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NHC Hurricane Advisories

Archives for October 1, 2024

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 1A

, UTC by

Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 012334
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112024
600 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024
 
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN 
WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 94.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 94.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion should continue during the next couple of days. On 
the forecast track, the depression is likely to approach the coast 
of Mexico within the warning area through tonight and move inland on
Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm 
later tonight, with further intensification possible until
landfall.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area Wednesday morning and are possible in the watch area 
on Wednesday afternoon.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of
flooding and mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico.  These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 


000
FONT12 KNHC 012054
PWSAT2
                                                                    
HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024               
2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MORA/PAPIN

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 


576 
WTPZ21 KNHC 012052
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112024
2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  94.6W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  94.6W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  94.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.5N  94.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.9N  94.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.5N  94.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N  94.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N  94.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 012053
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112024
300 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024
 
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING LIKELY FOR THAT AREA AND WESTERN 
GUATEMALA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 94.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for 
the coast of southern Mexico from east of Puerto Angel to Boca de 
Pijijiapan and a Tropical Storm Watch from east of Boca de 
Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 
* East of Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 
* East of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the 
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 94.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this 
general motion should continue for the next couple of days. On the 
forecast track, the depression is likely to approach the coast of 
Mexico within the warning area through tonight and move inland on 
Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm this evening 
or overnight, with further intensification possible until landfall.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the 
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO 
header WTPZ41 KNHC. 

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the 
warning area on Wednesday morning and are possible in the watch 
area on Wednesday afternoon. 

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 
inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across 
portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, 
Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of 
flooding and mudslides. 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total 
Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf 

SURF:  Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southeastern Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 


000
FOPZ11 KNHC 012053
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112024               
2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ANGEL        34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 95W        34 17   9(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
SALINA CRUZ    34  1   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

, UTC by

Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 012055
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112024
300 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024

The small area of low pressure we have been monitoring for the past 
couple of days has become well-defined on satellite imagery this 
afternoon and was confirmed with recent scatterometer data.  There 
has been enough organized deep convection today to consider this a 
tropical depression, as suggested by the Data-T estimate from 
TAFB, and the initial wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with 
the max believable scatterometer values.

The initial motion is an uncertain 360/4 kt.  The depression has 
been moving northward on the eastern end of the monsoon trough, and 
this general track is anticipated through landfall with little 
change seen in the steering flow for the next day or two.  However, 
the model guidance is all over the place, owing to differences in 
the initial depth of the tropical depression and strength of the 
circulation associated with the monsoon trough and Invest 97E.  The 
ECMWF model seems to have the best representation of the initial 
vortex, and the track forecast heavily leans on that model 
solution, especially given its recent successes with cyclones in 
that area.  However, there is considerable spread in the guidance, 
and the tropical storm warning is larger than typical based on that 
uncertainty.

Northeasterly shear is expected to continue to affect the 
depression through landfall, though very warm SSTs and a moist 
mid-level environment should promote some strengthening.  These 
conditions would seem to favor intensification through landfall, 
and the first forecast shows a mid-range tropical storm, above most 
of the model guidance.  At this point, extreme rainfall and flash 
flooding seem to be the biggest threats from this system.

 
KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later 
tonight or on Wednesday.   A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect 
for a portion of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical 
storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday.

2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to 
portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, 
especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican 
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 15.1N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 15.5N  94.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 15.9N  94.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 16.5N  94.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/1800Z 17.1N  94.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 9

, UTC by

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 


000
WTNT32 KNHC 012054
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024
 
...KIRK BECOMES A HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 40.1W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 40.1 West. Kirk is moving toward 
the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a general west-northwestward 
to northwest motion is expected for the next several days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the 
next 48 hours and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane by 
Thursday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Mora/Papin

Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 9

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 


000
WTNT22 KNHC 012054
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024
2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  40.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 170SE  70SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE  90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  40.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  39.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.1N  41.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.3N  43.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.4N  44.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.4N  46.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  35SE  25SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.5N  47.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.9N  49.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 27.0N  51.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 33.0N  49.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...120NE 115SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 160NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N  40.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER MORA/PAPIN

Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 9

, UTC by

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 


000
WTNT42 KNHC 012055
TCDAT2
 
Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

Kirk's appearance on satellite has improved with a large burst of 
convection near the center and deep convective bands continuing to 
wrap around the southeast side. A 1808 UTC GPM microwave pass 
showed an improved inner-core structure with an eyewall noted on the 
37 GHz channel. The UW-CIMSS DMINT intensity estimate associated 
with the microwave image was 63 kt. This estimate combined with the 
most recent TAFB Dvorak fix of 4.0/65 kt is the basis for making 
Kirk a hurricane this afternoon with an intensity of 65 kt.  

Kirk is moving slightly more poleward this afternoon, with an 
estimated motion of 305/12 kt. This motion, with perhaps a slight 
slowdown, should continue over the next couple of days as Kirk is 
primarily steered along the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge 
positioned to its north. The western extent of this ridge will 
become eroded by a long-wave trough offshore of eastern North 
America towards the latter part of this week, allowing Kirk to turn 
first northwestward and then recurving north-northeastward by the 
end of the forecast period. The track guidance continues to be in 
good agreement, and the latest NHC track forecast lies near the 
middle of the guidance envelope, very similar to the prior advisory 
and between the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids.

Now that Kirk's inner core is becoming better established it is 
poised to intensify at a faster rate. Favorable environmental 
factors surrounding Kirk, such as decreasing shear, warm 28-30 C 
sea-surface temperatures, and plenty of deep-layer moisture will 
continue to support a faster rate of strengthening through the 24-48 
h period. The NHC intensity forecast shows Kirk becoming a major 
hurricane towards the end of the forecast period. In addition, 
Kirk's wind field is forecast to expand as the system moves poleward 
through the end of the week. Thereafter, hard to predict inner-core 
structural changes will likely lead to fluctuations in intensity, 
though by day 5, shear increases again with weakening commencing. 
However, Kirk will likely remain a large and formidable hurricane 
through the forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is close the middle 
of the intensity guidance consensus and still a little on the 
upper-end towards the end of the forecast period. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 16.2N  40.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 17.1N  41.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 18.3N  43.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 19.4N  44.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 20.4N  46.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 21.5N  47.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 22.9N  49.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 27.0N  51.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 33.0N  49.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Mora/Papin

Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 


000
FONT12 KNHC 011452
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024               
1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 8

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 


008 
WTNT32 KNHC 011451
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024
 
...NEARBY BUOY FINDS A STRONGER KIRK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 39.2W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was 
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 39.2 West. Kirk is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this 
motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn more 
northwestward over the next several days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is anticipated and 
Kirk should become a hurricane by tonight, and a major hurricane in 
a couple of days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) 
from the center. A PIRATA Buoy (13008) earlier this morning 
measured a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h), and a gust to 51 mph 
(83 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). A 
PIRATA Buoy 13008 earlier reported a minimum pressure of 990.2 mb 
(29.24 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 8

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 


009 
WTNT22 KNHC 011451
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024
1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  39.2W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 130SE  70SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE  60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  39.2W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  38.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N  40.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N  42.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N  43.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.3N  45.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.5N  46.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.6N  48.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.0N  51.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 30.0N  51.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 150SW 170NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N  39.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 8

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 


000
WTNT42 KNHC 011453
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024
 
Kirk's structure on satellite is gradually becoming better 
organized, with deep convective bands attempting to wrap around the 
center, though there still remains evidence that dry air could be 
getting into the core on the western side. Some of this less humid 
air could be getting imported due to subtle northerly mid-level 
shear above 20-kt as diagnosed by the ECMWF analysis this morning. 
With that said, we have received some fortuitous surface data from 
a moored PIRATA buoy (13008) that Kirk passed close by this morning 
at around 09 UTC. The buoy reported sustained tropical-storm-force 
winds at 4 meters, and a concurrent minimum pressure down to 990 
mb. Thus the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt with an 
estimated minimum pressure a little lower at 988 mb. This intensity 
is a little above the subjective Dvorak estimates but closest to 
the latest DPRINT estimate from UW-CIMSS.  

Kirk is still moving west-northwestward, estimated at 300/11 kt. 
This motion with perhaps a slight slowdown should continue over the 
next couple of days as Kirk is primarily steered along the 
southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge positioned to its north. 
The western extent of this ridge will become eroded by a long-wave 
trough offshore of eastern North America towards the 
latter part of this week, allowing Kirk to turn first northwestward 
and then northward by the end of the forecast period. The track 
guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the latest NHC track 
forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, very similar 
to the prior advisory and between the consensus aids HCCA and TVCN. 

While Kirk is stronger this morning, it is feeling some of the 
effects of the aforementioned mid-level shear, preventing 
convection from fully wrapping around the center. However, other 
environmental factors, namely warm 28-30 C sea-surface temperatures 
and plenty of deep-layer moisture, are quite conducive for 
strengthening. For now, the shear is anticipated to prevent a 
faster rate of intensification, but Kirk should become a hurricane 
later today. After 24 h, even the mid-level shear is expected to 
decrease, and a faster period of intensification is likely in the 
24-60 h period. The NHC intensity forecast shows Kirk becoming a 
major hurricane at the end of this period. In addition, Kirk's wind 
field is also forecast to grow in size by the end of the week. 
Thereafter, hard to predict inner-core structural changes will 
likely lead to fluctuations in intensity, though by day 5 shear 
begins to increase again with weakening beginning by that time. 
However, Kirk will likely remain a large and formidable hurricane. 
The NHC intensity forecast is close the middle of the guidance 
envelope early on but is near the higher end of the aids in 72 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 15.3N  39.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 16.0N  40.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 17.0N  42.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 18.2N  43.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 19.3N  45.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 20.5N  46.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 21.6N  48.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 25.0N  51.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 30.0N  51.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 


690 
FONT12 KNHC 010844
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024               
0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN

Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 


000
WTNT42 KNHC 010845
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Kirk's structure hasn't changed 
very much over the past 6 h.  The infrared imagery consists of a 
large comma-shaped area of deep convection.  ASCAT data from Monday 
evening as well as a more recent 01/0416 AMSR2 image indicate that 
the center is near the northern edge of the convection.  The AMSR2 
image also indicates that the convective bands haven't become any 
better organized around the center over the past 6 h.  The latest 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, and 
the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 49 
to 56 kt.  Given that the highest ASCAT vectors from around 0000 UTC 
were about 43 kt, and taking into account the recent intensity 
estimates, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt, which is unchanged 
from the previous NHC advisory.

Kirk is estimated to be moving west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt. 
This general motion should continue for the next day or so while 
Kirk moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer 
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn toward 
the northwest is expected during the middle part of the week, 
followed by a recurvature to the north over the central Atlantic by 
the end of the forecast period.  The track guidance is in good 
agreement for the first couple days of the forecast, with a bit of 
spread noted thereafter.  The new NHC track forecast is similar to 
the previous official forecast through 72 h, and west of the 
previous forecast at days 4 and 5, close to the multi-model 
consensus aid TVCA.

Favorable environmental conditions are forecast to persist along 
Kirk's path through the next 4 days or so, with warm ocean waters, 
weak vertical wind shear and a relatively moist and unstable 
atmosphere.  Kirk has a broad structure with a large wind field.  
The tropical storm force radii are forecast to continue increasing 
through the forecast period.  This structure could limit Kirk's 
chances for rapid strengthening, despite the favorable environment. 
Little change has been made to the NHC intensity forecast, which 
calls for steady strengthening over the next 3 days.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance envelope.  
Kirk is forecast to become a large, major hurricane over the open 
central Atlantic later this week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 14.9N  38.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 15.5N  39.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 16.5N  41.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 17.6N  43.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 18.7N  44.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 19.9N  45.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 21.1N  47.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 24.2N  49.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 29.0N  49.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 


692 
WTNT22 KNHC 010844
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024
0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  38.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE  60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  38.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  37.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.5N  39.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE  40SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.5N  41.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE  70SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.6N  43.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.7N  44.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.9N  45.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.1N  47.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 24.2N  49.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 29.0N  49.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...150NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 140SW 180NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N  38.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Remnants of Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 


164 
FONT11 KNHC 010231
PWSAT1
                                                                    
REMNANTS OF JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112024               
0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF JOYCE WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35
MPH...55 KM/H.                                                      
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 


000
FONT12 KNHC 010233
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024               
0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 


852 
WTNT42 KNHC 010234
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024
 
Satellite images indicate Kirk is an asymmetric tropical storm with 
curved bands of deep convection primarily over the eastern half of 
the circulation. Recent scatterometer winds indicate the center of 
Kirk is slightly north of previous estimates, with a large 
tropical-storm-force wind field over the eastern semicircle. Based 
on the scatterometer data and a blend of the various satellite 
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt.

Kirk is now moving west-northwestward (285/10 kt). This general 
motion should continue for the next couple of days while Kirk moves 
around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge 
over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn toward the northwest is 
anticipated during the middle part of the week, followed by a 
recurvature to the north-northwest and north over the central 
Atlantic by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The track guidance 
remains in very good agreement, and only minor adjustments were made 
to the NHC track forecast. 
 
Very warm waters, weak vertical wind shear, and a moist environment 
should support steady to perhaps rapid strengthening of Kirk during 
the next several days. The tropical storm is currently broad and 
lacks an inner core, but the forecast shows a faster rate of 
strengthening by midweek as Kirk is expected to become better 
organized within this favorable environment. No significant changes 
were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which lies on the higher 
side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the 
statistical-dynamical aids and some of the regional hurricane 
models. The models agree that the wind field of Kirk will grow quite 
large later in the period as the cyclone gains latitude over open 
waters. Ultimately, Kirk is forecast to become a large, major 
hurricane over the open central Atlantic later this week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 14.4N  36.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 14.8N  38.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 15.8N  40.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 16.8N  42.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 18.0N  43.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 19.2N  45.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 20.4N  46.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 23.3N  48.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 27.5N  49.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Remnants of Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 15

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 


000
WTNT21 KNHC 010230
TCMAT1
 
REMNANTS OF JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112024
0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024
 
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  49.0W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  49.0W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  48.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  49.0W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE 
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Remnants of Joyce Public Advisory Number 15

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 


000
WTNT31 KNHC 010231
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Remnants Of Joyce Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112024
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024
 
...JOYCE DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON JOYCE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 49.0W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Joyce were located near
latitude 23.0 North, longitude 49.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). The remnants of Joyce are 
expected to merge with a mid-latitude trough and accelerate 
northeastward during the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane 
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky