5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 17:53:23 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 15:22:29 GMT
Archives for June 14, 2025
Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 8a
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Jun 14 2025
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 141753 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 1200 PM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 ...DALILA STRENGTHENS... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 105.1W ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 105.1 West. Dalila is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (16 km/h). A gradual west-northwest to westward turn is expected later today into Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to remain offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible today, with a weakening trend beginning on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through Sunday morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 14:35:47 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 15:22:29 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025
127 WTPZ34 KNHC 141434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 ...DALILA'S OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 104.8W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.8 West. Dalila is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual west-northwest to westward turn is expected later today into Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to remain offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, with a weakening trend beginning on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through Sunday morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025
128 WTPZ24 KNHC 141434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.8W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT.......200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 300SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.8W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 104.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 106.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.1N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.2N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 104.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025
231
FOPZ14 KNHC 141434
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN BLAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 105W 34 16 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
MANZANILLO 34 39 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 10(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025
251 WTPZ44 KNHC 141434 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 Dalila continues to show signs of strengthening, with deep convection bursting over the low-level center, and curved banding features near the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is a fairly large range of satellite intensity estimates this morning from 45 to 65 kt. Given the improving satellite presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt for this advisory. A scatterometer pass is scheduled over the system around 16Z, which may give a better estimate of surface winds. The storm is currently moving northwestward at an estimated 305/10 kt. A mid-level ridge is building westward over northern Mexico, which should cause Dalila to gradually turn west-northwestward later today. As the system begins to weaken into a shallower vortex on Sunday, Dalila will turn more westward within the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC forecast is near the previous one, and lies near the latest simple and corrected consensus aids. Dalila may be nearing peak intensity, with only about 6 to 12 h left within a favorable environment. Thus, the NHC forecast shows slight strengthening today, with a peak intensity of 55 kt. Along the forecast track, Dalila will move over much cooler SSTs tonight and begin to enter a drier, more stable airmass. This will lead to steady weakening, and eventually the system will struggle to produce convection. The NHC intensity forecast is near the previous one, however now shows the system becoming a remnant low in 48 h, although this could occur sooner. By day 4, models depict the remnant low dissipating into an open trough. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.5N 104.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.3N 106.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 18.1N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 18.2N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 14:35:47 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 14:35:47 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025
ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.8W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT.......200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 300SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.8W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 104.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 106.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.1N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.2N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 104.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY NNNN
Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025
ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 ...DALILA'S OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 104.8W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.8 West. Dalila is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual west-northwest to westward turn is expected later today into Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to remain offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, with a weakening trend beginning on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through Sunday morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:22:23 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 7a
Issued at 600 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025
070 WTPZ34 KNHC 141144 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 600 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 ...OUTER BANDS OF DALILA IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 104.3W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 104.3 West. Dalila is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual west-northwest to westward turn is expected later today into Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected today. A weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through Monday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:22:23 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:22:23 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:49 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025
501 WTPZ24 KNHC 140845 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.9W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......220NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. 4 M SEAS....135NE 330SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.9W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...240NE 140SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.0N 109.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 103.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/BEVEN
Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025
874
FOPZ14 KNHC 140848
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN BLAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 105W 34 34 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 10 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
MANZANILLO 34 43 7(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
15N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 18(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/BEVEN
Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 7
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025
979 WTPZ34 KNHC 140847 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 ...DALILA STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 103.9W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.9 West. Dalila is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected today. A gradual turn toward the west is expected tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Some additional strengthening is expected today. Weakening is forecast to begin Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through Monday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Beven
Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 7
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140849 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 Dalila has become better organized early this morning, with the latest satellite images showing well defined convective banding around the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.5/55 knots and T3.0/45 knots. Objective estimates ranged from 34 to 43 knots, while a recent ASCAT pass showed several wind barbs close to 40 kt. Based on a blend of these data and taking into account the potential for some under-sampling in ASCAT, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 45 knots. Dalila is heading toward the northwest, or 305/10 knots. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today as the system moves along the southern periphery of a building mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A gradual turn toward the west is expected tonight and Sunday, as Dalila moves over cooler water and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind flow. A westward motion is then forecast to continue through dissipation Monday night, and this may be generous as Dalila may not survive that long. The track forecast lies nearly on top of the previous track and is in close agreement with the latest consensus guidance. There is a limited window for Dalila to strengthen as it will remain over warm water and light to moderate effective easterly shear today. The forecast calls for some strengthening today, and the peak intensity was nudged slightly higher to better align with the latest intensity model trends. Beginning tonight the system will cross the 26C isotherm and over progressively cooler water, and this is expected to begin the weakening phase with Dalila forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night, and possibly sooner than that. The latest intensity forecast close to the middle of the intensity guidance envelope through the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 103.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Beven
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 05:50:23 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 03:22:08 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 6a
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 140549 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 1200 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 ...DALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 103.2W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...72 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 103.2 West. Dalila is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west is forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (72 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Weakening should begin by Sunday. Dalila is a large storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through Sunday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area and are possible within the watch area tonight and Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Beven
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 03:04:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 03:22:08 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 03:04:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 03:04:39 GMT
Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 140254 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 103.0W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 103.0 West. Dalila is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the west is forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Weakening should begin by Sunday. Dalila is a large storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through Sunday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area and are possible within the watch area tonight and Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Reinhart
Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 6
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 140254 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 103.0W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......270NE 180SE 0SW 120NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 450SE 150SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 103.0W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.1N 106.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.1N 111.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 18.1N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 103.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/REINHART
Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025
216
FOPZ14 KNHC 140255
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 105W 34 21 19(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 17(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
MANZANILLO 34 15 31(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
L CARDENAS 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
15N 100W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ACAPULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/REINHART
Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025
040 WTPZ44 KNHC 140255 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 The satellite presentation of Dalila has improved a bit this evening, with the latest images showing an increase in deep convection around the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 knots, while the objective estimates ranged from 32 to 40 knots. Based on a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 knots for this advisory. Dalila is now heading toward the northwest, or 315/10 knots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so as the system moves along the southern periphery of a building mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday night and Sunday, as Dalila moves over cooler water and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind flow. A westward motion is then forecast to continue through dissipation on Tuesday, and this may be generous as Dalila may not survive that long. The latest track forecast has been nudged slightly south of the previous advisory, in line with the latest consensus model trends. There is a limited window for Dalila to strengthen as it will remain over warm water and within light to moderate easterly shear for around 24 hours. The forecast calls for some strengthening during this time, but the peak intensity has been nudged slightly lower to better align with the latest intensity model trends. Beyond 36 hours, the system will move over much cooler water, and steady weakening is forecast with Dalila expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by 60 hours, and possibly sooner than that. The latest intensity forecast is generally on the high end of the intensity guidance through 36 hours, then is roughly in the middle of the pack through storm dissipation. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.2N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.1N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 18.1N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0000Z 18.1N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Reinhart
Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 02:59:08 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 02:59:08 GMT