Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100850 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 The convective appearance of Cosme has changed little since the previous advisory. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, and the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 54-59 kt. The initial intensity is held at 60 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of the intensity estimates. Cosme continues to move very slowly toward the northwest, with motion estimated at 300/4 kt. A slow motion, perhaps more toward the north, should continue for at least the next 12 h since the overall steering currents are weak, due to Barbara's current position in relation to Cosme. However, as Barbara weakens, Cosme will accelerate north-northeastward in response to ridging located to the northwest of the cyclone. Very little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, and the latest forecast is near the various consensus models. Cosme is forecast to remain in favorable enough conditions for the next 24 h such that the cyclone might be able to maintain its intensity or only weaken very slowly. However, after that time, as Cosme gains latitude, it will encounter cooler water and drier air. Cosme is forecast to lose its convection and become post-tropical on Wednesday, in agreement with the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery products. The post-tropical low is then forecast to gradually weaken and dissipate by 72 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 15.3N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 15.5N 114.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 17.4N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 12/0600Z 18.7N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs