5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 02:33:16 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 03:22:24 GMT
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 02:32:28 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 03:27:43 GMT
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 11
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
210 WTPZ23 KNHC 110230 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 114.9W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 45SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 114.9W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.0W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.4N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.3N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Cosme Public Advisory Number 11
Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 110230 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 ...COSME FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 114.9W ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 114.9 West. Cosme is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Wednesday, followed by a turn back to the north-northwest on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Cosme is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by late Thursday or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 110230
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 11
Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
670 WTPZ43 KNHC 110231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 Cosme is quickly on the path to becoming a remnant low. Satellite images show that the low- and mid-level centers have separated, with the low-level circulation well northeast of the mid-level one now. Dvorak intensity estimates continue to fall, and the initial intensity is set to 40 kt. Further weakening is anticipated due to persistent shear, cool waters and dry air entrainment. Cosme should transition into a remnant low on Wednesday morning and totally dissipate in a couple of days. The storm has taken its long-awaited turn, now moving slowly to the north-northeast. Cosme, or what's left of it, should move a little faster to the north late Wednesday and then dissipate into a trough of low pressure due to unfavorable environmental conditions. No significant changes were made to the track or intensity forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 15.9N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 16.4N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0000Z 17.3N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Public Advisory Number 12
Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 110231 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 ...BARBARA HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 108.0W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 108.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and the system is expected to dissipate in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Pasch
Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 12
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 110231 TCMEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.0W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.0W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.0N 107.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 108.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 110231
PWSEP2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARBARA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
103 WTPZ42 KNHC 110232 TCDEP2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 Earlier today, the mid-level circulation of Barbara was sheared off to the southwest. As a result, all that remains of the system is a weak low-level swirl as evidenced by an AMSR-E microwave image from a few hours ago. The system lacks sufficient deep convection to qualify as a tropical cyclone, and this will be the last advisory on Barbara. Assuming a steady spin down of the circulation, the current intensity is set at 25 kt. The remnant low is drifting northward at about 010/4 kt. This general motion should continue into Wednesday and until the system dissipates. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 21.2N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 11/1200Z 22.0N 107.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 02:32:28 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 02:32:28 GMT
Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 02:33:16 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 02:33:16 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:41:02 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 21:22:28 GMT
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:35:42 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 21:27:53 GMT
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:35:42 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:35:42 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Discussion Number 11
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
361 WTPZ42 KNHC 102037 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 This afternoon's satellite presentation shows Barbara quickly spinning down. Deep convection associated with the cyclone has diminished considerably during the past few hours and has revealed an exposed surface circulation well to the northeast of a mid-level center. The initial intensity is once again lowered, to 35 kt, and is based on a blend of the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Based on current convective trends and the global models, Barbara should become a remnant low later tonight while it continues moving over cooler waters and into a harsh atmospheric environment. Barbara has been moving to the right of track within the peripheral steering flow of the low- to mid-level high anchored over central Mexico. Consequently, the initial motion is estimated to be northward or 010/7 kt. Barbara should continue this general motion through dissipation on Wednesday. The official track forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous advisory and lies close to the ECMWF and TVCE consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 20.9N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 21.7N 107.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Mora/Roberts
Tropical Storm Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:41:02 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:41:02 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 11
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
455 WTPZ22 KNHC 102032 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 108.1W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 108.1W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.7N 107.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 108.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Cosme Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025
160 WTPZ33 KNHC 102033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025 ...COSME CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 115.1W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 115.1 West. Cosme is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north and northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected through Wednesday, followed by a turn back to the north-northwest on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Cosme is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by late Thursday or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
161 WTPZ23 KNHC 102033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.1W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.1W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.2N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.1N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
698
FOPZ13 KNHC 102033
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 115W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Barbara Public Advisory Number 11
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
063 WTPZ32 KNHC 102034 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 ...BARBARA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 108.1W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 108.1 West. Barbara is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Barbara is expected to become a remnant low tonight and dissipate on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southernmost portions of Baja California Sur through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Mora/Roberts
Tropical Storm Barbara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
091
FOPZ12 KNHC 102034
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
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FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025
193 WTPZ43 KNHC 102034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Although Cosme's low-level center is obscured by high-level cirrus, it does appear to be displaced a bit to the northeast of the remaining deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease, with objective numbers ranging between 35-45 kt, and subjective Dvorak CI numbers between 45-55 kt. The advisory intensity is set at 45 kt based on a blend of these numbers. An earlier ASCAT pass showed winds just over 40 kt in the southwestern quadrant, but the southeastern quadrant, where there could be stronger winds, was not sampled. ASCAT and recent visible imagery suggest Cosme's center is a little west of where it was placed this morning. Still, the storm has turned north-northwestward with an initial motion of 330/3 kt. Cosme is expected to turn northward and then northeastward and speed up a bit through Wednesday, before turning back to the north-northwest on Thursday. This track will take Cosme over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Combined with moderate-to-strong northeasterly shear, these conditions should cause quick weakening, and GFS- and ECWMF-based simulated satellite images suggest that Cosme will lose its deep convection overnight. As a result, the NHC official forecast shows Cosme becoming a remnant low within 24 hours, with dissipation now expected by 60 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 15.8N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 18.2N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 19.1N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 15:45:00 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 15:45:00 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:49:00 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 15:22:27 GMT
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 14:36:59 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 15:27:53 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025
ZCZC MIATCMEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.7W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.7W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 108.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS NNNN
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 101452 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 Conventional satellite imagery and a recent microwave overpass indicate that Barbara's surface circulation has become exposed to the north of the convective mass. Subsequently, northerly shear appears to be undercutting the outflow aloft. A burst of cold cloud tops of -76 C developed just south of the center overnight. Recent images, however, show the cloud tops have warmed significantly while the cyclone traverses over a sharp temperature gradient of SSTs less than 24 C. The subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 40 to 65 kt, and as a compromise, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. Further weakening is expected through the period as the system continues to move over cooler water and into a more stable and dry surrounding environment. The official intensity forecast shows Barbara degenerating to a remnant low in 24 hr and dissipating by Wednesday night. The NHC intensity forecast is based on the global models and the IVCN intensity consensus model, and is essentially an update of the previous forecast. Based on the aforementioned microwave pass, Barbara has been moving a little to the right and a bit faster than the previous forecast, and is now moving northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Barbara should continue moving toward the northwest through dissipation on Wednesday. The official track forecast lies between the skilled HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 19.9N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 14:36:59 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 14:36:59 GMT