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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Archives for June 11, 2025

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Public Advisory Number 13

, UTC by

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 111434
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025
 
...COSME HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 113.7W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme 
was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 113.7 West. The 
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph 
(11 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected 
late today, followed by a turn to the north on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast, and 
the remnant low is forecast to dissipate in a day or so.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane 
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant 
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and 
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Gibbs

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 13

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 111434
TCMEP3
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032025
1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 113.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
4 M SEAS....  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 113.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 113.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 113.7W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW 
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/GIBBS

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 111435
PWSEP3
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032025               
1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY/GIBBS

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 13

, UTC by

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 111435
TCDEP3
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025
 
Drier mid-level air and stable atmospheric conditions have taken 
their toll on Cosme. The system has been devoid of deep convection 
for more than 12 hours, with only a swirl of low- to mid-level 
clouds evident on satellite imagery. The initial intensity has 
been lowered to 30 kt. Given the hostile environment and ongoing 
lack of convection, Cosme is not expected to redevelop, and this 
will be the final advisory.

The low is now moving toward the east-northeast at about 070/6 kt. 
Global model guidance indicates a gradual turn toward the 
north-northeast later today, followed by a turn to the north on 
Thursday, as the system steadily spins down and dissipates over the 
next day or so.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 16.4N 113.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  12/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Gibbs

Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 12

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 

181 
WTPZ23 KNHC 110832
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032025
0900 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.5W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE  50SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 15NE  30SE  15SW  15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.5W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 114.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.7N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.5N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.4N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 114.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/HAGEN

Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 

263 
FOPZ13 KNHC 110832
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032025               
0900 UTC WED JUN 11 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER GIBBS/HAGEN

Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 12

, UTC by

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 

077 
WTPZ43 KNHC 110833
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
200 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025
 
Drier mid-level air and stable atmospheric conditions have taken
their toll on Cosme. The system has been devoid of deep convection
for several hours and is expected to become a remnant low later this
morning. Dvorak intensity estimates continue to decrease
accordingly. A 11/0442 UTC ASCAT pass showed winds in the 35-40 kt
range in the southern semicircle. Assuming additional weakening
after that time, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt.  After
transitioning to a remnant low later this morning, Cosme is expected
to dissipate by late Thursday or Friday.
 
The storm is now moving slowly toward the northeast. A gradual turn
to the north-northeast with some acceleration is expected later
today, followed by a turn to the north on Thursday. Only a slight
eastward adjustment was made to the previous NHC track forecast,
with no significant changes to the intensity forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 16.2N 114.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 16.7N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/0600Z 17.5N 113.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1800Z 18.4N 113.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen

Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 11

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 

210 
WTPZ23 KNHC 110230
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032025
0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 114.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE  60SE  45SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 114.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.4N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.3N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 114.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Cosme Public Advisory Number 11

, UTC by

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 110230
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
 
...COSME FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 114.9W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 114.9 West. Cosme is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h).  This 
general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected 
through Wednesday, followed by a turn back to the north-northwest 
on Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast, and Cosme is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday.  The
remnant low is forecast to dissipate by late Thursday or Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 110230
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032025               
0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 11

, UTC by

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 

670 
WTPZ43 KNHC 110231
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

Cosme is quickly on the path to becoming a remnant low.  Satellite 
images show that the low- and mid-level centers have separated, 
with the low-level circulation well northeast of the mid-level one 
now.  Dvorak intensity estimates continue to fall, and the initial 
intensity is set to 40 kt.  Further weakening is anticipated due to 
persistent shear, cool waters and dry air entrainment.  Cosme 
should transition into a remnant low on Wednesday morning and 
totally dissipate in a couple of days.  

The storm has taken its long-awaited turn, now moving slowly to the 
north-northeast. Cosme, or what's left of it, should move a 
little faster to the north late Wednesday and then dissipate into a 
trough of low pressure due to unfavorable environmental conditions. 
No significant changes were made to the track or intensity 
forecasts.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 15.9N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 16.4N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/0000Z 17.3N 114.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 12

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 110231
TCMEP2
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022025
0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.0W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.0W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 108.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.0N 107.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 108.0W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.   FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT 
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Public Advisory Number 12

, UTC by

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 110231
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
 
...BARBARA HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 108.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Barbara was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 108.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Weakening is forecast, and the system is 
expected to dissipate in a day or so.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on the remnant 
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and 
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Pasch

Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 110231
PWSEP2
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022025               
0300 UTC WED JUN 11 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARBARA WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Forecast Discussion Number 12

, UTC by

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 

103 
WTPZ42 KNHC 110232
TCDEP2
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
 
Earlier today, the mid-level circulation of Barbara was sheared off 
to the southwest.  As a result, all that remains of the system is a 
weak low-level swirl as evidenced by an AMSR-E microwave image from 
a few hours ago.  The system lacks sufficient deep convection to 
qualify as a tropical cyclone, and this will be the last advisory 
on Barbara.  Assuming a steady spin down of the circulation, the 
current intensity is set at 25 kt.

The remnant low is drifting northward at about 010/4 kt.  This 
general motion should continue into Wednesday and until the system 
dissipates.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 21.2N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  11/1200Z 22.0N 107.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch