTPZ43 KNHC 100231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 Cosme remains at the threshold of hurricane strength. Convection continues to be potent south and east of the center, though it is weak on the northwestern side. Unfortunately there haven't been any recent microwave passes to assess the inner-core structure. Since the latest blend of objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates remains near 60 kt, that value will be kept as the initial wind speed. Cosme is moving along a thermal ridge in the SSTs, and it still could become a hurricane overnight before reaching less favorable conditions tomorrow morning. Steady or rapid weakening is probable by late Tuesday due to a combination of decreasing SSTs and intrusions of dry/stable air. The tropical cyclone should lose all convection early on Wednesday and become a remnant low between 36 and 48 h. No significant changes were made on this advisory to the intensity forecast. The storm has slowed down, only moving northwestward at 3 kt, and this general motion should continue through tonight. After that time, a turn to the north-northeast is expected as Cosme moves toward a weakness left behind by Hurricane Barbara to its northeast. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, near or a smidge left of the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 15.2N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 15.5N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 15.9N 114.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 18.2N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 19.3N 113.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Barbara Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 100231 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 ...BARBARA NOW A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 107.8W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 107.8 West. Barbara is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next day or so followed by a gradual westward turn. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Barbara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 100231
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
0300 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 110W 34 15 18(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH