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Archives for August 14, 2024

Hurricane Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 


164 
FONT15 KNHC 142042
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024               
2100 UTC WED AUG 14 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  41(43)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)  58(83)   6(89)   X(89)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  51(54)   7(61)   X(61)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  33(33)   5(38)   X(38)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GRAND TURK     34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 13

, UTC by

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 


000
WTNT45 KNHC 142042
TCDAT5
 
Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
 
Visible satellite imagery shows that Ernesto's cloud field is 
gradually expanding, and there have been hints of an eye potentially 
forming in the Central Dense Overcast.  The Air Force Reserve 
mission from a few hours ago found that the central pressure had 
fallen to 989 mb, but there were no indications that the maximum 
winds were any higher than 65 kt.  The initial intensity is 
therefore held at that level, which is also supported by the latest 
satellite intensity estimates.

Ernesto is still moving northwestward but continues to turn to the 
right, and the initial motion is 325/14 kt.  A turn toward the 
north-northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday as 
the hurricane moves through a break in the subtropical ridge, but 
the trough causing this break is forecast to leave Ernesto behind 
later in the week.  The result is that Ernesto is likely to slow 
down while it passes very near Bermuda Friday night and Saturday.  
Thereafter, a second trough approaching from the west should cause 
Ernesto to accelerate toward the northeast, near or just south of 
Atlantic Canada.  The track models are in very good agreement on 
this scenario, but there is a bit of east-to-west spread after 48 
hours.  The new NHC track forecast has been nudged eastward after 
48 hours to be close to the multi-model consensus aids, although at 
this time it is too soon to know exactly how close Ernesto's center 
will move to Bermuda this weekend.
 
An environment of warm ocean waters (around 29 degrees Celsius) and 
low to moderate shear should allow Ernesto to strengthen gradually 
during the next few days.  Most of the intensity models indicate 
that the hurricane should peak in intensity in about 48 hours.  At 
that time, the official forecast shows a peak of 100 kt--major 
hurricane--which is near the top end of the guidance and close to 
the HAFS-B, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA models.  A weakening trend should 
begin after 48 hours due to moderate shear and a drier, more stable 
atmosphere, but the weakening is likely to be gradual.  As a result, 
the official forecast keeps Ernesto as a hurricane throughout the 
5-day forecast period.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda on Saturday, with 
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.  Rainfall 
associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda as early as 
Thursday and result in flash flooding across Bermuda later in the 
week and this weekend.
 
2. Heavy rainfall will be diminishing across Puerto Rico into the 
Virgin Islands this evening.  Locally considerable flash flooding 
and mudslides will continue through tonight over the Virgin Islands 
and into portions of Puerto Rico.
 
3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area late this week and into the weekend.  Beach goers should be
aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.  Surf
and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas
during the next few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 21.7N  68.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 23.5N  69.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 25.7N  69.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 27.7N  68.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 29.5N  66.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  17/0600Z 31.3N  65.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 32.9N  65.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 37.0N  64.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 43.4N  58.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory Number 13

, UTC by

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 


000
WTNT35 KNHC 142041
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
 
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 68.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Bermuda.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 68.3 West.  Ernesto is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A turn toward 
the north-northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday.  
A northward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is 
expected Friday and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, 
and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.
 
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations 
of 3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 
inches.  This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening 
flash flooding.

Rainfall is expected to diminish this evening across Puerto Rico and 
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.  Total rainfall amounts from 
Ernesto are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range, with maximum 
amounts of 12 inches across southern to eastern Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 
inches across northwestern Puerto Rico, and 4 to 6 inches across the 
U.S and British Virgin Islands.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Hurricane Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm 
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.  These swells
will reach the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and Bermuda and the
rest of the Bahamas on Thursday.  Swells are expected to reach the
east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 13

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 


000
WTNT25 KNHC 142041
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
2100 UTC WED AUG 14 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  68.3W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  68.3W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  68.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.5N  69.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.7N  69.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.7N  68.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N  66.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.3N  65.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.9N  65.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 37.0N  64.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 130SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.4N  58.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 110NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N  68.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory Number 12A

, UTC by

Issued at 200 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 


000
WTNT35 KNHC 141749
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
200 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
 
...FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO 
ONGOING HEAVY RAINS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 68.0W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin 
Islands have been discontinued.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical 
Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.  A
hurricane watch may be required for the island later today.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 68.0 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A turn toward
the north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight,
with a generally northward motion at a slower forward speed
continuing through Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Ernesto will continue to move away from Puerto Rico today, move
across the western Atlantic during the next few days, and approach
Bermuda Friday and Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent dropsonde 
data is 989 mb (29.20 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin
Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals
of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.
 
Rainfall associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda on
Thursday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Gusty winds will continue across Puerto Rico and the Virgin 
Islands through rest of today.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.  These swells will
reach the southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of
the Bahamas on Thursday.  Swells are expected to reach the east
coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 


000
FONT15 KNHC 141454
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024               
1500 UTC WED AUG 14 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  37(38)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  64(72)  11(83)   1(84)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  38(38)  10(48)   1(49)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   8(28)   X(28)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GRAND TURK     34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PONCE PR       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
VIEQUES PR     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT JOHN     34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 12

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 


000
WTNT45 KNHC 141455
TCDAT5
 
Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak
700-mb flight-level wind of 70 kt northeast of Ernesto's center, and
the crew reported a 50 percent eyewall.  In addition, Tail Doppler
radar from the NOAA P-3 aircraft measured winds over 75 kt at an
elevation of 500 meters.  Based on these data, Ernesto is upgraded
to a 65-kt hurricane.
 
Ernesto continues to move northwestward, or 310/14 kt, but is
expected to turn north-northwestward and northward later today and
tonight as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge caused
by a deep-layer trough off the east coast of the United States. This
trough is expected to leave Ernesto behind later this week, which
should cause a reduction in speed on Saturday and Sunday while the
storm is passing Bermuda.  By early next week, a second trough
moving across the eastern United States should cause Ernesto to
accelerate toward the north and north-northeast over the waters
south of Atlantic Canada.  The track guidance is in good agreement
during the first 48 hours, and the official forecast was only
shifted slightly westward to account for Ernesto's recent motion.
After 48 hours, there is more divergence in the track models, with
the GFS on the eastern edge of the envelope while the ECMWF shows
less turning and is on the western edge of the envelope.  The NHC
forecast has been nudged westward during this period and is very
close to the dynamical hurricane models.
 
Although Ernesto is moving over very warm waters, the hurricane
might have to deal with bouts of increased shear and nearby dry
air during the next several days.  That said, the intensity
guidance shows continued gradual strengthening, and the official
forecast still reflects the possibility of Ernesto becoming a major
hurricane in about 48 hours.  Much of the intensity guidance has
come down on the peak intensity this cycle, but for now we'll
maintain continuity and wait to see if this trend continues.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall will result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides today over the Virgin Islands and into portions of
Puerto Rico.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to
continue over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
through today.
 
3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week, and
interests there should monitor the progress of this system.  A
Hurricane Watch may be required later today.
 
4. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area late this week and into the weekend.  Beach goers should be
aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.  Surf
and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas
during the next few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 20.5N  67.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 22.3N  68.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 24.5N  69.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 26.6N  68.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 28.5N  67.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  17/0000Z 30.4N  66.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 32.0N  65.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 36.0N  65.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 42.6N  61.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory Number 12

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 


000
WTNT35 KNHC 141454
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
 
...ERNESTO BECOMES A HURRICANE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AS HEAVY RAINS PERSIST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 67.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.  A
hurricane watch may be required for the island later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 67.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A turn toward
the north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight,
with a generally northward motion at a slower forward speed
continuing through Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Ernesto will continue to move away from Puerto Rico today, move
across the western Atlantic during the next few days, and approach
Bermuda Friday and Saturday.
 
Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph
(120 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin
Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals
of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.
 
Rainfall associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda on
Thursday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, will continue
across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through
the day.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.  These swells will
reach the southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of
the Bahamas on Thursday.  Swells are expected to reach the east
coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 12

, UTC by

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 


394 
WTNT25 KNHC 141505
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
1500 UTC WED AUG 14 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  67.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......130NE 200SE   0SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE  75SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  67.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  67.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.3N  68.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE  40SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.5N  69.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.6N  68.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N  67.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.4N  66.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N  65.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 36.0N  65.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 42.6N  61.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N  67.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 11A

, UTC by

Issued at 800 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 


000
WTNT35 KNHC 141152
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
800 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
 
...FLOODING RAINS FROM ERNESTO CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 67.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the British Virgin 
Islands.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 67.2 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A turn toward
the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward
speed is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto will move northward away from Puerto Rico through
today. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in
the week and be nearing Bermuda on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later today and 
could become a major hurricane in a couple of days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 
991 mb (29.26 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall
totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are
expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4
inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight
hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch
area during the next few hours.
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding remains possible in areas of
onshore winds along the eastern coast of Puerto Rico, including the
islands of Culebra and Vieques, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands,
including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic. These swells will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas
on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the
United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 


000
FONT15 KNHC 140851
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024               
0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
ST JOHN NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  63(65)  19(84)   2(86)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  32(32)  19(51)   2(53)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  14(30)   2(32)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GRAND TURK     34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PONCE PR       34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
VIEQUES PR     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAINT JOHN     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAINT CROIX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 11

, UTC by

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 


000
WTNT45 KNHC 140853
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
 
Ernesto continues to gradually become better organized on satellite 
imagery and WSR 88-D radar data.  Very intense convection has 
developed near the center of the storm as well as in a strong band 
to the south across Puerto Rico.  Earlier Culebra reported 
sustained winds of 59 kt and that was the basis for the 60 kt 
estimate at 6Z.  While it is possible Ernesto is already a 
hurricane, radar data does not yet support an upgrade, so 60 kt 
remains the initial intensity. Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft are 
scheduled to be in the system later this morning.
 
The storm is moving northwestward at about 14 kt.  Ernesto is 
expected to turn north-northwestward later today and then move to 
the north or north-northeast for the next several days while it 
moves through a break in the subtropical ridge and interacts with a 
mid-latitude trough.  There are no notable changes to the NHC track 
forecast, with Ernesto forecast to stay offshore of the CONUS and 
make its closest approach to Bermuda on Saturday.
 
Radar data still suggests that Ernesto isn't fully vertically
aligned, with multiple attempts at eye formation failing, probably
due to dry air intrusions.  The large-scale conditions still appear
to be conducive for strengthening as the shear remains fairly low
and any residual dry air gradually mixes out of the core.  The bulk 
of the intensity guidance still shows Ernesto becoming a major 
hurricane over the western Atlantic in a couple of days, and the 
global models also depict a large and powerful hurricane.  Little 
change was made to the previous forecast, which remains near the 
model consensus.
 
It should be noted that all of the models are showing Ernesto
becoming quite a bit larger, which should send powerful swells
toward the land area across the western Atlantic.  Even if Ernesto
stays well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, beach goers should be 
aware of a significant risk of deadly rip currents beginning later 
this week.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques during the next
several hours.
 
2. Heavy rainfall will result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides today over the Virgin Islands and into portions of
Puerto Rico.
 
3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week,
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
 
4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks
and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and then reach
the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 19.5N  66.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 21.1N  67.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 23.6N  68.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 25.7N  68.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 27.6N  67.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  16/1800Z 29.5N  66.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 31.4N  65.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 35.0N  65.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 40.5N  62.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024               
0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
ST JOHN NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  63(65)  19(84)   2(86)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  32(32)  19(51)   2(53)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  14(30)   2(32)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GRAND TURK     34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PONCE PR       34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
VIEQUES PR     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAINT JOHN     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAINT CROIX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
NNNN

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 11

, UTC by

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 


356 
WTNT25 KNHC 140850
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  66.6W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 145SE  60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  66.6W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  66.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.1N  67.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  40SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.6N  68.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.7N  68.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.6N  67.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N  66.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.4N  65.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 35.0N  65.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 130NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 40.5N  62.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 150SW 110NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N  66.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 11

, UTC by

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 


000
WTNT35 KNHC 140851
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
 
...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM
ERNESTO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 66.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Vieques and Culebra.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case through the morning hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 66.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A turn toward
the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward
speed is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto will pass to the north of Puerto Rico through
today. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in
the week and be nearing Bermuda on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later this
morning and could become a major hurricane in a couple of days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) 
from the center. A metar station at the Roosevelt Roads Naval 
Station (TJNR) recently reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (78 
km/h) and a gust of 74 mph (119 km/h).  A NOAA Saildrone located 
about 65 miles north- northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, recently 
reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph 
(122 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall
totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are
expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4
inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Virgin 
Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight 
hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch 
area during the next few hours.
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding remains possible in areas of
onshore winds along the eastern coast of Puerto Rico, including the
islands of Culebra and Vieques, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands,
including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic. These swells will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas
on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the
United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 10A

, UTC by

Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 


016 
WTNT35 KNHC 140549
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
200 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FROM ERNESTO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER 
PUERTO RICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 66.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...25 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Vieques and Culebra
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case through the early morning.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located by San Juan radar near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 66.0 
West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (25 km/h). 
A turn toward the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease 
in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday. On the 
forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass to the north of 
Puerto Rico through today. Ernesto should then move over the
western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on Friday
and Friday night.
 
Surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have 
increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening 
is forecast during the next several days, and Ernesto is expected 
to become a hurricane later this morning and could become a major 
hurricane in a couple of days. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. A WeatherFlow station (XCUL) on Culebra recently
reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a gust of 86 mph
(139 km/h).  A NOAA Saildrone located about 70 miles north- 
northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, recently reported a sustained 
wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall
totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are
expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4
inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the
overnight hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of
the watch area during the next few hours.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.
 
A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican 
Republic. These swells will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands and 
southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas 
on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the 
United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 


945 
FONT15 KNHC 140246
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024               
0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)  40(77)   5(82)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  34(44)   4(48)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  20(25)   3(28)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GRAND TURK     34  1   5( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   1(12)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  1   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PONCE PR       34  4   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  5   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
VIEQUES PR     34 27   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT THOMAS   50  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT JOHN     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT JOHN     50 34   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
SAINT CROIX    34 11   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SABA           34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 10

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 


733 
WTNT45 KNHC 140247
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

Aircraft data, surface observations, and NWS radar images indicate 
Ernesto passed over the Virgin Islands around 00 UTC this evening. 
The tropical cyclone remains asymmetric, as NOAA Tail Doppler Radar 
data show the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall are generally 
confined to the northern and eastern semicircles of the storm. Data 
from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate the central 
pressure of Ernesto has fallen to around 998-999 mb, and an earlier 
aircraft pass through the eastern part of the storm found peak 
700-mb flight-level winds of 60 kt. Based on these data, the initial 
intensity is set at 55 kt, which matches the latest Dvorak current 
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The latest aircraft fixes and radar data show Ernesto has turned 
northwestward (305/15 kt). Overnight, Ernesto will move away from 
the Virgin Islands and pass to the northeast and north of Puerto 
Rico. Then, Ernesto is expected to move northwestward to northward 
during the next couple of days toward a break in the subtropical 
ridge. By late week, the influence of a deep-layer trough over the 
western Atlantic should cause Ernesto to turn north-northeastward, 
although the cyclone is forecast to slow down a bit after the trough 
passes to its north. There are no notable changes to the NHC track 
forecast, with Ernesto forecast to make its closest approach to 
Bermuda Friday night into Saturday. 

The radar structure of Ernesto indicates it has not yet solidified 
an inner core. However, once this occurs, the atmospheric and 
oceanic conditions appear conducive for significant strengthening 
over the next few days. Most of the hurricane regional models and 
statistical guidance show Ernesto becoming a major hurricane over 
the western Atlantic late this week, and the global models 
(particularly the GFS) show significant deepening of the low. Based 
on the latest guidance trends, the NHC intensity forecast has been 
raised slightly during the middle portion of the forecast period and 
now shows Ernesto becoming a major hurricane on Friday.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the 
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early Wednesday, with 
hurricane conditions possible on the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and 
Vieques.
 
2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding 
and mudslides over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto 
Rico tonight through Wednesday.
 
3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week,
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
 
4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of 
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks 
and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and then reach 
the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and 
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening 
surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 18.8N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 20.3N  66.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 22.4N  68.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 24.4N  68.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 26.3N  68.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 28.1N  67.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 29.9N  66.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 34.0N  64.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 38.0N  63.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 10

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 


358 
WTNT25 KNHC 140245
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  65.3W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  65.3W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  64.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.3N  66.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  40SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.4N  68.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.4N  68.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.3N  68.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  50SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.1N  67.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.9N  66.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N  64.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 38.0N  63.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N  65.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 10

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 


566 
WTNT35 KNHC 140245
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024
 
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 65.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Vieques and Culebra
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case through tonight.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was 
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 65.3 West. Ernesto is 
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the 
north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed 
is expected on Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, 
the center of Ernesto will pass to the northeast and north of Puerto 
Rico through early Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the 
western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on Friday 
and Friday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and 
Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday to the 
north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. Henry E. Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix recently 
reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust of 58 mph 
(93 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall
totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are
expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4
inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the
overnight hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of
the watch area during the next several hours.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.
 
A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells
will reach the Dominican Republic overnight, the Turks and Caicos
Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the
rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the
east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart