5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 20:36:10 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 20:36:10 GMT
Archives for November 17, 2024
Tropical Depression Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
591
FONT14 KNHC 172035
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Depression Sara Public Advisory Number 17
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 172034 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sara Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...SARA STILL ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 89.5W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sara was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 89.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a turn northwestward is expected by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move over the Yucatan Peninsula today before it opens up into a trough either tonight or tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Sara is expected to become a remnant low or open up into a trough over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Depression Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Depression Sara Forecast Advisory Number 17
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 172034 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 89.5W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 89.5W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 89.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.9N 91.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 89.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Depression Sara Forecast Discussion Number 17
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
559 WTNT44 KNHC 172035 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Sara Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Since making landfall, Sara appears to be gradually weakening as it straddles the area between Mexico and Guatemala this afternoon. Convective activity has remained somewhat intact near the center, though the low-level cloud motions from the GOES-16 1 minute mesoscale sector suggest the circulation definition is already becoming more diffuse. The initial intensity remains 30 kt this advisory after the system was downgraded to a depression earlier at 1800 UTC. As expected Sara has sped up a bit today, with its initial motion now estimated at 300/10 kt. A turn more northwestward is expected tonight before the depression opens up into a trough at some point tonight or tomorrow, in good agreement with the bulk of the forecast aids. As previously discussed, the track aids do extend further north than the current NHC forecast track into the Gulf of Mexico, mainly because they track the remnant vorticity of the system, even though it will no longer be a tropical cyclone. However, the moisture plume associated with the remnants of Sara is anticipated to contribute to enhanced rainfall along the U.S. Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, where the Weather Prediction Center currently has a slight risk for excessive rainfall that day. Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from the country's government indicate reports of more than 40 inches of rain at some locations. Heavy rainfall is continuing over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America this afternoon. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides as Sara moves further inland. 2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Sara is winding down across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding impacts will continue. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 17.8N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0600Z 18.9N 91.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Depression Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 17:35:15 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 15:22:51 GMT
Tropical Depression Sara Public Advisory Number 16A
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 171735 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1200 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...SARA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED BUT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 89.0W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The governments of Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico have discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for their coastal regions. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sara was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 89.0 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn northwestward with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move further inland over the Yucatan Peninsula today before it opens up into a trough by tonight or tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to continue as the depression moves further inland, and Sara is expected to become a remnant low before it opens up into a trough over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Depression Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 16
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 171530 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 88.4W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 88.4W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 87.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 91.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 88.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 171445
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 14:46:40 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 14:46:40 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 16
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 171444 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...SARA NOW JUST INLAND OVER BELIZE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 88.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 88.4 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn northwestward or north-northwestward with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move further inland over the Yucatan Peninsula today before it opens up into a trough by tonight or tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast as the storm moves further inland, and Sara is expected to become a remnant low before it opens up into a trough over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. Recently, a surface station at Calabash Caye offshore of the Belize mainland reported a sustained wind of 31 mph (50 km/h) with a gust up to 41 mph (67 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area in portions of Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 16
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 171445 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Sara made landfall this morning at around 1400 UTC along the coast of Belize, near Dangriga. Before landfall, Sara made a bit of a convective resurgence near the center, with bursting deep convection and some GLM lightning flashes occuring. Radar out of Belize City also showed a modest attempt at banding on the southern side of the tropical storm. With that said, the surface observations around the circulation of Sara are unimpressive, with the highest sustained wind at Calabash Caye near this convection of only 27 kt. A blend of subjective and objective satellite estimates supported an intensity of 35 kt at landfall and that remains the value for this advisory. The tropical storm has been moving west-northwestward up until landfall, estimated at 290/4 kt. The mid-level ridging that is now steering the cyclone is pivoting more east, and this should result in Sara turning more northwestward or north-northwestward as it moves across the Yucatan, eventually emerging into the Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours. However, the system is expected to weaken over land, ultimately degenerating into a trough of low pressure before it moves back over water in the Gulf of Mexico. I will note that track aids extend further north than the current NHC forecast track into the Gulf of Mexico, mainly because these aids are tracking the remnant vorticity of the system, even though it will no longer be a tropical cyclone. As discussed yesterday, the moisture plume associated with the remnants of Sara could aid in enhanced rainfall along the U.S. Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, where WPC currently has a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from the country's government indicate reports of more than 40 inches of rain at some locations. These heavy rains are now spreading westward across portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides as Sara moves further inland. 2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara is winding down across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding impacts will continue. 3. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected during the next several hours along portions of the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.1N 88.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 19.5N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 11:40:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 09:22:53 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 15A
Issued at 600 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 171140 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 600 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...SARA NEARING LANDFALL ALONG THE BELIZE COAST WITH HEAVY RAINS MOVING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 87.9W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 87.9 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will make landfall in Belize later this morning or around midday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Only small fluctuations in strength are anticipated until landfall. Weakening is forecast after the storm moves inland, and dissipation is expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 40 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area in portions of Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 08:35:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 08:35:34 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 170831 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 The center of Sara is nearing the coast of Belize. Satellite and radar images indicate that the storm's convective pattern remains ragged with patches of deep convection occurring to the north and east of the center. The objective and subjective Dvorak estimates range from 25 to about 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. The storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at 4 kt. A building ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to move faster to the west-northwest during the next day or so. This motion should bring the center of Sara to the Belize coast late this morning or around midday. Although a 24-hour forecast point is provided, most of the models show Sara opening into a trough by then over northern Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula. Sara is expected to hold steady in strength until it reaches the coast, but weakening is expected after the system moves inland. Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from the country's government indicate that there has been some reports of around 40 inches of rain. These heavy rains are now spreading westward across portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected during the next several hours along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 16.8N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 17.3N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 170831
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 08:32:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 08:32:21 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 15
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 170830 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 87.8W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 87.8W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 88.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 87.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 15
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 170830 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 87.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 87.8 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will make landfall in Belize late this morning or around midday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall. Weakening is forecast after the storm moves inland, and dissipation is expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 40 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area in portions of Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 05:31:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 03:22:48 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 14A
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 170531 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1200 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...SARA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 87.6W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 87.6 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected until landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move over Belize later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall later today, with dissipation expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 40 inches are expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area in portions of Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 170232
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 45 3(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 02:32:49 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 02:32:49 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 170233 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Sara remains a poorly organized tropical storm, with the most significant banding features in the northern semicircle well away from the low-level center. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level and dropsonde data indicate that the central pressure has risen to 1001 mb and the winds have decreased. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, which are mostly occurring in the rain bands well away from the center. Aircraft fixes indicate the storm is moving slowly to the west-northwest. Sara should slightly accelerate in that direction as mid-level ridging strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico through tomorrow. The storm is expected to make landfall on Sunday on the coast of Belize, and very little change was made to the NHC forecast with guidance consistent from the last cycle. Little change in intensity is expected before landfall due to the disorganized nature of Sara, and the new intensity forecast is slightly lower than the last one. The weakened cyclone should dissipate over the southern portion of the Yucatan peninsula by early Monday. The primary hazard associated with Sara continues to be potentially catastrophic flash flooding, with substantial rainfall continuing to occur near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 16.5N 87.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 16.7N 88.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 17.6N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 170232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE THREAT CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 87.3W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 87.3 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected until landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move over Belize during the day on Sunday. Air Force Reserve aircraft data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall on Sunday, with dissipation expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches) based on dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 40 inches are expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in portions of Honduras through early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning overnight. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 170232 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 87.3W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 87.3W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 87.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.7N 88.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.6N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 87.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE