5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 08:54:14 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 09:22:37 GMT
Hurricane Erick Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 08:54:14 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 09:22:37 GMT
Hurricane Erick Forecast Advisory Number 12
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025
536 WTPZ25 KNHC 190850 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 97.9W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 15NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 97.9W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 97.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 99.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 97.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 12
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025
239 WTPZ35 KNHC 190851 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...BRINGING EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS NEAR ITS CORE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 97.9W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 97.9 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to make landfall in the western portion of the Mexican state of Oaxaca or the eastern portion of the Mexican state of Guerrero within the next few hours, and then continue inland over southern Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. After landfall, Erick should rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to dissipate tonight or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning during the next few hours, with extremely destructive winds near the core of Erick. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today. Tropical Storm conditions are currently spreading onshore in the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in the tropical storm warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025
302
FOPZ15 KNHC 190851
PWSEP5
HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 100W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ACAPULCO 34 67 12(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
ACAPULCO 50 5 13(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
ACAPULCO 64 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
P MALDONADO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
P MALDONADO 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
P MALDONADO 64 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
P ANGEL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Erick Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 08:54:14 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 08:54:14 GMT
Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190852 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 Erick is about to make landfall along the southern coast of Mexico. Its rapid strengthening episode has ended, likely due to the interaction with land. The eye has become obscured on satellite imagery, and the intensity is adjusted to 120 kt in agreement with the latest objective estimates from UW/CIMSS. Erick remains an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane. However, rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland and the system moves over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Smoothing out the trochoidal wobbles in the track, the motion estimate, 310/8 kt, remains about the same as before. This general motion, on the south side of a weak mid-level ridge, is likely to continue until the system dissipates within the next day or two. The official track forecast is just slightly west of the previous one and close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and devastating wind damage is likely near its core. Take shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure and remain sheltered until after hazardous conditions pass. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 15.9N 97.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 17.5N 99.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Update Number
Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
267 WTPZ65 KNHC 190540 TCUEP5 Hurricane Erick Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1140 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 ...ERICK STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY FOUR MAJOR HURRICANE... Satellite imagery indicates Erick has strengthened into a category four major hurricane with estimated maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/h). A special advisory will be issued around 0600 UTC in lieu of an intermediate advisory. Forecaster Kelly
Hurricane Erick Forecast Advisory Number 11
Issued at 0600 UTC THU JUN 19 2025
309 WTPZ25 KNHC 190543 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ERICK SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0600 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 97.5W AT 19/0600Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 97.5W AT 19/0600Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 96.7W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 97.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 11
Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025
260 WTPZ35 KNHC 190544 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Special Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 97.5W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 97.5 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to make landfall in the western portion of the Mexican state of Oaxaca or the eastern portion of the Mexican state of Guerrero this morning, and then continue inland over southern Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening could occur before landfall. After landfall, Erick should rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to dissipate Thursday night or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning during the next few hours, with extremely destructive winds near the core of Erick. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today. Tropical Storm conditions are currently spreading onshore in the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning during the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 0600 UTC THU JUN 19 2025
325
FOPZ15 KNHC 190544
PWSEP5
HURRICANE ERICK SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
0600 UTC THU JUN 19 2025
AT 0600Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 100W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ACAPULCO 34 4 18(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
ACAPULCO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
P MALDONADO 34 92 5(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
P MALDONADO 50 37 21(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
P MALDONADO 64 11 19(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
P ANGEL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HUATULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion Number 11
Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025
459 WTPZ45 KNHC 190544 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Special Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 This is a special advisory mainly to update the intensity of Erick. After an earlier eyewall replacement, satellite images indicate very deep convection is wrapping around the eye of the hurricane. Using a blend of objective ADT Dvorak estimates and SATCON values from UW/CIMSS yields a current intensity estimate of 125 kt, which is used for this advisory. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next couple of hours, although the interaction with land should halt the intensification process. Erick will weaken rapidly after making landfall. A slight leftward adjustment was made to the forecast track based on the recent motion, which is now 305/8 kt. This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 06Z intermediate advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is now an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and devastating wind damage is likely where the core moves onshore. Weather conditions are already deteriorating in the warning area, and preparations to protect life and property should have been completed. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0600Z 15.5N 97.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 98.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Erick Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 05:46:54 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 05:46:54 GMT
Hurricane Erick Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 02:45:32 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 03:22:25 GMT
Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190242 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 ...MAJOR HURRICANE ERICK HEADING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 97.1W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 97.1 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to make landfall in the western portion of the Mexican state of Oaxaca or the eastern portion of the Mexican state of Guerrero early Thursday morning, and then continue inland over southern Mexico during the day on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening could occur before landfall. After landfall, Erick should rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to dissipate Thursday night or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning during the next few hours, and they are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions are currently spreading onshore in the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning during the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Erick Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 19 2025
000 WTPZ25 KNHC 190242 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0300 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 97.1W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 97.1W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 96.7W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 97.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.8N 99.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 97.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 19 2025
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 190243
PWSEP5
HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
0300 UTC THU JUN 19 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ACAPULCO 34 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
P MALDONADO 34 79 10(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
P MALDONADO 50 13 16(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
P MALDONADO 64 2 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
P ANGEL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
P ANGEL 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HUATULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
834 WTPZ45 KNHC 190243 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 Erick's rapid intensification continued through 18/23Z. as an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near that time reported that the central pressure had fallen to 953 mb. However, since that time, the satellite appearance of the hurricane went through a period when it was a little degraded, suggesting that the intensification rate may have slowed. This may be due to an attempted eyewall replacement cycle, as the aircraft data suggested concentric wind maxima during its pass through the center. The intensity is a little uncertain, as the plane had to abort due to computer problems before it could probe the northeastern eyewall. Based on the central pressure, the observed wind structure, and the various satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set to a possibly conservative 110 kt. The initial motion estimate is northwestward at 320/8 kt. This motion should bring the center to the Mexican coast in the state of Oaxaca within the next 12 h, with a subsequent northwestward motion bringing the system farther inland over southern Mexico on Thursday and Thursday night. The forecast guidance is essentially the same as for the previous advisory, and the new forecast track has a slight nudge to the right based on the current location and motion. Conditions continue to be favorable for strengthening, and it is possible that Erick could get stronger before landfall if the possible eyewall replacement completes. Regardless of additional intensification, rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and Erick is expected to dissipate over southern Mexico Thursday night or Friday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick continues to intensify and is now a major hurricane. It is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico in the western portion of the state of Oaxaca or the eastern portion of the state of Guerrero within the hurricane warning area early Thursday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of the storm moves onshore. Weather conditions are already deteriorating, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.2N 97.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0000Z 17.8N 99.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Erick Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 02:45:32 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 02:45:32 GMT
Hurricane Erick Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 23:58:23 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 21:22:28 GMT
Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 9a
Issued at 600 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
460 WTPZ35 KNHC 182344 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 600 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS ERICK IS A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 96.7W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 96.7 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland on Thursday morning. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until the center makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 953 mb (28.14 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning during the next several hours, and they are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. In the hurricane warning area, tropical storm conditions are expected to begin during the next few hours, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Erick Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 20:36:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 21:22:28 GMT
Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
345 WTPZ45 KNHC 182034 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft completed its mission into Erick this morning and found 93-kt flight-level winds at 700 mb along with a dropsonde central pressure of 971 mb around 17Z. The recon data showed strengthening in between the 1530Z fix and the 17Z fix. An eye has been present in visible and infrared satellite imagery since about 15Z this morning, and recent satellite imagery shows the eye continuing to become more circular with warming eye temperatures. The eye is nearly completely surrounded by a large area of convective cloud tops colder than -70C. As a result, satellite intensity estimates have been increasing quickly. The 18Z subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 90-102 kt. Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 95-100 kt range. Based on a blend of the data, the initial intensity is estimated to be 95 kt, and this might be a bit conservative. The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 315/8 kt. This general motion, along with perhaps a slight acceleration, is expected through landfall, which is forecast to occur early Thursday morning along the southern coast of Mexico. Erick has been moving to the right of the previous official forecast, and as a result, the new guidance shows landfall slightly to the east of the previous track. The new NHC track forecast is shifted eastward, close to the latest TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Confidence in the track forecast is high. Erick has been rapidly strengthening for the past 12 hours, and given the extremely favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions along Erick's forecast track, further intensification in the short term appears very likely. The 12Z HAFS models and the 18Z SHIPS guidance have Erick becoming a major hurricane soon. The various SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices all show greater than a 70 percent chance of 20 kt strengthening in the next 12 h. The new NHC forecast shows 110 kt at 12 h, which is at the high end of the intensity guidance suite. There is a possibility that Erick could strengthen more than forecast. The next Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the hurricane in a few hours, around 2330 UTC today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick continues to rapidly intensify and is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of western Oaxaca or eastern Guerrero within the hurricane warning area late tonight or early Thursday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of the storm moves onshore. Weather conditions are already deteriorating, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion before sunset. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 14.5N 96.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.5N 97.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 17.0N 98.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/0600Z 18.5N 100.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Hurricane Erick Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 20:36:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 20:36:21 GMT
Hurricane Erick Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 18 2025
550 WTPZ25 KNHC 182033 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC WED JUN 18 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 96.5W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 96.5W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 96.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.5N 97.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 98.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 100.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 96.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Hurricane Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 18 2025
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 182033
PWSEP5
HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
2100 UTC WED JUN 18 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 100W 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ACAPULCO 34 2 28(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
ACAPULCO 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ACAPULCO 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
P MALDONADO 34 30 63(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
P MALDONADO 50 2 51(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
P MALDONADO 64 X 27(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
P ANGEL 34 97 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
P ANGEL 50 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
P ANGEL 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HUATULCO 34 72 X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
15N 95W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
548 WTPZ35 KNHC 182033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 ...DANGEROUS ERICK FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 96.5W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 96.5 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland on Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is forecast to reach major hurricane strength by this evening, with continued additional strengthening possible overnight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late tonight into early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area this evening or overnight, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Hurricane Erick Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 17:38:27 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 15:22:28 GMT
Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 8a
Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 181734 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1200 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS ERICK NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 96.3W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 96.3 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland on Thursday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected to continue today, and Erick is forecast to reach major hurricane strength tonight or early Thursday as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 971 mb (28.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Mexico City. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by this evening or overnight, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning late today and tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Hurricane Erick Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 14:43:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 15:22:28 GMT