Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024

000
WTNT24 KNHC 160231
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  86.3W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  86.3W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  86.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.3N  86.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.6N  87.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  30SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N  88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N  90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N  91.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N  86.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

000
WTNT34 KNHC 160232
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
...SARA PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING POTENTIALLY 
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 86.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is
stationary with little net motion expected overnight.  A slow
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin later on Saturday. 
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move 
near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before
approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day
on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is forecast before landfall on 
Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential for mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning
on Saturday.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Issued at 600 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

869 
WTNT34 KNHC 152331
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
600 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
...SARA CRAWLING WESTWARD NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 86.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border.
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow
westward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a
more west-northwestward motion beginning late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the
northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before
approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day
on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or
so, as long as the system remains offshore.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning
on Saturday.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

000
WTNT44 KNHC 152035
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
Satellite images depict a large convective band to the northwest of 
the center of Sara, which has been meandering just offshore between 
the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. The current 
intensity is uncertain. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity 
estimates were T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB, though there was 
a recent partial scatterometer pass around 1430 UTC that depicted 
winds only around 30-33 kt in the northeastern semicircle. The 
initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which may be 
generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system later this evening which will 
help better determine the structure and intensity of the system.

Sara's forward motion has become sluggish today with a slow westward 
motion, estimated at 270/2 kt. This slow motion is anticipated to 
continue over the next 12 to 24 h. Afterwards, the mid-level ridge 
which has been steering Sara is forecast to shift northeastward, and 
Sara is then expected to resume a somewhat faster westward to 
west-northwestward motion later this weekend. Along the forecast 
track, the center of Sara is forecast to move through the Gulf of 
Honduras on Saturday and into Belize on Sunday. The NHC forecast 
track is near the previous, with a slightly slower forward motion in 
the near term.
 
The intensity forecast is largely dependent on the land interaction 
with Central America. The model trends and the track forecast keep 
the system's center just offshore through landfall in Belize, thus 
the latest NHC shows some slight strengthening. After landfall, the 
system is forecast to weaken rapidly. The current NHC forecast shows 
the system as a remnant low in the Bay of Campeche, however it is 
possible the system dissipates over the Yucatan peninsula sooner 
than forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous and lies near the consensus aids.
 
The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern
portions of Honduras.
 
2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall 
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the 
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of 
Guatemala, the coast of Belize and portions of the coast of Mexico 
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 16.2N  86.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 16.2N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 16.4N  86.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 16.8N  87.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 17.2N  89.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 60H  18/0600Z 18.3N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/1800Z 19.9N  92.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024

000
WTNT24 KNHC 152034
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  86.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  86.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  86.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.2N  86.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.4N  86.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  30SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.8N  87.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.2N  89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.3N  90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.9N  92.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N  86.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

000
WTNT34 KNHC 152034
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
...SARA SLUGGISHLY MEANDERING NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 86.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm 
Warning from the Nicaragua/Honduras Border westward to Punta Patuca.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from 
Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal.

The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning 
from Belize City northward to Chetumal.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the 
Honduras-Guatemala border.
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the 
progress of this system. 
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was 
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 86.2 West. Sara is 
moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow 
westward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a 
more west-northwestward motion beginning late Saturday. On the 
forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the 
northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before 
approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the 
day on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, as 
long as the system remains offshore.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected 
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas 
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and 
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern 
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, 
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain 
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This 
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along 
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm 
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning 
on Saturday.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
Satellite images depict a large convective band to the northwest of 
the center of Sara, which has been meandering just offshore between 
the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. The current 
intensity is uncertain. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity 
estimates were T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB, though there was 
a recent partial scatterometer pass around 1430 UTC that depicted 
winds only around 30-33 kt in the northeastern semicircle. The 
initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which may be 
generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system later this evening which will 
help better determine the structure and intensity of the system.

Sara's forward motion has become sluggish today with a slow westward 
motion, estimated at 270/2 kt. This slow motion is anticipated to 
continue over the next 12 to 24 h. Afterwards, the mid-level ridge 
which has been steering Sara is forecast to shift northeastward, and 
Sara is then expected to resume a somewhat faster westward to 
west-northwestward motion later this weekend. Along the forecast 
track, the center of Sara is forecast to move through the Gulf of 
Honduras on Saturday and into Belize on Sunday. The NHC forecast 
track is near the previous, with a slightly slower forward motion in 
the near term.
 
The intensity forecast is largely dependent on the land interaction 
with Central America. The model trends and the track forecast keep 
the system's center just offshore through landfall in Belize, thus 
the latest NHC shows some slight strengthening. After landfall, the 
system is forecast to weaken rapidly. The current NHC forecast shows 
the system as a remnant low in the Bay of Campeche, however it is 
possible the system dissipates over the Yucatan peninsula sooner 
than forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous and lies near the consensus aids.
 
The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern
portions of Honduras.
 
2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall 
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the 
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of 
Guatemala, the coast of Belize and portions of the coast of Mexico 
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 16.2N  86.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 16.2N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 16.4N  86.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 16.8N  87.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 17.2N  89.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 60H  18/0600Z 18.3N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/1800Z 19.9N  92.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
NNNN

Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

000
WTNT34 KNHC 151746
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
1200 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
...SARA MEANDERING NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 86.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras.
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to
the Belize-Guatemala border.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system. Additional Watches and Warnings
could be required for portions of these areas later this afternoon.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was 
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.1 West. Sara is 
moving slowly toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow 
westward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a 
more west-northwestward motion beginning late Saturday. On the 
forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close to 
the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday before 
approaching Belize, and then moving onshore in Belize during the day 
on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of
days as long as Sara remains offshore of the coast of Honduras.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala and Belize beginning on Saturday.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024

000
WTNT24 KNHC 151526
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  86.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  86.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  85.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.1N  86.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  30SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.2N  86.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE  30SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N  87.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.8N  88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.6N  90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N  91.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N  86.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

000
WTNT44 KNHC 151451
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
Since the prior advisory, Sara has become modestly better organized, 
with an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass showing some improved 
structural organization of the outer rainbands with the center 
located near the northern coast of Honduras. The latest set of 
coastal surface observations suggest that Sara's center might have 
reformed just offshore overnight, between the Bay Islands and the 
northern mainland of Honduras. With the improvement on microwave and 
geostationary satellite imagery, subjective and objective estimates 
are a bit higher this morning, and the initial intensity was nudged 
up to 45 kt at 12 UTC, and remains at that value for this advisory.
 
Sara does appear to be slowing down, but still moving generally 
westward, estimated at 270/4 kt. A large mid-level ridge draped 
northwestward of Sara is expected to slow the forward motion of the 
tropical storm to a crawl later today. However, this ridge is then 
forecast to shift northeastward on Saturday, and Sara is then 
expected to resume a somewhat faster westward to west-northwestward 
motion this weekend, resulting in it moving into the Gulf of 
Honduras on Saturday and into Belize on Sunday. The model guidance 
this cycle is quite similar to the prior advisory, and the NHC 
forecast track is largely an update of the previous one, near the 
middle of the guidance envelope.
 
Sara's future intensity prior to moving into the Yucatan will
largely be governed by if and how far the tropical cyclone is able
to remain offshore. The latest track forecast does keep Sara
offshore just far enough that it could intensify a bit more before
moving onshore in Belize, and the latest NHC intensity is a little
higher, showing a 50 kt peak before landfall. This forecast is also
roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope. After moving into
the Yucatan, Sara is expected to quickly weaken, and what remains of
the system when it emerges into the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of
Mexico is not very favorable for redevelopment. Ultimately, Sara is
expected to open up into a trough, though its remnant moisture will
likely be absorbed in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the next
shortwave trough ejecting out of the western United States.
 
The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern
portions of Honduras.
 
2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will
cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands, the
Caribbean coast of Guatemala and Belize where tropical storm
warnings are in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 16.1N  86.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 16.1N  86.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 16.2N  86.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 16.5N  87.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 16.8N  88.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 60H  18/0000Z 17.6N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/1200Z 19.2N  91.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  86.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  86.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  85.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.1N  86.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  30SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.2N  86.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE  30SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N  87.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.8N  88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.6N  90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N  91.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N  86.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
NNNN

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

977 
WTNT34 KNHC 151447
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
...SARA SLOWING DOWN BETWEEN THE BAY ISLANDS AND NORTHERN MAINLAND
OF HONDURAS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 86.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras.
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to
the Belize-Guatemala border.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should 
monitor the progress of this system. Additional Watches and Warnings 
could be required for portions of these areas later this afternoon.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.0 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued slow
westward motion is expected over the next day or so, but a
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close
to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday before
approaching Belize, and ultimately moving onshore in Belize during
the day on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days 
as long as Sara remains offshore of the coast of Honduras.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala and Belize beginning on Saturday.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Issued at 600 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

000
WTNT34 KNHC 151159
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
600 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
...SARA NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... 
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 85.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Honduras has extended the Tropical Storm Warning 
westward from Punta Sal to the border of Honduras and Guatemala. 

The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Warning 
from the border of Honduras and Guatemala westward to Punta Barrios.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The entire northern coast of Honduras
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The northern coast of Guatemala from the Honduras/Guatemala 
border westward to Puerto Barrios
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should 
monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Watches or 
Warnings will likely be required for portions of the coast of Belize 
later this morning.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 85.5 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next day or
so. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move
close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then
approach the coast of Belize early Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 
couple of days if the center of Sara remains over water to the 
north of Honduras.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras and Guatemala during the next couple of days.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas 
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras and Guatemala. 
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and 
destructive waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024

000
WTNT24 KNHC 150844
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
0900 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  85.1W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  85.1W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  84.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N  85.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.0N  86.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  20SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.2N  86.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  30SE   0SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.5N  87.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.0N  88.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.9N  90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N  85.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
 
 

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150844
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
...SARA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS...
 
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 85.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Watches or 
Warnings will likely be required for portions of the coast of Belize 
later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 85.1 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward 
motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next day or 
so. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. 
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move 
close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then 
approach the coast of Belize early Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days
when the center of Sara moves over water to the north of Honduras.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

000
WTNT44 KNHC 150845
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
There hasn’t been much observational data near the center of Sara 
overnight and early this morning aside from the 1-minute GOES-16 
data, which shows a large area of deep convection across northern 
Honduras and over the Gulf of Honduras.  Belize radar has provided 
some information, but the center is still just beyond the range of 
this radar, and there aren't any surface observations near the 
center either.  Finding the center has been challenging overnight.  
Recent GOES-16 imagery shows increased mid-level rotation over water 
about 40 miles north of the advisory position, but there is no 
evidence of any low-level center re-formation at this time.  The 
initial position is based on a combination of the satellite imagery 
and continuity from the previous NHC forecast.  The initial 
intensity estimate remains unchanged from the previous advisory at 
40 kt.

Sara is estimated to be moving westward or 280/8 kt.  A mid-level 
ridge positioned to the NW of Sara over the Gulf of Mexico should 
cause Sara to slow down today.  The mid-level ridge is forecast to 
move slowly eastward toward Florida late in the weekend, allowing 
for Sara to turn west-northwestward by late Saturday across the 
Gulf of Honduras before approaching the coast of Belize early 
Sunday.  The model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the 
track, and the new NHC track forecast is mostly an update of the 
previous prediction and lies close to the various consensus aids.

While environmental and oceanic conditions are favorable for some 
strengthening, Sara's relatively broad structure and proximity to 
land are likely to prevent significant intensification during the 
next 24 hours.  Slight strengthening is then forecast while the 
system is farther offshore before it approaches Belize.  The bulk 
of the model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and 
the NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.  After Sara moves inland over Belize on Sunday, it should 
quickly weaken while moving over the Yucatan Peninsula.  The NHC 
forecast calls for dissipation beyond 72 hours, as in the previous 
forecast.  While most of the global models still indicate that Sara 
is unlikely to survive its trek across the Yucatan Peninsula, some 
leftover low-level vorticity from Sara's remnants should merge with 
an elongated trough or front over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle 
of next week.  Given the strong wind shear and cooler waters, no 
tropical redevelopment is expected over the Gulf of Mexico.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause
potentially catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides over northern portions of Honduras.
 
2. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, 
eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of 
Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and 
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.
 
4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of
strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 16.0N  85.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 16.0N  85.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 16.0N  86.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 16.2N  86.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 16.5N  87.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  17/1800Z 17.0N  88.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/0600Z 17.9N  90.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 

Issued at 100 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150540
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
100 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
 
...SARA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD JUST INLAND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN 
COAST OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 84.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 84.8 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at a
slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A
slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close to 
the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then approach 
the coast of Belize on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days 
if the center of Sara is able to emerge offshore of the northern 
coast of Honduras.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in 
Honduras during the next couple of days.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024

000
WTNT24 KNHC 150252
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
0300 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  84.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  84.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  84.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.9N  85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  20SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.0N  86.0W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  20SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.1N  86.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  30SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.3N  87.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  30SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N  87.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  20SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.4N  89.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N  84.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
 
 

Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

882 
WTNT34 KNHC 150252
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND SARA JUST INLAND ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 84.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the northeastern coast of Nicaragua.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was 
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 84.5 West. Sara is 
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at a 
slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A 
slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the 
forecast track, the center of Sara will move close to the northern 
coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then approach the coast of 
Belize on Sunday.
 
Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some further strengthening is possible during the next
couple of days if the center of Sara remains offshore of the
northern coast of Honduras.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Issued at 700 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

000
WTNT34 KNHC 142348
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
700 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SARA... 
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 84.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan 
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was 
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 84.0 West. Sara is 
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at a 
slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A 
slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the 
forecast track, the center of Sara will move close to the northern 
coast of Honduras during the next couple of days and approach the 
coast of Belize on Sunday.
 
Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum 
sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some 
strengthening is possible during the next couple of days if the 
center of Sara remains offshore of the northern coast of Honduras.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, primarily to the north of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 998 
mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical 
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header 
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm 
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in Nicaragua tonight.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

000
WTNT34 KNHC 142057 CCA
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number   5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Corrected country name in the intensity forecast section
 
...SARA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 83.5 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at 
a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.  
A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday.  
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move near the 
northern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days, and 
approach the coast of Belize on Sunday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible if the center of Sara remains 
offshore of the northern coast of Honduras. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, primarily to the north of the center. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected 
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas 
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and 
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern 
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, 
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized 
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in 
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the 
potential of mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in 
Honduras during the next couple of days.  Tropical storm conditions 
are possible in the watch area in Nicaragua through tonight. 
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

000
WTNT34 KNHC 142044
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
 
...SARA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 83.5 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at 
a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.  
A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday.  
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move near the 
northern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days, and 
approach the coast of Belize on Sunday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible if the center of Sara remains 
offshore of the northern coast of Belize. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, primarily to the north of the center. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected 
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas 
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and 
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern 
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, 
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized 
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in 
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the 
potential of mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in 
Honduras during the next couple of days.  Tropical storm conditions 
are possible in the watch area in Nicaragua through tonight. 
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

000
WTNT24 KNHC 142044
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
2100 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  83.5W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  83.5W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  83.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N  84.7W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  20SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N  85.5W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  20SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.1N  85.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  20SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.1N  86.4W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  20SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.3N  87.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  20SE   0SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.7N  88.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.3N  90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  83.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

000
WTNT44 KNHC 142044
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
 
Convective banding associated with the cyclone continued to improve
especially over the western semicircle of the system after the
release of the 1500 UTC advisory.  A couple of Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft that have flew through the system early
this afternoon reported dropsonde data that supported a minimum
pressure of 998 mb and peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 42 kt.
These data supported the upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm
Sara on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory.  The latest Dvorak 
satellite intensity estimates from both SAB and TAFB also support 
35 kt, therefore the initial intensity for this advisory is at that 
value. 

The forward speed of Sara is beginning to decrease as expected.  
The cyclone is now moving westward or 270 degrees at 9 kt.  Sara 
should continue to move westward during the next couple of days to 
the south of a strong mid-level ridge, however a continued 
deceleration of Sara's forward speed is expected.  By Sunday, the 
center of the ridge is forecast to move eastward over Florida which 
should cause Sara to turn west-northwestward when it approaches 
Belize and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Most of 
the track guidance has nudged northward this cycle, and the NHC 
forecast has been adjusted accordingly.  The new track continues to 
be along or just north of the coast of northern Honduras and it is 
in good agreement with the latest consensus aids. 

Environmental conditions are conducive for some strengthening 
during the next couple of days, but the main inhibiting factor is 
the sprawling structure of the cyclone and its close proximity to 
land.  Given that the system is forecast to pass very close to the 
northern coast of Honduras, only modest strengthening is suggested 
by most of the guidance.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for some 
strengthening during the next couple of days, follow by little 
change in intensity until the system moves over the Yucatan 
peninsula.  It should be noted that a more northern track, could 
result in additional strengthening, but the global models and most 
of the intensity guidance does not favor that scenario.  The global 
models indicate that the system will weakening quickly while it 
moves over the Yucatan peninsula and that the circulation is not 
likely to survive the passage over the peninsula.  Therefore, the 
new forecast now calls for dissipation by day 5. 


 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause 
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over portions 
of northern Honduras. 

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, 
western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy 
rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding 
and mudslides. 
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.
 
4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of
strong winds.  Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 15.9N  83.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 16.0N  84.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 16.1N  85.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 16.1N  85.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 16.1N  86.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  17/0600Z 16.3N  87.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 16.7N  88.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 19.3N  90.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Issued at 100 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

000
WTNT34 KNHC 141745
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
100 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SARA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 82.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 50 MI...85  KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was 
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 
15.7 North, longitude 82.9 West. The system is moving toward the 
west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion should continue through 
today, bringing the center near the coast of eastern Honduras. The 
system is expected to meander near the northern coast of Honduras 
late Friday and through the weekend.
 
Data from the Air Force Reserve aircraft indicate that the maximum 
sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, if the system remains over 
water.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km)
from the center, mainly in the northern semicircle.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 
999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10
to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area
expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to
widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic
flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra
La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Storm Sara is
expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals
around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of
mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and possible in the watch area beginning later today.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 

Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

000
WTNT34 KNHC 141449
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
 
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND 
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 82.6W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Honduras has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for
Honduras and the Bay Islands.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the 
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward 
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border 
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression 
Nineteen was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 82.6 West. 
The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This 
motion should continue through today, bringing the center near the 
coast of eastern Honduras. The system is expected to meander near 
the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become 
a tropical storm later today.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 
to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area 
expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to 
widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic 
flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra 
La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern 
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is 
expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals 
around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas 
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of 
mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and possible in the watch area beginning later today.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 

Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

000
WTNT24 KNHC 141448
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
1500 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  82.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  82.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  82.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.7N  83.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.9N  84.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.9N  85.4W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.9N  85.8W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.0N  86.2W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.2N  87.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N  89.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.7N  91.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N  82.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 

Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
 
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND 
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 82.6W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Honduras has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for
Honduras and the Bay Islands.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the 
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward 
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border 
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression 
Nineteen was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 82.6 West. 
The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This 
motion should continue through today, bringing the center near the 
coast of eastern Honduras. The system is expected to meander near 
the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become 
a tropical storm later today.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 
to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area 
expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to 
widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic 
flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra 
La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern 
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is 
expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals 
around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas 
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of 
mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and possible in the watch area beginning later today.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
NNNN

Issued at 700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

000
WTNT34 KNHC 141148
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
 
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 82.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 90  MI...150 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the 
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.  

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 82.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This
motion should continue through today, taking the system across the
western Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to stall and
meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the
weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and
continue strengthening, if it remains over water.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is
expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals
around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of
mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and possible in the watch area beginning later today.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

000
WTNT24 KNHC 140846
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.7W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.7W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.9N  83.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N  84.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N  85.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N  85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.9N  85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.9N  85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N  87.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N  89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  81.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN