Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 270234 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Kristy's low-level cloud field is starting to lose some definition, but there has still been bursting of deep convection to the north of the center. Dvorak CI numbers of 3.5 from TAFB and 3.0 from SAB, combined with objective satellite estimates, support a current intensity of 50 kt. Due to the expected continuation of very strong southerly shear, as well as sea surface temperatures of 23-24 degrees Celsius, Kristy is forecast to weaken below tropical storm strength and become a remnant low during the day on Sunday. Model fields show the circulation opening up into a trough by 36 hours, and that is when dissipation is now shown. Kristy has turned north-northwestward and slowed down further (330/10 kt). However, now that the circulation is becoming increasingly shallow, low-level ridging to the north will cause the cyclone to turn back toward the northwest and west tonight and on Sunday before it dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 21.5N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 22.2N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 22.3N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg