5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 23:48:27 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 21:22:59 GMT
Archives for November 14, 2024
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 5A
Issued at 700 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 142348 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 700 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SARA... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 84.0W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 84.0 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move close to the northern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days and approach the coast of Belize on Sunday. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of days if the center of Sara remains offshore of the northern coast of Honduras. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, primarily to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Nicaragua tonight. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 5
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 142057 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Corrected country name in the intensity forecast section ...SARA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 83.5 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days, and approach the coast of Belize on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible if the center of Sara remains offshore of the northern coast of Honduras. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, primarily to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Nicaragua through tonight. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 142044
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
2100 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
BELIZE CITY 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 12(22) 4(26) X(26)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14)
GUANAJA 34 20 37(57) 6(63) 3(66) 1(67) 1(68) X(68)
GUANAJA 50 X 7( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
GUANAJA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 20:46:50 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 20:46:50 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 5
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 142044 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...SARA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 83.5 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days, and approach the coast of Belize on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible if the center of Sara remains offshore of the northern coast of Belize. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, primarily to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Nicaragua through tonight. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 5
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 142044 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 2100 UTC THU NOV 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 83.5W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 83.5W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 83.1W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.7W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.5W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.1N 85.9W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.1N 86.4W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.3N 87.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.3N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 83.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 5
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 142044 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Convective banding associated with the cyclone continued to improve especially over the western semicircle of the system after the release of the 1500 UTC advisory. A couple of Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that have flew through the system early this afternoon reported dropsonde data that supported a minimum pressure of 998 mb and peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 42 kt. These data supported the upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm Sara on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from both SAB and TAFB also support 35 kt, therefore the initial intensity for this advisory is at that value. The forward speed of Sara is beginning to decrease as expected. The cyclone is now moving westward or 270 degrees at 9 kt. Sara should continue to move westward during the next couple of days to the south of a strong mid-level ridge, however a continued deceleration of Sara's forward speed is expected. By Sunday, the center of the ridge is forecast to move eastward over Florida which should cause Sara to turn west-northwestward when it approaches Belize and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Most of the track guidance has nudged northward this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new track continues to be along or just north of the coast of northern Honduras and it is in good agreement with the latest consensus aids. Environmental conditions are conducive for some strengthening during the next couple of days, but the main inhibiting factor is the sprawling structure of the cyclone and its close proximity to land. Given that the system is forecast to pass very close to the northern coast of Honduras, only modest strengthening is suggested by most of the guidance. The NHC intensity forecast calls for some strengthening during the next couple of days, follow by little change in intensity until the system moves over the Yucatan peninsula. It should be noted that a more northern track, could result in additional strengthening, but the global models and most of the intensity guidance does not favor that scenario. The global models indicate that the system will weakening quickly while it moves over the Yucatan peninsula and that the circulation is not likely to survive the passage over the peninsula. Therefore, the new forecast now calls for dissipation by day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over portions of northern Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where tropical storm warnings are in effect. 4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 16.1N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 16.1N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 16.3N 87.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 19.3N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 17:46:12 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 15:24:02 GMT
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 4A
Issued at 100 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 141745 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 100 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SARA... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 82.9W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 82.9 West. The system is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion should continue through today, bringing the center near the coast of eastern Honduras. The system is expected to meander near the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Data from the Air Force Reserve aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible, if the system remains over water. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km) from the center, mainly in the northern semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Depression Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 141449
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
1500 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 2(18)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12)
GUANAJA 34 X 14(14) 11(25) 9(34) 5(39) 2(41) X(41)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 141450 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Latest satellite imagery depicts that the system continues to become better organized this morning, with improved curved banding features, and deep convection consolidating near the low-level center. The latest subjective intensity estimates were T/2.5 from both TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is about to enter the system which will provide more information on current intensity and structure. The cyclone is moving westward with an estimated motion of 265/12 kt. A strong mid-level ridge located to the north of the system will continue steer the system westward towards Central America. The ridge is expected to break down, and the cyclone will meander in weak steering currents, Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central America. By early next week, the mid-level ridge should slide eastward over Florida, which should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus models, and is nudged slightly left towards the latest model trends. Environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for some strengthening during the next day or so while the cyclone remains over water. There remains uncertainty in how much land interaction there will be with Honduras during the next several days, but the model trends have been southward showing more interaction. If the system remains along the coast or just offshore, it will likely maintain intensity or slightly strengthen. However, if the depression moves a little south of the forecast track, the system could be weaker than shown below. Given the slight leftward track adjustment with potentially more land interaction, the latest NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where tropical storm warnings are in effect. 3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by early next week where there is a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates. 4. It is too soon to determine what impacts, if any, the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 15.7N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 15.7N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 15.9N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 16/0000Z 15.9N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 16/1200Z 15.9N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 17/0000Z 16.0N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 17/1200Z 16.2N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 18/1200Z 18.0N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1200Z 21.7N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 14:51:14 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 14:51:14 GMT
Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 141449 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 82.6W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for Honduras and the Bay Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 82.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion should continue through today, bringing the center near the coast of eastern Honduras. The system is expected to meander near the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 82.6W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for Honduras and the Bay Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 82.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion should continue through today, bringing the center near the coast of eastern Honduras. The system is expected to meander near the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 141448 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 1500 UTC THU NOV 14 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 82.6W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 82.6W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 82.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.7N 83.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.9N 84.9W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.9N 85.4W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.9N 85.8W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.0N 86.2W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.2N 87.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.7N 91.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 82.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:03 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 09:22:46 GMT
Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 3A
Issued at 700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 141148 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 82.2W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 82.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This motion should continue through today, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening, if it remains over water. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 08:50:04 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 08:50:04 GMT
Tropical Depression Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 140848
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 6(14)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 9(25) 6(31)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 5(20) 3(23)
GUANAJA 34 X 6( 6) 25(31) 14(45) 21(66) 3(69) 1(70)
GUANAJA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 10(22) 2(24) 1(25)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
S SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
TEGUCIGALPA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)
P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 140848 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been improving. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt. Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression. This is supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which shows a well-defined circulation. The intensity is set to 30 kt based on the Dvorak estimates. Tropical Depression Nineteen has been moving faster, just south of due west, or 265/14 kt, although it should begin slowing down later today. A mid-level ridge centered to the north of the depression over the Straits of Florida should keep it on a westward track until Friday, taking the system near the north coast of eastern Honduras, and possibly inland. After that, the ridge is expected to break down, and the models agree that the cyclone will meander in weak steering currents late Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central America. By early next week, ridging should become re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Very little change was made to the first 3 days of the track forecast. Beyond day 3, there has been a notable westward shift in the track guidance. The NHC forecast is a bit west of the previous forecast beyond day 3, but not as far west as the bulk of the latest model guidance. Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification during the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities. However, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much land interaction with Honduras occurs. The majority of the models are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72. However, if the system stays offshore, as shown by the latest HWRF model solution, it could take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions and continue to strengthen. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but then is about 5 kt lower than the previous forecast since this forecast shows a bit more land interaction beyond 36 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is above the high end of the guidance envelope beyond 36 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area. 3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 140846 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.7W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.7W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 81.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 140847 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 81.7W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, and in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 81.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion should continue through today, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening, if it remains over water. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning late today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 05:43:19 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 03:22:59 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Public Advisory Number 2A
Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 140543 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 100 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 81.2W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, and in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 81.2 West. The system is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion should continue for another day or so, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening, if it remains over water. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning late today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 140234
PWSAT4
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 7(17)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 9(21) 9(30)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8)
BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 6(22)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
GUANAJA 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 19(37) 15(52) 7(59) 2(61)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 4(21) 3(24)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
MANAGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
S SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
TEGUCIGALPA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 140234 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 The disturbance has not changed much over the past several hours with deep convection persisting near and to the west of the estimated center. Although the convection is relatively well organized, the definition of the low-level circulation remains poor, and for that reason, the system is not yet a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 25 kt and the minimum pressure is around 1005 mb based on surface observations. The system continues to move westward at about 8 kt on the south side of a mid-level ridge that is centered near the Florida Straits. This ridge should keep the disturbance on a westward track until Friday, taking the system over or just north of eastern Honduras. After that, the ridge is expected to break down, and the models agree that cyclone will meander in weak steering currents from late Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central America. By early next week, ridging should become re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus models. Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening during the next few days with vertical wind shear expected to be low and mid-level humidities forecast to remain relatively high near the system. However, there remains a significant amount of uncertainty in how much land interaction there will be with Honduras during the next several days. If the system remains offshore, it will likely take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions and at least steadily strengthen through the weekend. However, if the system moves even a little south of the forecast track, notably less strengthening or even weakening could occur. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous one and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that there is a lot of uncertainty in this intensity forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area. 3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 16.1N 80.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 14/1200Z 16.1N 82.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 15/0000Z 16.2N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 16/0000Z 16.2N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 17/0000Z 15.9N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 96H 18/0000Z 16.6N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 19.3N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 02:35:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 02:35:39 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
612 WTNT24 KNHC 140233 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0300 UTC THU NOV 14 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 80.2W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 80.2W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.1N 82.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.2N 83.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.2N 85.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 85.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.9N 85.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 16.6N 86.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 19.3N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 80.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Public Advisory Number 2
Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 140234 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 80.2W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Sal eastward to the border with Nicaragua and for the Bay Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, and in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 80.2 West. The system is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow westward motion should continue for another day or two, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and continue strengthening, if it remains over water. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning late Thursday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi