5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 02:35:19 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 03:22:25 GMT
Archives for June 16, 2025
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
262 WTPZ44 KNHC 160234 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 Dalila is no longer producing organized deep convection and has become a remnant low. Therefore, this will be the last NHC advisory on Dalila. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, based on recent Dvorak estimates and the UW-CIMSS AIDT. The remnant low has continued on a west-northwestward heading during the past few hours, but a turn westward is still expected tonight. The cyclone will should then continue westward for another day or so while slowly spinning down over cool waters. Most models indicate that Dalila will dissipate entirely in about 2 days. The NHC forecast track for the remnant low has been shifted northward slightly with this advisory, but otherwise the forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 18.6N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 16/1200Z 18.7N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 18.9N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 18.5N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 02:35:19 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 02:35:19 GMT
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 160233
PWSEP4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 110W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 14 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 Dalila is no longer producing organized deep convection and has become a remnant low. Therefore, this will be the last NHC advisory on Dalila. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, based on recent Dvorak estimates and the UW-CIMSS AIDT. The remnant low has continued on a west-northwestward heading during the past few hours, but a turn westward is still expected tonight. The cyclone will should then continue westward for another day or so while slowly spinning down over cool waters. Most models indicate that Dalila will dissipate entirely in about 2 days. The NHC forecast track for the remnant low has been shifted northward slightly with this advisory, but otherwise the forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 18.6N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 16/1200Z 18.7N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 18.9N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 18.5N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky NNNN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
522 WTPZ34 KNHC 160233 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 ...DALILA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON DALILA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 109.2W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 109.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn towards the west is expected tonight, followed by continued westward motion for another day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Dalila is forecast to dissipate late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Dalila. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025
521 WTPZ24 KNHC 160233 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.7N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.5N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 109.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON DALILA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY