5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Oct 2024 02:33:46 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Oct 2024 02:33:46 GMT
Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 22
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 270234 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Kristy's low-level cloud field is starting to lose some definition, but there has still been bursting of deep convection to the north of the center. Dvorak CI numbers of 3.5 from TAFB and 3.0 from SAB, combined with objective satellite estimates, support a current intensity of 50 kt. Due to the expected continuation of very strong southerly shear, as well as sea surface temperatures of 23-24 degrees Celsius, Kristy is forecast to weaken below tropical storm strength and become a remnant low during the day on Sunday. Model fields show the circulation opening up into a trough by 36 hours, and that is when dissipation is now shown. Kristy has turned north-northwestward and slowed down further (330/10 kt). However, now that the circulation is becoming increasingly shallow, low-level ridging to the north will cause the cyclone to turn back toward the northwest and west tonight and on Sunday before it dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 21.5N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 22.2N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 22.3N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Kristy Public Advisory Number 21
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 262034 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 ...KRISTY FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 129.2W ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 129.2 West. Kristy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over the weekend, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 262034
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 21
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 262035 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 The cloud pattern of Kristy continues to decay, with the low-level center now exposed to the south of what remains of the mid-level circulation due to strong shear. The current intensity is set to 55 kt using a blend of the most recent Dvorak estimates. A continuation of this shear along with cool water temps should lead to further weakening, and Kristy is forecast to become a remnant low early on Sunday. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and the latest consensus aids. The storm continues to move northwestward at about 12 kt. Kristy should turn more westward overnight as the circulation becomes more vertically shallow and steered by a low-level ridge. Other than a small westward adjustment, little change was made to the NHC track forecast, and the new prediction lies just west of the consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 20.7N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 21.7N 129.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 22.3N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0600Z 22.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Kristy Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 20:36:23 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 20:36:24 GMT
Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 21
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 262034 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 129.2W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 240SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 129.2W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 128.9W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.7N 129.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.3N 130.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 129.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Kristy Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 14:34:12 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 14:34:13 GMT
Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 20
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
084 WTPZ42 KNHC 261434 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Kristy is rapidly weakening. Satellite images show the center of the hurricane on the southern edge of the central dense overcast, with the southern part of the circulation exposed due to strong shear. The current intensity is set to 65 kt, consistent with the latest estimates. Further rapid weakening is anticipated due to a continuation of strong shear and Kristy moving over cooler waters. The new intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, similar to the intensity consensus aids. Kristy should become post-tropical without any organized convection in about 24 h. The hurricane continues to move northwestward at about 12 kt this morning. This general motion is expected until late today when the mid-level circulation of the cyclone becomes decoupled with the low-level center. Kristy should then turn westward on Sunday and southwestward late that day as a remnant low. Very little change was made to the previous forecast, which remains steady in showing this course. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.7N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 21.1N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 22.3N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 20
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 261432 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 128.4W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 240SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 128.4W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 128.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.1N 129.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 130.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 128.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Kristy Public Advisory Number 20
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 261433 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 ...KRISTY WEAKENING RAPIDLY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 128.4W ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 128.4 West. Kristy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over the weekend, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 261433
PWSEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 130W 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
25N 130W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 20
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Kristy is rapidly weakening. Satellite images show the center of the hurricane on the southern edge of the central dense overcast, with the southern part of the circulation exposed due to strong shear. The current intensity is set to 65 kt, consistent with the latest estimates. Further rapid weakening is anticipated due to a continuation of strong shear and Kristy moving over cooler waters. The new intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, similar to the intensity consensus aids. Kristy should become post-tropical without any organized convection in about 24 h. The hurricane continues to move northwestward at about 12 kt this morning. This general motion is expected until late today when the mid-level circulation of the cyclone becomes decoupled with the low-level center. Kristy should then turn westward on Sunday and southwestward late that day as a remnant low. Very little change was made to the previous forecast, which remains steady in showing this course. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.7N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 21.1N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 22.3N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
Hurricane Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 260834
PWSEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 125W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 130W 34 29 7(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 19
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260837 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Kristy continues to weaken this morning. While the hurricane is still producing an area of fairly deep convection, this convection is becoming stretched poleward as south-southwesterly vertical wind shear steadily increases over the tropical cyclone. Subjective Dvorak estimates are constrained from decreasing faster this morning, but taking a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates yields an intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. The shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS analysis is now up to 30 kt, and is forecast to increase above 40 kt in 24 h. In addition, Kristy is now crossing the 26 C isotherm and heading for even cooler ocean waters. This combination should continue to result in rapid weakening, with the hurricane likely to vertically decouple later today. The NHC intensity forecast continues to blend the previous forecast with the latest consensus aids, showing Kristy weakening below hurricane intensity by this evening. Remnant low status is likely not far behind on Sunday as the cyclone ceases to produce organized deep convection, as depicted by both global and regional-hurricane models. The remnant low low should finally open up into a trough on Monday. The hurricane has maintained a northwestward motion this morning at 320/13 kt. While the prominent subtropical mid-level ridge over Baja California steering Kristy should remain in place, the tropical cyclone's vertically deep vortex will likely decouple over the next 24 h. This decoupling will result in the mid-level vortex leaving behind Kristy's surface circulation, which should quickly slow down and turn westward as it becomes primarily influenced by strong low-level ridging to its north. The track guidance continues to be in relative good agreement with the prior forecast track, and only minor adjustments were made from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.7N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Hurricane Kristy Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 08:35:00 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 08:35:00 GMT
Hurricane Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 19
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 260833 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 127.6W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 127.6W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 127.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 127.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 125W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 130W 34 29 7(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
NNNN
Hurricane Kristy Public Advisory Number 19
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 260834 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 ...KRISTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 127.6W ABOUT 1180 MI...1895 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 127.6 West. Kristy is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next couple of days, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Hurricane Kristy Public Advisory Number 18
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 260232 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 ...KRISTY WEAKENING RAPIDLY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 126.9W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 126.9 West. Kristy is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through early Sunday, followed by a turn toward the west by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next couple of days, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 260232
PWSEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 125W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 130W 34 7 43(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
20N 130W 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 18
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024
275 WTPZ42 KNHC 260233 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Kristy's deepest convection is being displaced to the north of the center due to strong southerly shear, diagnosed at 30 kt by UW-CIMSS, although some convective elements are still trying to form within the southern eyewall. Subjective Dvorak CI numbers and objective satellite estimates now range between 80-100 kt, and Kristy's intensity is therefore set at a blend of 90 kt. Rapid weakening is forecast to continue as the hurricane encounters even stronger shear--and cooler sea surface temperatures--over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows previous official forecast trends and the latest consensus aids. Model-simulated satellite data indicate that Kristy should lose its deep convection by Sunday, and the cyclone is therefore expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours. The low is forecast to open up into a trough on Monday. Kristy is moving northwestward (310/13 kt), steered by a strong mid-level ridge centered over the Baja California peninsula. The ridge should keep Kristy on a northwestward or north-northwestward trajectory for the next 36 hours, but once the cyclone weakens to a remnant low, it is expected to turn westward and slow down considerably when it runs into a low-level ridge to the north. The track models are in good agreement on this scenario, and no significant track changes were made from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 17.6N 126.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.9N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 20.9N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 22.4N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 22.7N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 18
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 260232 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.9W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.9W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.4W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.9N 128.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.9N 129.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.4N 130.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.7N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 126.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG=
Hurricane Kristy Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 02:33:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 02:33:41 GMT
Hurricane Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 17
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 25 2024
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 252036 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC FRI OCT 25 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.8W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.8W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 125.4W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.0N 127.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.0N 129.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.8N 130.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.7N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 125.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Hurricane Kristy Public Advisory Number 17
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024
337 WTPZ32 KNHC 252036 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 ...KRISTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 125.8W ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 125.8 West. Kristy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Kristy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady to rapid weakening is expected during the next few days, with Kristy expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Hurricane Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 25 2024
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 252036
PWSEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
2100 UTC FRI OCT 25 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 130W 34 1 39(40) 7(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
20N 130W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 17
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 252037 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Latest satellite images continue to depict that Kristy is struggling within an increasingly hostile environment. The convective pattern has continued to become more asymmetric, as southerly vertical wind shear continues to increase, displacing most of the convection over the northern semicircle. The eyewall has weakened as well, with convective cloud tops warming. The inner core degradation was further confirmed by a recent GMI microwave pass. Subjective and objective intensity estimates continue to plummet this afternoon and range between 90-105 kt. Given the satellite presentation, inner structure degradation, and these estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt for this advisory. Kristy is moving toward the northwest with an estimated motion of 305/12 kt. The system will move northwestward to north-northwestward for the next couple of days, steered along the southwestern periphery of a ridge located over the eastern Pacific. Towards the end of the period, as the system weakens and becomes a remnant low, the system's forward speed will also decrease with a turn toward the west-southwest within the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is very near the previous one. The environment surrounding Kristy continues to become more and more unfavorable. Vertical wind shear is forecast to continue to increase, with cooling sea-surface temperatures and drier mid-levels of the atmosphere. Therefore, steady to rapid weakening is anticipated through the forecast period. Model simulated satellite data depict that Kristy will struggle to produce convection late this weekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 48 h, and dissipating into a trough by 72 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these model trends. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 16.8N 125.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.0N 127.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 22.0N 129.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 22.8N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 28/0600Z 22.7N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Hurricane Kristy Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 25 Oct 2024 20:38:14 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Oct 2024 20:38:14 GMT
Hurricane Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 16
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 25 2024
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 251437 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC FRI OCT 25 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 124.3W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.0N 126.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 127.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.8N 128.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.4N 129.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 124.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY