5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 08:34:06 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 09:21:39 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 08:34:06 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 08:34:06 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 130831 TCMEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0900 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 100.8W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 100.8W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 100.6W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.7N 101.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.9N 103.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.0N 104.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.9N 106.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.4N 108.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.6N 110.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 18.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 100.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025
372 WTPZ44 KNHC 130832 TCDEP4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the disturbance is gradually becoming better organized, with the convective banding increasing and the circulation becoming better defined. However, the system does not yet have either enough organized convection or a sufficiently well-defined circulation to be considered a tropical cyclone. The scatterometer data showed 25-30 kt winds about 120 n mi south and southeast of the center, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 335/8 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the depression is currently south of a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and northern Mexico and southeast of a mid- to upper-level ridge over Baja California and the adjacent Pacific. The dynamical models forecast that the trough will weaken and move eastward during the next 2-3 days, with the ridge building eastward to the north of the system. This evolution should cause the disturbance to turn northwestward later today, followed by a west-northwestward and westward motion later in the forecast period. The forecast guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is close to the various consensus models and just a little north of the previous track. There is a possibility of erratic motion today as the system gets better organized, and this may affect how close the system will come to the coast of Mexico. The forecast track keeps the system over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36-48 h. However, a combination of the broad structure and moderate easterly vertical wind shear is likely to slow the development. The new intensity guidance is a little lower than for the previous forecast, and the forecast peak intensity of 60 kt is near the high end of the guidance envelope. After 48 h, cooler waters and drier mid-level air will lead to steady weakening, and the system is forecast to dissipate by 120 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 12.8N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/1800Z 13.7N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 14/0600Z 14.9N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 16.0N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 16.9N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 17.4N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 17.6N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 18.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025
250 WTPZ34 KNHC 130832 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 100.8W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning may be required for portions of the watch area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 100.8 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025
533
FOPZ14 KNHC 130832
PWSEP4
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0900 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 105W 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 5(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
15N 105W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 100W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) X(22)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 05:34:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 03:21:36 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Public Advisory Number 2a
Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025
727 WTPZ34 KNHC 130531 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 1200 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 ...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.2N 100.7W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 100.7 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 02:37:07 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 03:21:36 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130235 TCDEP4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 Satellite images show the disturbance is still broad with little improvement in organization this evening. There is minimal convective banding, and most of the thunderstorm activity is displaced well away from the cloud system center. The broad low remains a 30-kt disturbance for this advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 6 kt, though it is uncertain due to the lack of a well-defined center. The near-term motion could be erratic and slightly more northward overnight while the disturbance organizes and forms a center. But, the track guidance agrees that as the system organizes and deepens, it will resume a northwestward motion and move parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Little change is shown in the updated NHC forecast, which remains near the simple and corrected consensus aids. However, larger changes could be required in future issuances depending on where and when a center eventually forms. The broad structure does not suggest strengthening will occur quickly in the near term. Once the system consolidates, the warm sea surface temperatures and moist environment appear generally favorable for intensification. Although the regional models show the system reaching hurricane status, moderate (15-20 kt) easterly shear shown by the global models for the next several days could make it difficult for that much strengthening to occur. For now, the NHC intensity forecast shows the system peaking as a strong tropical storm, in line with the simple intensity consensus. Cooler waters and drier mid-level air will lead to weakening during the latter half of the forecast period, and the system is forecast to dissipate by day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/1200Z 12.9N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 14/0000Z 14.1N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 15.2N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 17.0N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 17.5N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 02:37:07 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 02:37:07 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025
036 WTPZ24 KNHC 130233 TCMEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.6W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.6W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.9N 100.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.1N 102.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.2N 103.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 100.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 130233
PWSEP4
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 20(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52)
15N 105W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 100W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) X(22)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Public Advisory Number 2
Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025
992 WTPZ34 KNHC 130233 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 ...DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 100.6W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 100.6 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday and continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 23:38:51 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 21:22:02 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Public Advisory Number 1a
Issued at 600 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025
584 WTPZ34 KNHC 122338 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 600 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 100.5W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 100.5 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday and continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 20:45:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 21:22:02 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 20:45:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 21:22:02 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2025
853 WTPZ24 KNHC 122043 TCMEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2025 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 100.2W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 100.2W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 100.1W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.3N 101.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.3N 102.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N 104.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 85SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.1N 108.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.3N 112.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 100.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025
661 WTPZ44 KNHC 122044 TCDEP4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located south of Mexico, that the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring have increased and are showing signs of organization. While some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images near the northeast edge of ongoing convection, the low-level circulation remains broad and elongated. However, the system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow, and it is possible that it will bring tropical storm conditions to land areas within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the National Hurricane Center is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories for this disturbance. The initial motion is more uncertain than normal since the system is still in the formative stage, but the best estimate is west-northwestward at about 6 kt. A northwestward to west-northwestward motion is anticipated during the next few days as the system moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico, being steered by a mid-level ridge. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with the overall track evolution, although minor track shifts may cause greater impacts to the coast of Mexico. The NHC forecast lies near the simple consensus aids. Since the disturbance currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the track forecast uncertainty is typically larger in these situations, and future track adjustments may be required. The models suggest a more well-defined center should develop overnight or tomorrow. Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening during the next couple of days, with warm sea surface temperatures and abundant moisture. However, the system will be dealing with some easterly to northeasterly wind shear. The NHC forecast shows steady strengthening over the next few days, although there are some guidance aids such as HCCA and the hurricane regional models that lie above the current NHC forecast. Given some uncertainty in how quickly the system consolidates and the limiting wind shear, the NHC forecast lies near the simple intensity consensus aids. Beyond day 4, environmental conditions will become hostile which should lead to weakening, and the system should struggle to produce convection moving into cooler SSTs and a more stable air mass. The current NHC forecast has the system becoming a remnant low at that time, and calls for dissipation by day 5. Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of southwestern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 11.3N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 13/1800Z 13.3N 101.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 14.3N 102.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 15.5N 104.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 16.5N 106.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 17.1N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 17.3N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025
448 WTPZ34 KNHC 122044 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 ...DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.3N 100.2W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Mexico from Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 100.2 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwest to northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday and continue strengthening as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2025
384
FOPZ14 KNHC 122044
PWSEP4
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 34(42) 10(52) X(52) X(52)
15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14)
15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 100W 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 20:45:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 20:45:45 GMT
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 14:36:42 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 15:22:23 GMT
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 14:36:42 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 14:36:42 GMT
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 111434 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 ...COSME HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 113.7W ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 113.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected late today, followed by a turn to the north on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kelly/Gibbs
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 13
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
000 WTPZ23 KNHC 111434 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 113.7W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 113.7W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 113.9W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 113.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY/GIBBS
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 111435
PWSEP3
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/GIBBS
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 111435 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 Drier mid-level air and stable atmospheric conditions have taken their toll on Cosme. The system has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, with only a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds evident on satellite imagery. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt. Given the hostile environment and ongoing lack of convection, Cosme is not expected to redevelop, and this will be the final advisory. The low is now moving toward the east-northeast at about 070/6 kt. Global model guidance indicates a gradual turn toward the north-northeast later today, followed by a turn to the north on Thursday, as the system steadily spins down and dissipates over the next day or so. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.4N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 12/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Gibbs
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 08:34:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 09:22:25 GMT