Archives for June 18, 2025

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 18 2025

794 
FOPZ15 KNHC 180239
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052025               
0300 UTC WED JUN 18 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)  11(32)   X(32)   X(32)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  32(37)  11(48)   X(48)   X(48)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   X(14)   X(14)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 100W       34  1   3( 4)  22(26)   6(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
15N 100W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
15N 100W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   3( 3)  30(33)  45(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)
ACAPULCO       50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  33(37)   3(40)   X(40)   X(40)
ACAPULCO       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
P MALDONADO    34  1  11(12)  69(81)   9(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
P MALDONADO    50  X   1( 1)  38(39)  20(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
P MALDONADO    64  X   X( X)  18(18)  17(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
P ANGEL        34  3  66(69)  11(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
P ANGEL        50  X  14(14)   9(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
P ANGEL        64  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
HUATULCO       34  1  31(32)   9(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
HUATULCO       50  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
HUATULCO       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
15N 95W        34 11  20(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
15N 95W        50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SALINA CRUZ    34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER GIBBS/BUCCI

Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 180240
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
900 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025
 
Satellite imagery shows that Erick is becoming increasingly 
well-organized. Deep convection has expanded and cooled, with 
enhanced infrared imagery indicating cloud tops as cold as -85 C 
near the center. A recent SSMIS microwave pass revealed an improved 
inner-core structure, including a developing curved band. The latest 
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0 and T4.0, respectively, 
and objective ADT values are approaching T3.5. In addition, 
just-received synthetic aperture radar data indicate winds near 
50 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt for this 
advisory to represent a blend of these estimates.

Erick is moving northwestward at about 310/6 kt. This slowing in 
forward speed is consistent with a weakening of the mid-level ridge 
to the north, caused by a mid- to upper-level trough progressing 
eastward across the central United States. This general motion is 
expected to continue through landfall, with only a gradual increase 
in forward speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement and 
continues to show the center of Erick approaching the coast of 
southern Mexico within the next 24 to 36 hours. Although confidence 
in the overall track is relatively high, small deviations could lead 
to significant changes in where and when the strongest winds and 
coastal impacts occur. The official forecast lies near the consensus 
of the HCCA and TVCE aids and is very close to the previous NHC 
track.

The environment ahead of Erick remains highly conducive for 
additional strengthening, with sea surface temperatures near 29 C, 
low vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture. Several 
dynamic regional models bring Erick to major hurricane strength 
before landfall, and the Rapid Intensification (RI) guidance 
continues to indicate a significant chance for rapid strengthening 
in the next 24 to 36 hours. The NHC forecast remains near the upper 
end of the guidance envelope but could still be somewhat 
conservative, especially if the current trend of improved structure 
continues overnight.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast
of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is in effect
for portions of the coast of Oaxaca and Guerrero coast.
 
2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central
America and Southwest Mexico through this week.  Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep
terrain.
 
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in
areas of onshore winds.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 13.1N  94.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 13.7N  95.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 14.7N  96.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 16.0N  98.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 17.4N 100.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 60H  20/1200Z 18.8N 101.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 02:42:00 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Jun 2025 02:42:00 GMT