5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 23:38:51 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 21:22:02 GMT
Archives for June 12, 2025
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Public Advisory Number 1a
Issued at 600 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025
584 WTPZ34 KNHC 122338 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 600 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 100.5W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 100.5 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday and continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 20:45:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 21:22:02 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 20:45:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 21:22:02 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2025
853 WTPZ24 KNHC 122043 TCMEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2025 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 100.2W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 100.2W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 100.1W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.3N 101.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.3N 102.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N 104.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 85SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.1N 108.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.3N 112.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 100.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025
448 WTPZ34 KNHC 122044 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 ...DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.3N 100.2W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Mexico from Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 100.2 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwest to northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday and continue strengthening as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025
661 WTPZ44 KNHC 122044 TCDEP4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located south of Mexico, that the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring have increased and are showing signs of organization. While some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images near the northeast edge of ongoing convection, the low-level circulation remains broad and elongated. However, the system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow, and it is possible that it will bring tropical storm conditions to land areas within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the National Hurricane Center is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories for this disturbance. The initial motion is more uncertain than normal since the system is still in the formative stage, but the best estimate is west-northwestward at about 6 kt. A northwestward to west-northwestward motion is anticipated during the next few days as the system moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico, being steered by a mid-level ridge. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with the overall track evolution, although minor track shifts may cause greater impacts to the coast of Mexico. The NHC forecast lies near the simple consensus aids. Since the disturbance currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the track forecast uncertainty is typically larger in these situations, and future track adjustments may be required. The models suggest a more well-defined center should develop overnight or tomorrow. Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening during the next couple of days, with warm sea surface temperatures and abundant moisture. However, the system will be dealing with some easterly to northeasterly wind shear. The NHC forecast shows steady strengthening over the next few days, although there are some guidance aids such as HCCA and the hurricane regional models that lie above the current NHC forecast. Given some uncertainty in how quickly the system consolidates and the limiting wind shear, the NHC forecast lies near the simple intensity consensus aids. Beyond day 4, environmental conditions will become hostile which should lead to weakening, and the system should struggle to produce convection moving into cooler SSTs and a more stable air mass. The current NHC forecast has the system becoming a remnant low at that time, and calls for dissipation by day 5. Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of southwestern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 11.3N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 13/1800Z 13.3N 101.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 14.3N 102.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 15.5N 104.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 16.5N 106.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 17.1N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 17.3N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2025
384
FOPZ14 KNHC 122044
PWSEP4
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 34(42) 10(52) X(52) X(52)
15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14)
15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 100W 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 20:45:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2025 20:45:45 GMT