Issued at 500 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 242033 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 500 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Satellite imagery continues to show a circular eye that has been warming through the afternoon, with varying degrees of clearing. While the inner eye has not been as clear over the past few hours, subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have either increased or held steady, with a data-T value of T/7.0 and T/6.5, from TAFB and SAB respectively. UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates have increased as well. Using an average of these intensity estimates and latest trends in satellite images, the initial intensity is set to 140 kt for this advisory. Therefore, Kristy has strengthened into a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Kristy's forward motion remains steady, estimated at 270/14 kt while being steered by a ridge over the northeastern Pacific. The hurricane will gradually round the southwestern portion of the ridge over the next day or so, with a turn to the northwest and then the north-northwest occurring through this weekend as a trough to the west begins to influence Kristy's motion. The system will rapidly weaken by the end of this weekend, with the remnants then turning west-southwestward in the low-level steering flow. The latest NHC track forecast has once again shifted slightly to the right, closer to the consensus aids, but remains on the southwest side of the guidance envelope. For about the next 24 hours, Kristy looks to remain in a favorable environment characterized by warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear. Some slight fluctuations are possible in the short term, especially if the system has another eyewall replacement cycle. The environment then rapidly becomes hostile as the hurricane enters an area of stronger vertical wind shear, drier air, and cooler sea surface temperatures. The intensity guidance remains insistent on rapid weakening occurring through the end of the forecast period. Model-simulated satellite imagery also mirrors this trend, suggesting that Kristy will lose convection and become post-tropical by 72 h, degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h, and open into a trough by 120 h. The NHC intensity forecast also follows these trends with only minor adjustments made this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 14.2N 121.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 16.1N 125.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.7N 127.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 19.8N 129.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 21.7N 130.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 22.2N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 28/1800Z 21.4N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/B. Adams