Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024
449 WTPZ31 KNHC 020844 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...DEPRESSION FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 95.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning westward along the southern coast of Mexico to Lagunas de Chacahua, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch east of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the depression is located farther west than previously estimated. At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 95.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area late tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area today and tonight. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch