Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
608 WTPZ42 KNHC 100232 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 Barbara has been gradually decreasing in organization since earlier today. Deep convection is rather fragmented with limited banding features. Although thunderstorm activity could temporarily increase tonight after the diurnal minimum, overall the system appears to be on a weakening trend. All of the objective intensity estimates are now below hurricane strength. A blend of subjective Dvorak T- and C.I. numbers from TAFB gives about a 60-kt intensity estimate, which is used for this advisory. The cyclone continues on a northwestward track with a motion of around 310/10 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the north of Barbara should maintain this northwestward motion for a while, albeit with some decrease in forward speed. In 36-48 hours, the system should become a remnant low and turn westward following the shallow-layer flow. The official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the divergent track guidance and a little to the left of the previous NHC track. This is between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The storm is crossing a gradient of sea surface temperatures and headed for cooler waters and a drier, more stable environment. Therefore continued weakening is likely, and Barbara is expected to become a remnant low in 36 hours. The official forecast is below the LGEM guidance but above the dynamical models, which suggest that the system will dissipate sooner than indicated here. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 18.7N 107.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 19.8N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 20.7N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 21.2N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 21.3N 111.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch