5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 14:36:15 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 15:22:15 GMT
Archives for July 3, 2025
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 14:36:15 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 14:36:15 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 18
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
167 WTPZ21 KNHC 031433 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.7W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.7W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.6N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.3N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 18
Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025
597 WTPZ31 KNHC 031433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 ...FLOSSIE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER COOL WATER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 111.7W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 111.7 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical low later today and a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
756
FOPZ11 KNHC 031433
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 18
Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025
557 WTPZ41 KNHC 031434 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 Flossie is now a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no associated convection as it moves over colder sea surface temperatures to the southwest of Baja California Sur. The initial intensity is decreased to a somewhat uncertain 40 kt in agreement with the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Flossie should continue to steadily weaken, with the cyclone expected to become a post-tropical low later today and a remnant low tonight. The system should dissipate completely by 60 h. The initial motion is 300/9. A generally northwestward to west-northwestward should continue to the next 36 h or so, followed by a gradual bend more toward the west-northwest. The new track forecast is close to the previous forecast and the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 20.6N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 23.6N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 24.3N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 08:35:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 09:22:06 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 08:35:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 08:35:25 GMT
Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 17
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
485 WTPZ21 KNHC 030832 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 111.0W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 111.0W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.9N 112.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/PAPIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 17
Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025
190 WTPZ31 KNHC 030833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 ...FLOSSIE WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 111.0W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 111.0 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Papin
Tropical Storm Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 030833
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/PAPIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 17
Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030834 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 Flossie continues to rapidly weaken, with a recent ASCAT pass indicating instrument derived winds of only 40 to 45 kt north of the center. The cyclone’s structure has further degraded, with deep convection absent and the low-level circulation now fully exposed. Both subjective and objective satellite current intensity estimates reflect this weakening trend, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of these data. The initial motion is 300/8 kt. Flossie continues to move along the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge situated over northern Mexico. This general motion is expected to persist for the next couple of days. The updated forecast track is nearly unchanged from the previous advisory and remains close to the consensus guidance. Continued weakening is anticipated as the system moves over cooler waters and remains embedded in a dry and stable environment. With no deep convection, Flossie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today, with dissipation expected by 60 hours, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.1N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.9N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 24.0N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Papin
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 02:42:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 03:21:53 GMT
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 16
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
184 WTPZ21 KNHC 030239 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.2W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.2W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.4N 111.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.6N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.1N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/BLAKE
Hurricane Flossie Public Advisory Number 16
Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
018 WTPZ31 KNHC 030240 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ...FLOSSIE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 110.2W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 110.2 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Blake
Hurricane Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
527
FOPZ11 KNHC 030240
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 110W 50 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 110W 64 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/BLAKE
Hurricane Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 16
Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030241 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Flossie is rapidly weakening, with deep convection now confined to the western and southwestern quadrants of the circulation and the low-level center almost fully exposed. This trend is supported by recent Dvorak classifications, with current intensity estimates from TAFB at 4.5/77 kt and SAB at 4.0/65 kt. Objective satellite intensity estimates range between 56 and 72 kt. A blend of these data supports lowering the initial intensity to 65 kt. The initial motion is 305/7 kt. Flossie is moving along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge, with a weakness in the ridge induced by a mid- to upper-level trough over the Baja California region. A continued northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest as the system decouples vertically. The latest forecast track remains very close to the previous advisory and is well-supported by the consensus aids. Rapid weakening is expected to continue as Flossie moves over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable and drier environment. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical by late Thursday, or within the next 24 hours, and degenerate into a remnant low shortly thereafter. The system is expected to dissipate by late Saturday, around 72 hours from now. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.8N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 20.4N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 23.6N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1200Z 24.1N 117.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Blake
Hurricane Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 02:42:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 02:42:52 GMT