Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 252037 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Latest satellite images continue to depict that Kristy is struggling within an increasingly hostile environment. The convective pattern has continued to become more asymmetric, as southerly vertical wind shear continues to increase, displacing most of the convection over the northern semicircle. The eyewall has weakened as well, with convective cloud tops warming. The inner core degradation was further confirmed by a recent GMI microwave pass. Subjective and objective intensity estimates continue to plummet this afternoon and range between 90-105 kt. Given the satellite presentation, inner structure degradation, and these estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt for this advisory. Kristy is moving toward the northwest with an estimated motion of 305/12 kt. The system will move northwestward to north-northwestward for the next couple of days, steered along the southwestern periphery of a ridge located over the eastern Pacific. Towards the end of the period, as the system weakens and becomes a remnant low, the system's forward speed will also decrease with a turn toward the west-southwest within the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is very near the previous one. The environment surrounding Kristy continues to become more and more unfavorable. Vertical wind shear is forecast to continue to increase, with cooling sea-surface temperatures and drier mid-levels of the atmosphere. Therefore, steady to rapid weakening is anticipated through the forecast period. Model simulated satellite data depict that Kristy will struggle to produce convection late this weekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 48 h, and dissipating into a trough by 72 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these model trends. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 16.8N 125.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.0N 127.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 22.0N 129.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 22.8N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 28/0600Z 22.7N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly