5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:41:02 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 21:22:28 GMT
Archives for June 2025
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:35:42 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 21:27:53 GMT
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:35:42 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:35:42 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Discussion Number 11
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
361 WTPZ42 KNHC 102037 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 This afternoon's satellite presentation shows Barbara quickly spinning down. Deep convection associated with the cyclone has diminished considerably during the past few hours and has revealed an exposed surface circulation well to the northeast of a mid-level center. The initial intensity is once again lowered, to 35 kt, and is based on a blend of the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Based on current convective trends and the global models, Barbara should become a remnant low later tonight while it continues moving over cooler waters and into a harsh atmospheric environment. Barbara has been moving to the right of track within the peripheral steering flow of the low- to mid-level high anchored over central Mexico. Consequently, the initial motion is estimated to be northward or 010/7 kt. Barbara should continue this general motion through dissipation on Wednesday. The official track forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous advisory and lies close to the ECMWF and TVCE consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 20.9N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 21.7N 107.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Mora/Roberts
Tropical Storm Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:41:02 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:41:02 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 11
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
455 WTPZ22 KNHC 102032 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 108.1W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 108.1W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.7N 107.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 108.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Cosme Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025
160 WTPZ33 KNHC 102033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025 ...COSME CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 115.1W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 115.1 West. Cosme is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north and northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected through Wednesday, followed by a turn back to the north-northwest on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Cosme is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by late Thursday or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
161 WTPZ23 KNHC 102033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.1W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.1W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.2N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.1N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
698
FOPZ13 KNHC 102033
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 115W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Barbara Public Advisory Number 11
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
063 WTPZ32 KNHC 102034 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 ...BARBARA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 108.1W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 108.1 West. Barbara is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Barbara is expected to become a remnant low tonight and dissipate on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southernmost portions of Baja California Sur through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Mora/Roberts
Tropical Storm Barbara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
091
FOPZ12 KNHC 102034
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025
193 WTPZ43 KNHC 102034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Although Cosme's low-level center is obscured by high-level cirrus, it does appear to be displaced a bit to the northeast of the remaining deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease, with objective numbers ranging between 35-45 kt, and subjective Dvorak CI numbers between 45-55 kt. The advisory intensity is set at 45 kt based on a blend of these numbers. An earlier ASCAT pass showed winds just over 40 kt in the southwestern quadrant, but the southeastern quadrant, where there could be stronger winds, was not sampled. ASCAT and recent visible imagery suggest Cosme's center is a little west of where it was placed this morning. Still, the storm has turned north-northwestward with an initial motion of 330/3 kt. Cosme is expected to turn northward and then northeastward and speed up a bit through Wednesday, before turning back to the north-northwest on Thursday. This track will take Cosme over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Combined with moderate-to-strong northeasterly shear, these conditions should cause quick weakening, and GFS- and ECWMF-based simulated satellite images suggest that Cosme will lose its deep convection overnight. As a result, the NHC official forecast shows Cosme becoming a remnant low within 24 hours, with dissipation now expected by 60 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 15.8N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 18.2N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 19.1N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 15:45:00 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 15:45:00 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:49:00 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 15:22:27 GMT
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 14:36:59 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 15:27:53 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
ZCZC MIATCMEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.7W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.7W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 108.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS NNNN
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 101452 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 Conventional satellite imagery and a recent microwave overpass indicate that Barbara's surface circulation has become exposed to the north of the convective mass. Subsequently, northerly shear appears to be undercutting the outflow aloft. A burst of cold cloud tops of -76 C developed just south of the center overnight. Recent images, however, show the cloud tops have warmed significantly while the cyclone traverses over a sharp temperature gradient of SSTs less than 24 C. The subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 40 to 65 kt, and as a compromise, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. Further weakening is expected through the period as the system continues to move over cooler water and into a more stable and dry surrounding environment. The official intensity forecast shows Barbara degenerating to a remnant low in 24 hr and dissipating by Wednesday night. The NHC intensity forecast is based on the global models and the IVCN intensity consensus model, and is essentially an update of the previous forecast. Based on the aforementioned microwave pass, Barbara has been moving a little to the right and a bit faster than the previous forecast, and is now moving northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Barbara should continue moving toward the northwest through dissipation on Wednesday. The official track forecast lies between the skilled HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 19.9N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 14:36:59 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 14:36:59 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
335 WTPZ32 KNHC 101438 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 ...BARBARA WEAKENING WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 108.7W ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 108.7 West. Barbara is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Barbara is expected to become a remnant low on Wednesday and dissipate by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southernmost portions of Baja California Sur through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
853 WTPZ22 KNHC 101444 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.7W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.7W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 108.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Barbara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
021
FOPZ12 KNHC 101445
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 101447 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 Conventional satellite imagery and a recent microwave overpass indicate that Barbara's surface circulation has become exposed to the north of the convective mass. Subsequently, northerly shear appears to be undercutting the outflow aloft. A burst of cold cloud tops of -76 C developed just south of the center overnight. Recent images, however, show the cloud tops have warmed significantly while the cyclone traverses over a sharp temperature gradient of SSTs less than 24 C. The subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 40 to 65 kt, and as a compromise, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. Further weakening is expected through the period as the system continues to move over cooler water and into a more stable and dry surrounding environment. The official intensity forecast shows Barbara degenerating to a remnant low in 24 hr and dissipating by Wednesday night. The NHC intensity forecast is based on the global models and the IVCN intensity consensus model, and is essentially an update of the previous forecast. Based on the aforementioned microwave pass, Barbara has been moving a little to the right and a bit faster than the previous forecast, and is now moving northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Barbara should continue moving toward the northwest through dissipation on Wednesday. The official track forecast lies between the skilled HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 19.9N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
017 WTPZ23 KNHC 101432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.6W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.6W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.8N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.6N 113.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.8N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.6N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 114.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Cosme (EP3/EP032025)
…COSME BEGINNING TO WEAKEN… …EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY WEDNESDAY… As of 8:00 AM MST Tue Jun 10 the center of Cosme was located near 15.5, -114.6 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
736
FOPZ13 KNHC 101433
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BERG/GIBBS
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 101434 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 Moderate northeasterly shear appears to be displacing Cosme's deep convection to the southwestern quadrant of the circulation. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have begun to decrease, and a blend of these data support an initial intensity of 55 kt. The shear affecting the cyclone is not expected to abate during the next 24 hours, and with Cosme already seeming to be ingesting more stable air, continued weakening is likely over the next day or two. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS, ECMWF, and high-resolution hurricane models all suggest that Cosme's deep convection could dissipate by tonight, and the NHC forecast therefore shows the cyclone becoming post-tropical in 24 hours. After that time, continued weakening is forecast while the remnant low moves over colder waters, and dissipation is expected by Friday. Due to its position to the southwest of Barbara, Cosme's motion has slowed down considerably, and it is estimated to be moving toward the northwest (325 deg) at about 3 kt. While the interaction with Barbara continues, Cosme is expected to turn toward the north and north-northeast and accelerate a bit over the next day or two. The new NHC forecast is not too different from the previous prediction, and perhaps shows more of a bend back to the northwest around 60 hours, following the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 15.5N 114.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.8N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 16.6N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 12/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 18.8N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 19.6N 114.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg/Gibbs
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:51:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:51:34 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
181 WTPZ22 KNHC 100846 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.1W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.1W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.1N 109.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 108.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS
Tropical Storm Barbara Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 100847 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 ...BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 108.1W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 108.1 West. Barbara is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Barbara is expected to dissipate by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southernmost portions of Baja California through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs
Tropical Storm Barbara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 100847
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
0900 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 110W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS