5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 20:34:03 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 21:22:02 GMT
Archives for June 9, 2025
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 20:32:17 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 21:27:21 GMT
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 6
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
000 WTPZ23 KNHC 092030 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 2100 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 113.9W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 113.9W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.3N 114.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.8N 114.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.6N 113.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.8N 113.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.2N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.1N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 113.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Cosme Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
509 WTPZ33 KNHC 092030 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 ...COSME NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 113.9W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 113.9 West. Cosme is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decease in forward speed is expected by early Tuesday, followed by a faster north-northeast motion late Tuesday through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and Cosme could become a hurricane tonight. Rapid weakening is expected late Tuesday and Wednesday. Cosme will likely become a post-tropical low in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 092030
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
2100 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLA CLARION 34 2 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
15N 115W 34 76 8(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
15N 115W 50 14 7(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
15N 115W 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 092031 TCMEP2 HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 2100 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 106.8W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....135NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 106.8W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.2N 107.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.4N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.8N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MORA/KELLY
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 092031 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 Cosme continues to intensify and is nearing hurricane strength. Visible satellite images show that the convective bands have consolidated near the center, and there is some evidence of a partial inner core. A blend of the latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates support increasing the initial intensity to 60 kt. A partial ASCAT pass indicates that the wind field of Cosme is quite compact, and the initial wind radii have been updated based on that data. Some additional strengthening is possible in the short term, and Cosme could become a hurricane tonight while it remains in generally conducive environmental conditions. However, the combination of decreasing SSTs and intrusions of dry/stable air should end the strengthening trend by early Tuesday and then cause a quick weakening. Simulated satellite images from the GFS and ECMWF models show deep convection vanishing by Wednesday, and based on that guidance, the transition to a remnant low has been moved up to 48 hours. Dissipation is likely to occur in 3 to 4 days. The storm is moving northwestward at 8 kt, and this general motion should continue through tonight. After that time, a turn to the north or north-northeast is expected as Cosme moves toward a weakness left behind by Hurricane Barbara to its northeast. The NHC track forecast is in fair agreement with the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 15.0N 113.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 15.3N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 15.8N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 16.6N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 17.8N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 12/0600Z 19.2N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 20.1N 113.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Barbara Public Advisory Number 7
Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 092031 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Barbara Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 ...BARBARA HOLDING STEADY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 106.8W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Barbara was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 106.8 West. Barbara is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. A weakening trend should begin tonight, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Gusty winds are likely along coastal areas of southwestern Mexico tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Mora/Kelly
Hurricane Barbara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 092031
PWSEP2
HURRICANE BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
2100 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 1 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
$$
FORECASTER MORA/KELLY
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 20:32:17 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 20:32:17 GMT
Hurricane Barbara Forecast Discussion Number 7
Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
394 WTPZ42 KNHC 092032 TCDEP2 Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 Since the last advisory Barbara has become a little less organized. Latest GOES satellite imagery depicts the system starting to ingest some drier air which has caused fragmented banding. However, a central dense overcast has remained over the tiny inner core. The satellite intensity estimates have decreased slightly from the previous advisory ranging from 50 to 65 kt. Using these estimates, the intensity is held at 65 kt, although this may be generous. A mid-level ridge located over Mexico should continue to steer the system northwestward over the next couple of days. As Barbara begins to weaken into a shallow vortex and slow down, it will be steered by the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the simple and corrected consensus. Barbara likely has peaked as a short-lived hurricane. The environmental conditions will becoming increasingly hostile along the forecast track with the storm crossing into cooler SSTs and into a drier, more stable air mass. This will cause the system to steadily weaken, lose convective organization, and become post tropical by 36 h. The latest NHC forecast shows the system opening into a trough by 60 h and dissipating. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 18.2N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 19.2N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 21.4N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 21.8N 110.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Mora/Kelly
Hurricane Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 20:34:03 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 20:34:03 GMT
Hurricane Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 14:38:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 15:21:57 GMT
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 14:40:18 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 15:27:16 GMT
Tropical Storm Cosme Public Advisory Number 5
Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 091436 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 ...COSME FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 113.3W ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 113.3 West. Cosme is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north with a decease in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast motion Tuesday through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and Cosme is expected to become a hurricane later today. Rapid weakening is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 5
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
000 WTPZ23 KNHC 091436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 1500 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 113.3W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 113.3W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.8N 114.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.2N 114.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.8N 113.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.0N 113.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 18.5N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.6N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 6
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 091436 TCMEP2 HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 1500 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.1W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....135NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.1W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.6N 108.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.2N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 106.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS
Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 091436
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
1500 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 110W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ISLA CLARION 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17)
15N 115W 34 48 31(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
15N 115W 50 3 18(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
15N 115W 64 X 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Barbara Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 091437 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Barbara Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 ...BARBARA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 106.1W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Barbara was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 106.1 West. Barbara is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible today, but a weakening trend is forecast to begin on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Gusty winds are likely along coastal areas of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams
Hurricane Barbara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 091437
PWSEP2
HURRICANE BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
1500 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 5
Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 091437 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 Cosme continues to become better organized this morning, with a recent 0936Z/GPM pass indicating a partially closed eyewall structure. The most recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T3.5/55 kt. Meanwhile, the objective satellite estimates range from 48 to 61 knots. Given the improved structure noted in microwave imagery, along with a blend of the objective and subjective intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 55 kt. Cosme is moving toward the west-northwest at 6 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north and a slowing in forward speed is expected tonight, as Barbara erodes the mid-level ridge to the north of Cosme. A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast Tuesday through Wednesday as Cosme is swept northward into the break in the mid-level ridge created by Barbara. The latest track forecast is very close to that of the previous advisory and is generally a blend of the consensus guidance. Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening during the next 12 hours or so. Vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease, while water temperatures hold around 27/28C, and deep layer atmospheric moisture remains high. As a result, the official forecast calls for Cosme to become a hurricane later today. Little change in strength is then forecast tonight and Tuesday despite Cosme remaining over warm water, as increasing vertical wind shear and gradually decreasing deep-layer moisture should inhibit further intensification. Beginning Tuesday night and Wednesday, a more rapid weakening is forecast as the system moves over much cooler water, with Cosme expected to dissipate by 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 14.5N 113.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 14.8N 114.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 15.2N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 15.8N 113.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 17.0N 113.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 18.5N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 19.6N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi
Hurricane Barbara Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
837 WTPZ42 KNHC 091437 TCDEP2 Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 Barbara has become better organized as depicted in an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass, which shows the low-level center tucked under a large central dense overcast. The microwave imagery also indicates that a partial eyewall has formed, although it was open on the northern side. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB was T4.0/65 kt, and the objective satellite intensity aids from UW-CIMSS range from 55-65 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt for this advisory. This makes Barbara the first hurricane of the 2025 east Pacific hurricane season. The storm is estimated to be moving more northwestward at 310/9 kt. Barbara continues to be steered by a mid-level ridge located over Mexico and it should continue to move northwestward over the next few days. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to be on opposite sides of the guidance envelope, and this is mainly due to differences in when Barbara weakens and becomes steered by the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast was shifted slightly to the right, closer to the simple and corrected consensus. Barbara is likely near its peak intensity, as it only has about 6-12 more hours of a favorable environment. Along the forecast track, the system will be crossing over increasingly cooler sea surface temperatures overnight. Around the same time, the mid-level relative humidity values will begin to drop. This will cause the system to steadily weaken and lose convective organization. The storm is now forecast to become post-tropical in 36 h, and dissipate into an open trough by 60 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 17.6N 106.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 19.6N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 11/1200Z 21.2N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams
Hurricane Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 14:38:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 14:38:45 GMT
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 14:40:18 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 14:40:18 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:58 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 09:21:38 GMT
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:55 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 09:26:47 GMT
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:55 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:55 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:58 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2025 08:48:58 GMT
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025
225 WTPZ23 KNHC 090845 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.8W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.8W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.6N 113.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.0N 114.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.4N 114.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.5N 113.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.9N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.0N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/HAGEN
Tropical Storm Cosme Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
003 WTPZ33 KNHC 090845 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 ...COSME STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 112.8W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 112.8 West. Cosme is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected today and tonight with a slowing in forward speed. A turn to the northeast and an increase in forward speed is forecast late Tuesday through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Cosme is forecast to be near hurricane strength late today or tonight. The system is then expected to weaken quickly late Tuesday through Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Hagen