5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 14:35:47 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 15:22:25 GMT
Archives for June 15, 2025
Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 151434 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 Dalila's satellite appearance has degraded since the previous advisory. Cloud tops have been warming, and what convection remains is displaced to the southwest. First-light visible imagery showed that the system has decoupled with the low-level center exposed due to moderate northeasterly wind shear. Given the current satellite presentation, subjective and objective intensity estimates have started to drop-off, and the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. Dalila is moving towards the west-northwest, at an estimated 295/8 kt. As Dalila continues to weaken and becomes a shallower vortex, a turn towards the west is expected within the low-level wind flow. The current NHC track forecast is similar to the previous, near the consensus aids. The storm will continue to weaken today within a cooler SSTs and a drier, more stable environment. Dalila is already struggling to produce convection and should become a post-tropical cyclone later tonight. The latest intensity forecast shows steady weakening and the system dissipating in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 18.2N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 18.3N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 16/1200Z 18.3N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 14:35:47 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 14:35:47 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 12
Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 151436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 ...DALILA WEAKENING WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 107.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.8 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn towards the west will occur later today, with a continued westward motion the next couple of days Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast the during the next few days, and the system is expected to become a remnant low tonight or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán today, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. Any instances of flash flooding and mudslides should decrease today. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 12
Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 151434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 ...DALILA WEAKENING WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 107.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.8 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn towards the west will occur later today, with a continued westward motion the next couple of days Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast the during the next few days, and the system is expected to become a remnant low tonight or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán today, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. Any instances of flash flooding and mudslides should decrease today. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 12
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 151434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 70SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....135NE 150SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 109.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.3N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 151434
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 14(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 11a
Issued at 500 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 151141 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 500 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 ...DALILA MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 107.4W ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for coastal southwestern Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 107.4 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected during the next couple days, as Dalila moves farther away from the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low tonight or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero this morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. Any instances of flash flooding and mudslides should decrease later today. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Gusty winds are possible along the coast of southwestern Mexico this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 11:41:44 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 09:22:11 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 08:51:37 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 09:22:11 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 08:51:37 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 09:22:11 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 08:51:37 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 08:51:37 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 11
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 150841 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0900 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 107.2W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 80SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....165NE 150SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 107.2W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N 108.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.4N 110.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.8N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 107.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 15/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/PASCH
Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 11
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
634 WTPZ34 KNHC 150844 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 ...DALILA MOVING WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 107.2W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 107.2 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected during the next couple days, as Dalila moves farther offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Dalila has reached its peak intensity and will begin to weaken soon. Steady weakening is then forecast during the next couple of days, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low tonight or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero this morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. Any instances of flash flooding and mudslides should decrease later today. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area during the next few hours. Winds will diminish today as Dalila moves westward and farther away from the southwest coast of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch
Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025
400
FOPZ14 KNHC 150844
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0900 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 110W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 19(21) 7(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/PASCH
Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 11
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
040 WTPZ44 KNHC 150846 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 Dalila is likely near its peak intensity, with little change in organization evident since the previous advisory package. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65 knots and 55 knots, respectively. Objective estimates ranged from 45 to 57 knots, while an ASCAT pass earlier in the day showed numerous 50 knot wind barbs. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 knots. Dalila is now heading toward the west-northwest, or 285/12 knots. A turn toward the west is expected during the next day or so, as Dalila is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A westward to slightly south of due west motion is then forecast through dissipation as Dalila moves over much cooler waters. The current forecast shows Dalila becoming a post-tropical remnant low in a day or so, and dissipating by Tuesday. The latest track forecast is very close to that of the previous advisory, and is close to the track consensus aids. Dalila should begin to weaken later today as some drier mid-level air evident in water vapor imagery begins to impact the system. More steady weakening is then likely as the system moves over much cooler water and into a progressively drier mid-level environment. The latest intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory and in good agreement with the intensity consensus guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through this morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area during the next few hours. Winds will diminish today while the system moves farther offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.0N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 18.3N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 18.4N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 16/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 17.8N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 05:42:57 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 03:22:26 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 10a
Issued at 1100 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150536 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 1100 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025 ...DALILA CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 106.9W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 106.9 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to remain offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Dalila is likely near its peak intensity and will begin to gradually weaken later tonight or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through Sunday morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 05:42:57 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 03:22:26 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 03:05:50 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 03:22:26 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 800 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150255 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025 ...DALILA CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 106.1W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning east of Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 106.1 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to remain offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Dalila is likely near its peak intensity and will begin to gradually weaken later tonight or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through Sunday morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 150254 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0300 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.1W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 100SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.1W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 107.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 112.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.8N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 106.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 15/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 150255
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0300 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MANZANILLO 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 110W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 5( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 800 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025
536 WTPZ44 KNHC 150255 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025 Dalila is likely near its peak intensity, with little change in organization evident since the previous advisory package. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65 knots and 55 knots, respectively. Objective estimates ranged from 45 to 57 knots, while an ASCAT pass earlier in the day showed numerous 50 knot wind barbs. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 knots. Dalila is now heading toward the west-northwest, or 295/10 knots. A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Sunday, as Dalila is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A westward to slightly south of due west motion is then forecast Sunday night through dissipation as Dalila moves over much cooler water. The current forecast shows Dalila becoming a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night, and dissipating by Tuesday. The latest track forecast is very close to that of the previous advisory, and generally in the middle of the various track aids. Dalila should begin to weaken later tonight as some drier mid-level air evident in water vapor imagery begins to impact the system. More steady weakening is then forecast Sunday onward as the system moves over much cooler water and into a progressively drier mid-level environment. The latest intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory and in good agreement with the intensity consensus guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.6N 106.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.9N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 17.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 17.8N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 17.8N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 03:05:50 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 03:05:50 GMT