5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 20:31:50 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 21:27:09 GMT
Archives for June 8, 2025
Tropical Storm Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 20:34:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 21:21:57 GMT
Tropical Storm Cosme Public Advisory Number 2
Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 082030 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM COSME... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 111.0W ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 111.0 West. Cosme is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. A slow down and turn to the northeast is forecast to occur by mid-week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Cosme is forecast to be near hurricane strength on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025
000 WTPZ23 KNHC 082030 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 111.0W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 111.0W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.0N 111.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.7N 113.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.1N 113.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.5N 113.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.4N 113.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 082030 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 Deep convection has been increasing near the center and in curved bands on the western side of the circulation during the past several hours. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago showed peak winds in the 35-40 kt range, and based on that data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Cosme with the initial intensity set at 40 kt. Cosme will likely continue to strengthen for the next day or two as it remains in an environment of low to moderate wind shear, abundant moisture, and over warm SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast shows a peak of 60 kt at 24 and 36 hours, and it wouldn't be surprising if Cosme becomes a hurricane during that time frame. By mid-week, however, the storm is expected to move over progressively cooler waters and into a drier airmass, which should cause the system to begin weakening. Cosme is now forecast to become a remnant low in 3 days and dissipate in 4 days. The storm is moving northwestward at 7 kt, and that general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. After that time, the interaction with Barbara will likely result in an initial slow down and then turn to the northeast. There is a fair amount of spread in the guidance due to the complexity of this interaction. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the right of the previous one to account for the initial motion/position and to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 13.3N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 14.0N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 14.7N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 15.1N 113.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 15.5N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 16.4N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 082030
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 110W 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
15N 115W 34 1 16(17) 22(39) 8(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48)
15N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 20:31:50 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 20:31:50 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025
408 WTPZ32 KNHC 082031 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 300 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025 ...BARBARA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 104.1W ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 104.1 West. Barbara is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is anticipated on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane overnight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: RAINFALL: Outer bands of Barbara may bring total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through Monday. This rainfall may lead to localized areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Barbara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Gusty winds are likely along coastal areas of southwestern Mexico. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025
407 WTPZ22 KNHC 082031 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 104.1W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 104.1W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.7N 105.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.8N 107.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.8N 108.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 110.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.7N 111.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.4N 112.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 19.1N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 104.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025
267 WTPZ42 KNHC 082032 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 300 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025 Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Barbara this afternoon, with cold cloud tops near -75 C. However, a dry slot in the eastern semi-circle looks to have slightly disrupted the convective organization. Subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 45-55 kt this cycle. Using a blend of satellite estimates and the latest imagery the intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory. Barbara is currently within a favorable environment with warm SSTs and low vertical wind shear. Strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane overnight. After 24 h, the system will be moving over cooler sea surface temperatures below 26C and into a drier mid-level environment. These factors will cause the storm to weaken and eventually struggle to produce convection. Latest model IR simulated satellite imagery shows the system losing convection by 72 h. This suggests that it will become a a post-tropical remnant low by that time and likely dissipate by day 5 although that could occur sooner than currently forecast. Barbara is moving west-northwestward at 295/10, steered by a mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this motion should continue over the next couple of days. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly rightward and lies just left of the the simple and corrected consensus aids. Given the forecast track and wind radii, tropical-storm-force winds are not expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico. By Tuesday, the track forecast becomes more complicated given the potential interaction between Barbara and Cosme. The GFS and ECMWF are on opposite ends of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 16.0N 104.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.7N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 17.8N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 18.8N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 19.6N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 19.7N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 19.4N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 19.1N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Barbara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025
611
FOPZ12 KNHC 082032
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
2100 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
15N 105W 34 4 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
L CARDENAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 33(53) 4(57) X(57) X(57)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 10(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 20:34:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 20:34:34 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 14:39:26 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 15:22:06 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 14:39:26 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 15:22:06 GMT
Tropical Depression Three-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 14:36:19 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 15:27:23 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025
578 WTPZ42 KNHC 081514 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 900 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025 Barbara continues to become better organized this morning with deep convection bursting near the low-level center. Earlier AMSR2 microwave imagery depicts improved curved banding with an inner core in the formative stage. This structure has led to an improved satellite depiction and intensification. Subjective and objective intensity estimates have continued to increase this morning, using a blend of these estimates the intensity is set to 50 kt for this advisory. The system is currently within a favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Further strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and this could occur rather quickly given the small inner core of Barbara. The latest NHC intensity forecast has increased slightly form the previous one and shows Barbara becoming a hurricane in 12 hrs. However, there are some intensity aids that are a little higher than the NHC forecast, including some explicitly forecasting Rapid Intensification (RI). RI is possible, and this is something we will have to monitor over the succeeding forecasts. After 24-36 hrs, the system will be moving over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment. These factors will cause the system to weaken and eventually struggle to produce convection. Global model infrared simulated satellite images depicts the system losing convection by 72 h. By day 4, the system should degenerate into a remnant low, and dissipate by day 5 as it interacts with the circulation of TD Three-E. Barbara is moving west-northwestward (295/10 kt) on the south side of a mid-level ridge, and this motion should continue over the next couple of days. The NHC forecast is near the previous one and lies close to the simple and corrected consensus aids. Given the forecast track and wind radii, tropical-storm-force winds are not expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico. By Tuesday, the track forecast becomes more complicated given the potential for binary interaction between Barbara and TD Three-E. Because of this, the long-range track forecast could be subject to large future adjustments depending on the evolution of TD Three-E. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 15.7N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 16.4N 104.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 17.6N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 18.6N 107.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 19.4N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 19.5N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 19.5N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 12/1200Z 19.1N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Barbara Public Advisory Number 2
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 081436 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 900 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025 ...BARBARA STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 103.1W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 103.1 West. Barbara is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is anticipated on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane later tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Barbara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Gusty winds are likely along coastal areas of southwestern Mexico. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 081436 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.1W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.1W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 102.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.4N 104.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.6N 106.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.6N 107.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.4N 109.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 111.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.5N 112.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 19.1N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 103.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Barbara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 081436
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 105W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 39(48) 12(60) X(60) X(60)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 13(29) X(29) X(29)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Depression Three-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 14:36:19 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 14:36:19 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 14:39:26 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 14:39:27 GMT
Tropical Depression Three-E Graphics
Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025
012 WTPZ23 KNHC 081433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 110.6W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 110.6W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.3N 111.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.2N 112.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.7N 113.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.2N 114.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.7N 113.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 18.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 110.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Depression Three-E (EP3/EP032025)
…TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DEVELOPS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO… As of 8:00 AM MST Sun Jun 08 the center of Three-E was located near 12.6, -110.6 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Three-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 081433
PWSEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
1500 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 110W 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14)
15N 115W 34 X 6( 6) 41(47) 13(60) 3(63) X(63) X(63)
15N 115W 50 X X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
15N 115W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Jun 08 2025
785 WTPZ43 KNHC 081434 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 AM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure well southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico have shown considerable improvement this morning. Well-organized curved bands have been present during the last 6-12 hours with deep convection building near the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB came in at 1.5/25 kt and 2.0/30 kt, respectively. Additionally, overnight satellite-derived wind data showed 30 kt winds in the northwest quadrant of the low pressure area. Given the improved convective organization and data suggesting maximum sustained winds of 30 kt, Tropical Depression Three-E has now formed with the initial intensity set at 30 kt. The initial motion of Tropical Depression Three-E is set at 310/07 kt. This general motion is expected to continue today and tonight, followed by a much more uncertain motion Monday through mid-week due to the expected interaction with Tropical Storm Barbara. This interaction will likely result in a decrease in forward speed and a more northward to northeastward motion on Monday, followed by an increase in forward speed and a shift back to the northwest by Tuesday. The track forecast generally follows the consensus guidance, which is in between the two extremes of the GFS and ECMWF models. Tropical Depression Three-E is forecast to remain in a low to moderate vertical wind shear environment with warm sea surface temperatures of 27 to 28C and abundant deep layer moisture during the next couple days. This should allow for steady strengthening, and the system will likely become a tropical storm later today. By Monday night, the tropical cyclone will begin to move over much cooler water below 26C, and this in combination with the interaction with Barbara should result in rather rapid weakening, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Thursday morning. The intensity forecast is roughly a split of the statistical and dynamical consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 12.6N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 13.3N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 14.2N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 14.7N 113.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 15.2N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 15.7N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 18.3N 114.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Barbara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 08:41:42 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jun 2025 09:21:39 GMT
Tropical Storm Barbara Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025
636 WTPZ22 KNHC 080836 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025 0900 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.4W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.4W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 102.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.8N 103.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.0N 105.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.3N 107.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.1N 108.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.8N 112.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 102.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Barbara Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025
486 WTPZ32 KNHC 080838 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barbara Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 300 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 102.4W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 102.4 West. Barbara is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is anticipated on Tuesday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Barbara is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Barbara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Barbara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025
362
FOPZ12 KNHC 080838
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
0900 UTC SUN JUN 08 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 105W 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MANZANILLO 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
L CARDENAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 24(29) 23(52) X(52) X(52)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 14(24) X(24) X(24)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART