Archives for June 9, 2025

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

362 
WTPZ32 KNHC 090846
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
 
...BARBARA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 106.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 106.0 West. Barbara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane later today. 
Weakening should begin by Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Outer bands of Barbara may bring total rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches to coastal portions of the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through today. This
rainfall may lead to localized areas of flooding and mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Barbara, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
WIND: Gusty winds are likely along coastal areas of southwestern
Mexico during the next day or so.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025

354 
FOPZ12 KNHC 090846
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022025               
0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34  X   5( 5)  33(38)   4(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025

353 
FOPZ13 KNHC 090846
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032025               
0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 110W       34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
15N 115W       34  7  52(59)  10(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
15N 115W       50  X  15(15)   8(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
15N 115W       64  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER JELSEMA/HAGEN

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 090846
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
 
Barbara has become a bit better organized over the past 6 hours 
with a large central dense overcast and an increasing area of 
cloud tops in the -75C to -85C range.  The latest subjective Dvorak 
estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, and the latest 
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 46-68 kt.  
Based on the improved banding and cold cloud tops, as well as the 
persistence of this organization, the initial intensity is 
increased to 60 kt for this advisory.

There is some uncertainty in the initial position since there have 
been no recent available microwave passes, but the best motion 
estimate is west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at 10 kt.  The 
global models show a strong 500 mb ridge to the north of Barbara, 
which should help maintain Barbara on a general path toward the 
west-northwest for the next few days.  The GFS model continues 
to be the fastest and farthest left model.  The GFS appears to 
have a more realistic solution compared to the ECMWF, and was 
stronger at the initialization time.  The new NHC forecast is 
slightly faster and a bit to the left of the previous official 
forecast and is in fairly good agreement with an average of the 
simple and corrected consensus models.

Barbara only has about 12 more hours to strengthen before it starts 
moving into cooler waters.  This should be enough time for Barbara 
to strengthen to a hurricane.  The cooler water should cause 
weakening to begin tonight or on Tuesday.  The dynamical hurricane 
models and global models all show Barbara weakening below tropical 
storm strength by 48 hours, and the cyclone is likely to lose its 
convection and become a remnant low around that time.  The new NHC 
forecast shows a faster weakening and quicker dissipation than the 
previous official forecast since the dynamical guidance is now in 
good agreement on this scenario.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 16.9N 106.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 17.6N 107.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 18.8N 108.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 19.8N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 20.3N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  11/1800Z 20.5N 111.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 090846
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
 
The satellite presentation of Cosme has continued to gradually 
improve since the previous advisory, with sustained deep convection 
holding over the low-level center. A timely 09/0524Z ASCAT pass 
helped with the initial intensity and 34 kt wind radii estimates, 
with several wind barbs showing 40 to 45 knot winds. The latest 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45 
knots and T2.5/35 knots respectively. Meanwhile, the objective 
Dvorak satellite estimates range from 40 to 50 knots. The initial 
intensity has been adjusted up to 45 knots with this advisory 
package, in line with the most recent ASCAT pass.

Cosme is moving toward west-northwest at 8 kt. This general motion 
is expected to continue during the next 24 hours to the south of a 
mid-level ridge, with a gradual slowing in forward speed. Tonight 
and Tuesday Barbara is forecast to erode the mid-level ridge to the 
north of Cosme, resulting in a further slowing in motion and a shift 
to the north. An increase in forward speed and a motion to the 
north-northeast is expected Tuesday night, with Cosme forecast to 
become a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday. The latest track 
forecast is very close to that of the previous advisory and is 
generally a blend of the consensus guidance.

Environmental conditions continue to look conducive for 
strengthening of Cosme during the next 24 hours or so. Vertical wind 
shear will lighten up some while the system passes over 27/28C water 
with abundant deep layer moisture. The intensity forecast is similar 
to the previous advisory, bringing Cosme close to hurricane strength 
late today or tonight. Beyond 24 hours, vertical wind shear is 
forecast to increase and mid-level moisture is forecast to decrease, 
which should lead to a gradual weakening of Cosme. A more rapid 
weakening is then expected by Wednesday as the system moves over 
much cooler water, with Cosme expected to dissipate by 96 hours.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 14.2N 112.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 14.6N 113.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 15.0N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 15.4N 114.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 16.5N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 17.9N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z 19.0N 113.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:55 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:55 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:58 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:58 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025

816 
WTPZ22 KNHC 090842
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022025
0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.0W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.0W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 105.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.6N 107.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.8N 108.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 111.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 106.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/HAGEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 02:37:14 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 03:21:34 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 02:37:00 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 03:26:46 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 090235
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
900 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025
 
...BARBARA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 104.9W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.9 West.  Barbara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 
km/h) with higher gusts.  Barbara is forecast to become a 
hurricane by early Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Outer bands of Barbara may bring total rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches to coastal portions of the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through Monday. This
rainfall may lead to localized areas of flooding and mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Barbara, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
WIND: Gusty winds are likely along coastal areas of southwestern
Mexico during the next day or so.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 090235
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022025               
0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 105W       34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34  X   3( 3)  16(19)  15(34)   3(37)   X(37)   X(37)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 090235
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025
 
...COSME POISED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 111.9W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 111.9 West. Cosme is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a 
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected for the next day or 
two.  A slow down and turn to the northeast is forecast to occur by 
mid-week.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Cosme is forecast to be near hurricane strength on Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 090235
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032025               
0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 110W       34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
15N 115W       34  2  54(56)  12(68)   5(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
15N 115W       50  X  13(13)   9(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
15N 115W       64  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
20N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 090235
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
900 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025

After a marked decrease in deep convection a few hours ago, 
thunderstorm activity is now increasing near the center of the 
storm, with a comma-shaped pattern evolving.  A recent GPM 
microwave overpass suggested that the inner core structure is 
becoming a little better defined.  Subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimates are 55 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and this is used for 
the advisory intensity.  This is also in agreement with a blend of 
the various objective intensity estimates based on both 
geostationary and limited microwave imagery.

Although there is some scatter in the center fixes, the overall 
motion appears to be west-northwestward at around 300/9 kt.  
Though some of the track guidance suggests a more northwestward 
motion during the next few days, there should be enough of a ridge 
to the north of Barbara to prevent a significant northward turn 
during the next 48-72 hours.  In fact the GFS model, which appears 
to have the most realistic and about the strongest initialization 
for the system, is on the left side of the guidance envelope.  The 
official forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous one 
based on the model consensus, but leans toward the GFS solution.  By 
72-96 hours, Barbara should be reduced to a remnant low and move 
generally westward following the low-level flow.

Barbara is currently over warm waters within an environment of 
low vertical wind shear and high atmospheric moisture.  These 
factors should result in the cyclone strengthening into a hurricane 
very soon, and the NHC prediction is above almost all of the 
guidance.  In a day or so, cooler SSTs are expected to cause a 
weakening trend to begin.  The model guidance is in good agreement 
on Barbara weakening into a tropical depression in 60-72 hours, and 
this is also shown in the official forecast.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 16.5N 104.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 17.2N 106.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 18.3N 107.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 19.3N 108.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 20.2N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 20.5N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 20.5N 111.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0000Z 20.5N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 090235
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025

Cosme is gradually improving in organization with deep convection 
pulsing, albeit with the center on the northern edge of the 
convection.  A recent microwave pass did show a prominent curved 
band especially in the southern semicircle of the storm.  The 
initial wind speed will stay at 40 kt for this advisory, between 
the lower subjective Dvorak estimates and higher objective values.  

Conditions look conducive for strengthening for about the next 24 
hours while Cosme moves within a fairly low shear and warm SST 
environment.  Thereafter, some increase in easterly shear is 
possible, and the storm should move over a tight SST gradient into a 
drier airmass.  Cosme is forecast to respond to these conditions by 
weakening quickly by midweek.  The only change to the previous 
forecast is a small reduction in the intensity forecast at 60 and 72 
h, consistent with the latest model consensus.  It would not be 
surprising to see Cosme become a remnant low faster than shown 
below.

The storm continues moving northwestward at 8 kt, and a 
west-northwest to northwest motion is anticipated during the next 
day or so.  After that time, Tropical Storm Barbara causes a
mid-level ridge to erode, and Cosme should respond by taking a 
sharp turn to the northeast around Barbara.  Model guidance has 
shifted notably to the left this evening, suggesting a 
little more separation of the tropical cyclones before they 
interact.  While the new forecast is adjusted to the west, this is 
not a particularly confident longer-range forecast due to 
the complexity of the interaction.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 13.7N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 14.9N 114.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 15.3N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 15.8N 113.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 16.9N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 18.5N 113.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 02:37:00 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 02:37:00 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 02:37:14 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 02:37:14 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025

799 
WTPZ23 KNHC 090234
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032025
0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 111.9W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 111.9W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 111.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.9N 114.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.3N 114.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.8N 113.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 18.5N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 111.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 090234
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022025
0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.9W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE  75SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.9W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 104.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.2N 106.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.3N 107.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.3N 108.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.2N 109.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.5N 111.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 20.5N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 104.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH