Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024
275 WTPZ42 KNHC 260233 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Kristy's deepest convection is being displaced to the north of the center due to strong southerly shear, diagnosed at 30 kt by UW-CIMSS, although some convective elements are still trying to form within the southern eyewall. Subjective Dvorak CI numbers and objective satellite estimates now range between 80-100 kt, and Kristy's intensity is therefore set at a blend of 90 kt. Rapid weakening is forecast to continue as the hurricane encounters even stronger shear--and cooler sea surface temperatures--over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows previous official forecast trends and the latest consensus aids. Model-simulated satellite data indicate that Kristy should lose its deep convection by Sunday, and the cyclone is therefore expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours. The low is forecast to open up into a trough on Monday. Kristy is moving northwestward (310/13 kt), steered by a strong mid-level ridge centered over the Baja California peninsula. The ridge should keep Kristy on a northwestward or north-northwestward trajectory for the next 36 hours, but once the cyclone weakens to a remnant low, it is expected to turn westward and slow down considerably when it runs into a low-level ridge to the north. The track models are in good agreement on this scenario, and no significant track changes were made from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 17.6N 126.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.9N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 20.9N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 22.4N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 22.7N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg