Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 240835 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Kristy looks a little less impressive this evening, as satellite imagery indicates that the eye has clouded over. There are hints in infrared imagery that the hurricane is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, although there are no recent microwave images to definitively show this. The subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little over the past 6 h, and based on this the initial intensity is decreased to 130 kt. The wind radii have been revised based on recent scatterometer overpasses showing that Kristy has gotten a little larger in size. The initial motion is now 270/17 kt. Kristy is currently on the south side of a deep-layer ridge over the northeastern Pacific. A turn to the west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two as the hurricane moves along the southwestern periphery of the ridge. A sharper turn to the northwest or north-northwest is expected by 48 h as Kristy moves between the ridge and a large mid- to -upper-level trough located east and northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. By the end of the forecast period, Kristy is expected to shear apart, with the cyclone or its remnants turning west-southwestward in the low-level flow. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track, and it lies near or just to the southwest of the consensus models. Kristy is expected to remain over warm water and in a conducive light shear environment for the next 24-36 h. Based on this and an expectation that the hurricane will complete an eyewall replacement, the intensity forecast shows some re-intensification during this time. After 36 h, the environment becomes much more hostile, with strong shear, a much drier air mass, and cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. All guidance agrees that rapid weakening should occur, and the new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance. Kristy should lose its convection and become post-tropical by 96 h, and while the forecast includes a 120 h point as a remnant low there is a possibility the system will degenerate to a trough by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 14.1N 118.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 14.9N 123.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 16.0N 126.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 17.7N 128.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 19.5N 129.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 21.1N 131.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 21.7N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven