Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020845 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 Data from both ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometers show that the center of the small circulation is located somewhat west to west-southwest of the earlier track. There were a couple of scatterometer vectors showing minimal tropical-storm-force winds, but these appear to be rain-inflated. The advisory intensity is kept at 30 kt based on subjective and objective satellite estimates, and the unimpressive appearance of the system. With the re-positioning of the estimated center, the motion is highly uncertain but my best guess is around 290/5 kt. The track forecast is also quite uncertain, but needs to be shifted westward from the previous one. The new official forecast is a compromise between the previous NHC prediction, the trajectory model forecasts, and the dynamical models which are farther south. The cyclone continues to have the potential for a little strengthening before it reaches the coast, although fairly strong northeasterly vertical wind shear will likely limit its intensification. The official intensity forecast is near the upper end of the model guidance. The main impact from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico. Since the system is now farther west than earlier indicated, the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward along the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 15.4N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 15.5N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.6N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 15.7N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 16.1N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch