5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 11 Aug 2024 23:35:51 GMT
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Archives for August 11, 2024
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Public Advisory Number 1A
Issued at 800 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024
000 WTNT35 KNHC 112335 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024 ...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 49.1W ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Martin * Sint Maarten A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches could be required later tonight or early Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 49.1 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by late Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the northern Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands... 1 to 2 inches Southern Leeward Islands... 2 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola... 2 to 4 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 11 Aug 2024 20:52:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 11 Aug 2024 20:52:33 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 11 2024
000
FONT15 KNHC 112049
PWSAT5
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC SUN AUG 11 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 7(31) X(31)
PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 11(34) X(34)
AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9)
AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) 1(24)
SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 5(43) X(43)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) 1(13)
VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 4(50) X(50)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 3(41) X(41)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 31(45) 1(46) X(46)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 28(45) 1(46) X(46)
SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12)
SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 24(45) X(45) X(45)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11)
ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 19(43) 1(44) X(44)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 9(37) 1(38) X(38)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024
000 WTNT45 KNHC 112049 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024 NHC has been monitoring the a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic during the past several days. Satellite images and earlier ASCAT data indicate that the low has a broad circulation, but there is no evidence of a well-defined center yet. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization, but visible satellite imagery suggests that dry air is entraining into the circulation. However, since the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm in the next day or so, and there is a risk of tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Leeward Islands during that time, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating this system on Monday. The estimated motion of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is 285/18-kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on a fast west-northwestward motion through the next 36-48 h. This motion should bring the system near or over the Leeward Islands on Tuesday. Thereafter, a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. East Coast should approach this system, inducing a turn to the northwest by Wednesday and to the north thereafter. This should bring the system in the general vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday night, then emerging into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Users should keep in mind that the track forecasts for potential tropical cyclones are inherently more uncertain than normal since the system lacks a well–defined center. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently located in an environment of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Over the next day or two, the wind shear is forecast to decrease some while the disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable environment. Given the current organizational state of the convection and low-level wind structure, the system likely needs at least one more day before it can organize into a tropical cyclone. Around the time the system reaches the Leeward Islands, it will be moving into an increasingly conducive environment for strengthening. Therefore, once the system is able to develop an inner core it should have an opportunity to strengthen at a faster rate. The favorable environment will likely continue in the 3 to 5-day time frame, and this system is forecast to be a strengthening hurricane when it is moving northward over the western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly below the intensity consensus in the short term, but falls in line with the consensus aids beyond a couple of days. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for portions of the area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday. 3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight or early Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 11 2024
050 WTNT25 KNHC 112048 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 11 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 48.0W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 48.0W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 47.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 48.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 12/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024
000 WTNT35 KNHC 112049 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 48.0W ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Guadeloupe and St. Martin. The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Sint Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Martin * Sint Maarten A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches could be required tonight or early Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 48.0 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by late Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the northern Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands… 1 to 2 inches Southern Leeward Islands… 2 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi