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Archives for June 20, 2025
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Jun 2025 02:35:38 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Jun 2025 02:35:38 GMT
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Forecast Advisory Number 15
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025
202 WTPZ25 KNHC 200232 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0300 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 100.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 100.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 100.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 102.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 100.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Public Advisory Number 15
Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025
628 WTPZ35 KNHC 200232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK DECAYS TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA... ...THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 100.8W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 100.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates over Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and the post-tropical low is expected to dissipate later tonight or early Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches through the night mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum totals of 5 inches, are expected across the states of Michoacan and Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: A few wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur this evening in squalls and in mountainous regions near the center of Erick. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by the Meteorological Service of Mexico. $$ Forecaster Beven
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 200233
PWSEP5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
0300 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025
363 WTPZ45 KNHC 200233 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 Erick has continued to rapidly weaken over Mexico, as the system is no longer producing organized convection and the circulation has become poorly defined. Based on these developments, the cyclone is downgraded to a remnant low pressure area and this will be the last advisory. A 12-h forecast point is included, but the circulation may well dissipate before 12 h. Although Erick is no longer a tropical cyclone, heavy rains will linger over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight. This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in products from the Meteorological Service of Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick will continue to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico overnight. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.0N 100.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 12H 20/1200Z 18.7N 102.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven