Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
001 WTPZ45 KNHC 180834 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025 Satellite imagery indicates continued improvement in Erick’s structure, with deep convection wrapping tightly within the inner-core region. A recent AMSU microwave pass confirmed a better-organized inner core, consistent with the observed intensification trend. Although ASCAT data from several hours ago sampled about 40-kt peak winds in the northeastern quadrant, Erick has strengthened since that time. This is supported by the latest subjective Dvorak classifications of T3.5 from TAFB and T4.5 from SAB, while the objective ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS has increased to near 60 kt and continues to rise. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt for this advisory. Erick is moving northwestward at about 310/6 kt. This relatively slow forward motion has persisted for the past several hours, consistent with a weakening of the mid-level ridge to the north in response to a mid- to upper-level trough progressing eastward across the central United States. This general motion is expected to continue through landfall, which is forecast to occur early Thursday along the southern coast of Mexico. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and confidence in the overall track is relatively high. That said, small track deviations could still lead to significant changes in where and when the strongest winds and coastal impacts occur due to the oblique angle of approach. The official forecast aligns closely with the consensus of the HCCA and TVCE aids and remains near the previous NHC track. The environment ahead of Erick remains highly conducive for additional strengthening, with sea surface temperatures near 29 C, low vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture. Several dynamic regional models project Erick to reach major hurricane strength before landfall, and the Rapid Intensification (RI) guidance continues to indicate a significant chance for rapid strengthening within the next 36 hours. The NHC forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope but could still be somewhat conservative, especially if the current trend of improved structure continues today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the coast of Oaxaca and Guerrero. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 13.3N 95.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 13.9N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 15.0N 97.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0600Z 18.0N 100.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Blake