Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 092031 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 Cosme continues to intensify and is nearing hurricane strength. Visible satellite images show that the convective bands have consolidated near the center, and there is some evidence of a partial inner core. A blend of the latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates support increasing the initial intensity to 60 kt. A partial ASCAT pass indicates that the wind field of Cosme is quite compact, and the initial wind radii have been updated based on that data. Some additional strengthening is possible in the short term, and Cosme could become a hurricane tonight while it remains in generally conducive environmental conditions. However, the combination of decreasing SSTs and intrusions of dry/stable air should end the strengthening trend by early Tuesday and then cause a quick weakening. Simulated satellite images from the GFS and ECMWF models show deep convection vanishing by Wednesday, and based on that guidance, the transition to a remnant low has been moved up to 48 hours. Dissipation is likely to occur in 3 to 4 days. The storm is moving northwestward at 8 kt, and this general motion should continue through tonight. After that time, a turn to the north or north-northeast is expected as Cosme moves toward a weakness left behind by Hurricane Barbara to its northeast. The NHC track forecast is in fair agreement with the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 15.0N 113.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 15.3N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 15.8N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 16.6N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 17.8N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 12/0600Z 19.2N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 20.1N 113.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi