Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250835 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Kristy is starting to lose organization due to increasing shear, with the eye becoming ragged and cloud-filled and the surrounding convection becoming less symmetric. Satellite intensity estimates have been decreasing and now generally range from 115-140 kt. Based on the the decreasing trend, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 130 kt. Kristy is now moving west-northwestward with the initial motion is 295/12 kt. During the next 2-3 days, the cyclone should move northwestward to north-northwestward as it goes around the southwest side of a mid- to upper-level ridge centered near Baja California. Some decrease in the forward speed is expected by the end of the forecast period as the cyclone shears apart, with the low-level center moving slowly westward between 60-72 h. The models have again trended a little to the north, especially from 24-48 h. Thus, this part of the forecast track has also been nudged northward. The remnants of Kristy should move southwestward in the low-level wind flow. Vertical shear over the hurricane is going to increase from light-to-moderate this morning to strong by 24 h. In addition, the forecast track takes the system over steadily decreasing sea surface temperatures. Based on this, gradual weakening is expected for the next 12 h or so, followed by rapid weakening for the remainder of the cyclone's life. Kristy is expected to drop below hurricane strength by 48 h, and it is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 72 h. The global models forecast the low to weaken to a trough by 96 h, and the intensity forecast follows that in showing dissipation by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 15.2N 123.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 16.2N 125.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 17.9N 127.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 19.9N 128.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 21.7N 129.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 22.8N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 23.0N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven