NHC.hurricane.com

NHC Hurricane Advisories

Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 8a

, UTC by

Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 181734
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
1200 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
 
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS ERICK NOW A CATEGORY 2 
HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 96.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Angel
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress
of Erick.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located
near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 96.3 West. Erick is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected later today or
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to
approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland 
on Thursday.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 
km/h) with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is expected to 
continue today, and Erick is forecast to reach major hurricane 
strength tonight or early Thursday as it approaches the coast of 
southern Mexico.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
 
The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 971 mb 
(28.67 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with
maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across
Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima,
Jalisco and Mexico City.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area by this evening or overnight, and preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area
beginning late today and tonight.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico through Thursday.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Hurricane Erick Forecast Advisory Number 8

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 181441
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052025
1500 UTC WED JUN 18 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  96.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  96.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  95.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.5N  96.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.9N  98.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N  99.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N  96.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 8

, UTC by

Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 181442
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
900 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
 
...ERICK RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 96.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning west
of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana.
 
The Hurricane Watch from east of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco
has been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Angel
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress 
of Erick.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located
near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 96.0 West. Erick is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected later today or
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to
approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland
or be near the coast on Thursday.
 
Erick is rapidly intensifying, and maximum sustained winds have 
increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts.  Rapid 
strengthening is expected to continue today, and Erick is forecast 
to reach major hurricane strength tonight or early Thursday as it 
approaches the coast of southern Mexico.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with
maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across
Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima,
Jalisco and Mexico City.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the 
warning area by this evening or overnight, and preparations to 
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.  Tropical 
storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area 
beginning late today and tonight.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico through Thursday.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Hurricane Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 181442
PWSEP5
                                                                    
HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052025               
1500 UTC WED JUN 18 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
15N 100W       34  X   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X  10(10)  47(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
ACAPULCO       50  X   1( 1)  18(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
ACAPULCO       64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X  74(74)  16(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
P MALDONADO    50  X  35(35)  31(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
P MALDONADO    64  X  13(13)  26(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
P ANGEL        34 20  41(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
P ANGEL        50  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
P ANGEL        64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
HUATULCO       34  4  12(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
15N 95W        34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN

Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion Number 8

, UTC by

Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 181442
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Erick Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
900 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
 
Erick has become significantly better organized with an increasingly
symmetric and large central convective area with very cold cloud
tops.  GOES satellite imagery also shows impressive banding
structures both to the north and south of the central convective
area.  The latest subjective Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB range
from 65-77 kt, while the recent ADT estimate is in the 65-70 kt
range.  Since the time of the subjective estimates at 12Z, GOES
images suggest that the inner-core stucture has improved
significantly and an eye may be forming.  The intensity is 
therefore increased to 75 kt for this advisory, and Erik has begun 
its anticipated period of rapid intensification.  An Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to Erick, 
which should provide a better estimate of the intensity.
 
Erick continues moving to the northwest, or 310/7 kt.  This general
motion, along with perhaps a slight acceleration, is expected
through landfall, which is forecast to occur early Thursday along
the southern coast of Mexico. The track guidance remains in good
agreement, and confidence in the overall track is high. Users should
keep in mind that small track deviations could still lead to
significant changes in where the strongest winds and coastal impacts
occur due to the oblique angle of approach. The official forecast
track is unchanged from the previous advisory and lies very close to
the HCCA aid.
 
Very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions surround Erick,
with warm ocean waters, low vertical wind shear and a moist
mid-level troposphere, and these conditions are expected to persist
through landfall.  The 06Z HAFS models are forecasting Erick to
become a major hurricane.  The various SHIPS rapid intensification
indices indicate a high likelihood of continued rapid strengthening
over the next 24 h, which would result in Erick becoming a major
hurricane.  The new NHC forecast explicitly shows Erick becoming a
major hurricane, but it's possible this forecast could be
conservative, especially if the current trend of improved structure
continues today.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Erick is rapidly intensifying and is expected to be a major
hurricane when it reaches the coast of western Oaxaca or eastern
Guerrero within the hurricane warning area on Thursday.  Devastating
wind damage is possible where the core of the storm moves onshore.  
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to 
completion.
 
2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central
America and Southwest Mexico through this week.  Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep
terrain.
 
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in
areas of onshore winds.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 13.9N  96.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 14.5N  96.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 15.9N  98.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 17.4N  99.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 7a

, UTC by

Issued at 600 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 

958 
WTPZ35 KNHC 181151
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
600 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025

...ERICK NOW A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 95.7W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Angel
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
* East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Erick.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 95.7 West. Erick is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected later
today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is
expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and
move inland or be near the coast on Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected today, and Erick may reach 
major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern 
Mexico Thursday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from 
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 
miles (110 km) from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with
maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are expected across
the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area later today and tonight.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the
coast of southern Mexico later today.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 

281 
WTPZ25 KNHC 180832
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052025
0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  95.4W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  95.4W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  95.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.9N  96.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.0N  97.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N  98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  70SE  40SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 100.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N  95.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/BLAKE

Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 

938 
WTPZ35 KNHC 180832
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
 
...ERICK EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 95.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Angel
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
* East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Erick.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was 
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 95.4 West. Erick is 
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward 
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected later 
today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is 
expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and 
move inland or be near the coast on Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected today, and the system may 
reach major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of 
southern Mexico Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with 
maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and 
Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 
3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are expected across 
the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning 
area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on 
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical 
storm warning area later today and tonight.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal 
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast 
in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large 
and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the
coast of southern Mexico later today.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Blake

Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 

215 
FOPZ15 KNHC 180833
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052025               
0900 UTC WED JUN 18 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  23(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 100W       34  X   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   2( 2)  45(47)  18(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
ACAPULCO       50  X   X( X)  10(10)  18(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
ACAPULCO       64  X   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X  13(13)  78(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
P MALDONADO    50  X   1( 1)  57(58)   4(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
P MALDONADO    64  X   X( X)  35(35)   3(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
P ANGEL        34  1  63(64)   5(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
P ANGEL        50  X  13(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
P ANGEL        64  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HUATULCO       34  X  26(26)   4(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
HUATULCO       50  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
HUATULCO       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
15N 95W        34  4   6(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER GIBBS/BLAKE

Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 

001 
WTPZ45 KNHC 180834
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
 
Satellite imagery indicates continued improvement in Erick’s 
structure, with deep convection wrapping tightly within the 
inner-core region. A recent AMSU microwave pass confirmed a 
better-organized inner core, consistent with the observed 
intensification trend. Although ASCAT data from several hours ago 
sampled about 40-kt peak winds in the northeastern quadrant, Erick 
has strengthened since that time. This is supported by the latest 
subjective Dvorak classifications of T3.5 from TAFB and T4.5 from 
SAB, while the objective ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS has increased to 
near 60 kt and continues to rise. Based on a blend of these data, 
the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt for this advisory.

Erick is moving northwestward at about 310/6 kt. This relatively 
slow forward motion has persisted for the past several hours, 
consistent with a weakening of the mid-level ridge to the north in 
response to a mid- to upper-level trough progressing eastward across 
the central United States. This general motion is expected to 
continue through landfall, which is forecast to occur early Thursday 
along the southern coast of Mexico. The track guidance remains in 
good agreement, and confidence in the overall track is relatively 
high. That said, small track deviations could still lead to 
significant changes in where and when the strongest winds and 
coastal impacts occur due to the oblique angle of approach. The 
official forecast aligns closely with the consensus of the HCCA and 
TVCE aids and remains near the previous NHC track.

The environment ahead of Erick remains highly conducive for 
additional strengthening, with sea surface temperatures near 29 C, 
low vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture. Several 
dynamic regional models project Erick to reach major hurricane 
strength before landfall, and the Rapid Intensification (RI) 
guidance continues to indicate a significant chance for rapid 
strengthening within the next 36 hours. The NHC forecast remains 
near the upper end of the guidance envelope but could still be 
somewhat conservative, especially if the current trend of improved 
structure continues today.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast
of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is in effect
for portions of the coast of Oaxaca and Guerrero.
 
2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central 
America and Southwest Mexico through this week.  Life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep 
terrain.
 
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in
areas of onshore winds.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 13.3N  95.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 13.9N  96.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 15.0N  97.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 16.7N  98.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 48H  20/0600Z 18.0N 100.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 60H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Blake

Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 6a

, UTC by

Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 180553
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
1200 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
 
...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 95.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Angel
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
* East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36 
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of 
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside 
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life 
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Erick.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was 
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 95.1 West. Erick is 
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward 
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the 
next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Erick is 
expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and 
move inland or be near the coast on Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and 
Erick is expected to become a hurricane later today. Erick is 
forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it 
approaches the coast of southern Mexico Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to
16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican
states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8
inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on 
Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical 
storm warning area later today and tonight.
 
STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the
coast of southern Mexico later today.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake/Gibbs

Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 

907 
WTPZ25 KNHC 180238
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052025
0300 UTC WED JUN 18 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  94.9W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  80SW  80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  94.9W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  94.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.7N  95.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.7N  96.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.0N  98.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 101.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N  94.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/BUCCI

Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 

140 
WTPZ35 KNHC 180238
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
900 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025
 
...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING 
FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 
THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 94.9W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from
Puerto Angel to Acapulco. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from 
west of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta Angel
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
* East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued  
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of 
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside 
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life 
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Erick.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was 
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 94.9 West. Erick is 
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward 
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the 
next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Erick is 
expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night 
and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and 
Erick is expected to become a hurricane by by early Wednesday.  
Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it 
approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and 
Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 
16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican 
states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life 
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep 
terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 
inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, 
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm 
Total Rainfall Graphic available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning 
area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane 
watch area on Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in 
the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
 
STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the
coast of southern Mexico in a day or so.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Bucci

Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 

794 
FOPZ15 KNHC 180239
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052025               
0300 UTC WED JUN 18 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)  11(32)   X(32)   X(32)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  32(37)  11(48)   X(48)   X(48)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   X(14)   X(14)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 100W       34  1   3( 4)  22(26)   6(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
15N 100W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
15N 100W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   3( 3)  30(33)  45(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)
ACAPULCO       50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  33(37)   3(40)   X(40)   X(40)
ACAPULCO       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
P MALDONADO    34  1  11(12)  69(81)   9(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
P MALDONADO    50  X   1( 1)  38(39)  20(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
P MALDONADO    64  X   X( X)  18(18)  17(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
P ANGEL        34  3  66(69)  11(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
P ANGEL        50  X  14(14)   9(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
P ANGEL        64  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
HUATULCO       34  1  31(32)   9(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
HUATULCO       50  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
HUATULCO       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
15N 95W        34 11  20(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
15N 95W        50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SALINA CRUZ    34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER GIBBS/BUCCI

Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 180240
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
900 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025
 
Satellite imagery shows that Erick is becoming increasingly 
well-organized. Deep convection has expanded and cooled, with 
enhanced infrared imagery indicating cloud tops as cold as -85 C 
near the center. A recent SSMIS microwave pass revealed an improved 
inner-core structure, including a developing curved band. The latest 
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0 and T4.0, respectively, 
and objective ADT values are approaching T3.5. In addition, 
just-received synthetic aperture radar data indicate winds near 
50 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt for this 
advisory to represent a blend of these estimates.

Erick is moving northwestward at about 310/6 kt. This slowing in 
forward speed is consistent with a weakening of the mid-level ridge 
to the north, caused by a mid- to upper-level trough progressing 
eastward across the central United States. This general motion is 
expected to continue through landfall, with only a gradual increase 
in forward speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement and 
continues to show the center of Erick approaching the coast of 
southern Mexico within the next 24 to 36 hours. Although confidence 
in the overall track is relatively high, small deviations could lead 
to significant changes in where and when the strongest winds and 
coastal impacts occur. The official forecast lies near the consensus 
of the HCCA and TVCE aids and is very close to the previous NHC 
track.

The environment ahead of Erick remains highly conducive for 
additional strengthening, with sea surface temperatures near 29 C, 
low vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture. Several 
dynamic regional models bring Erick to major hurricane strength 
before landfall, and the Rapid Intensification (RI) guidance 
continues to indicate a significant chance for rapid strengthening 
in the next 24 to 36 hours. The NHC forecast remains near the upper 
end of the guidance envelope but could still be somewhat 
conservative, especially if the current trend of improved structure 
continues overnight.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast
of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is in effect
for portions of the coast of Oaxaca and Guerrero coast.
 
2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central
America and Southwest Mexico through this week.  Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep
terrain.
 
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in
areas of onshore winds.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 13.1N  94.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 13.7N  95.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 14.7N  96.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 16.0N  98.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 17.4N 100.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 60H  20/1200Z 18.8N 101.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Bucci

Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 5a

, UTC by

Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 

105 
WTPZ35 KNHC 172343
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
600 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025
 
...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS LIKELY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 94.6W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco
* East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later 
tonight.  Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the 
progress of Erick.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 94.6 West.  Erick is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A northwestward
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Erick is
expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night
and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two,
and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early
Wednesday.  Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane
strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday
night and Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to
16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican
states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8
inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane
watch area on Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
 
STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the
coast of southern Mexico in a day or so.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci