5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 23:47:53 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 21:23:57 GMT
Archives for August 7, 2024
Tropical Storm Debby Public Advisory Number 22A
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 072347 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...CENTER OF DEBBY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 79.4W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 79.4 West. Debby is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). This motion is expected to continue tonight, bringing the center across the South Carolina coast late tonight or on Thursday morning. After landfall, a faster motion toward the north and north-northeast across the Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states is expected on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible tonight before the center of Debby reaches the coast of South Carolina. Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) mainly to the east if the center. A Coastal Ocean Research and Monitoring Program buoy near Sunset Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina today through Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 25 inches in eastern South Carolina and 15 inches in southeast North Carolina with considerable flooding expected across portions of South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions. From the piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight. The risk of tornadoes will shift northward on Thursday into central North Carolina and central Virginia. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Debby Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024
968
FONT14 KNHC 072045
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DANVILLE VA 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GREENSBORO NC 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
RALEIGH NC 34 2 5( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
ROCKY MT NC 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 15 22(37) 4(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CHERRY PT NC 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NEW RIVER NC 34 19 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 22 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
SURF CITY NC 34 44 5(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
WILMINGTON NC 34 48 6(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FLORENCE SC 34 29 26(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
FLORENCE SC 50 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
COLUMBIA SC 34 4 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
LITTLE RIVER 34 79 9(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
LITTLE RIVER 50 4 10(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 85 8(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 12 15(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 85 7(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 13 22(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
CHARLESTON SC 34 69 10(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
CHARLESTON SC 50 28 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 44 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
SAVANNAH GA 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KINGS BAY GA 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion Number 22
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
994 WTNT44 KNHC 072046 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Debby is producing small, broken bands of convection around its center this afternoon. The storm continues to meander around NOAA buoy 41004, and data from that station indicate the central pressure remains around 995 mb. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported peak SFMR winds of 47 kt within convection to the northeast of the center during their last pass through the storm a few hours ago. Based on these data and the earlier flight-level winds, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt. Although the storm is moving over warm waters, it lacks an inner core and has a large radius of maximum wind. Therefore, only modest strengthening is forecast during the next 12 h while the system approaches South Carolina, in best agreement with some of the statistical guidance. Once inland, Debby is expected to quickly lose tropical characteristics and weaken. The interaction of Debby with the upper trough will lead to a baroclinic transition as the low merges with a frontal zone and becomes extratropical. The NHC forecast shows this occurring by Friday. However, it is important to note that these changes do not diminish the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and northeastern United States during the next few days. The long-term motion of Debby is a north-northeastward drift within weak steering currents between two subtropical high pressure areas. However, more recent fixes suggest the system may be turning northward as expected, with a ridge beginning to build to the east of Debby over the western Atlantic. Thus, a north-northwestward to northward motion is expected through tonight while Debby approaches the coast of South Carolina. After landfall, Debby will become caught in southerly to southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes region. This will cause the storm to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward on Friday and into the weekend. With the guidance in good agreement on this scenario, little change was made to the updated NHC track forecast. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to persist through Thursday along with areas of considerable flooding. Expected heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast through Saturday morning. 2. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coast through Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area. 3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely along portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 32.5N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 33.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 08/1800Z 34.3N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0600Z 36.2N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 09/1800Z 39.8N 77.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/0600Z 44.3N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z 48.8N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z 53.0N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Debby Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 20:48:50 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 20:48:50 GMT
Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Advisory Number 22
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024
958 WTNT24 KNHC 072044 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 79.1W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 160SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 79.1W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 79.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 33.1N 79.4W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.3N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.2N 79.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 39.8N 77.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 44.3N 73.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 48.8N 67.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 53.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 79.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Debby Public Advisory Number 22
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
997 WTNT34 KNHC 072045 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...DEBBY SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 79.1W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 79.1 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, bringing the center across the South Carolina coast on Thursday morning. After landfall, a faster motion toward the north and north-northeast across the Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states is expected on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible tonight before the center of Debby reaches the coast of South Carolina. Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals recently reported a wind gust of 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA buoy data is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina today through Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 25 inches in eastern South Carolina and 15 inches in southeast North Carolina with considerable flooding expected across portions of South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions. From the piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight. The risk of tornadoes will shift northward on Thursday into central North Carolina and central Virginia. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Debby Public Advisory Number 21A
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 071746 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...DEBBY STILL MOVING SLOWLY... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 79.1W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch from north of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 79.1 West. Debby has been drifting northeastward near 3 mph (6 km/h). A generally northward motion is expected later today, bringing the center to the South Carolina coast on Thursday morning. After crossing the coast, a faster motion toward the north and north-northeast across the Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states is expected on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today or tonight before the center of Debby reaches the coast of South Carolina. Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina today and continuing through Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 25 inches in South Carolina and 15 inches in southeast North Carolina, broadening the area of considerable flooding across portions of South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions. From the Piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Advisory Number 21
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 07 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 071454 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 1500 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 79.2W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 160SE 100SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 79.2W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.9N 79.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.8N 79.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.2N 79.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.0N 79.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.0N 76.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 46.5N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 52.5N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 54.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 79.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Debby Public Advisory Number 21
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 071455 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...DEBBY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 79.2W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch from north of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 79.2 West. Debby is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) A generally northward motion is expected later today, bringing the center to the South Carolina coast by tonight or early Thursday. A faster motion toward the north and north-northeast across the Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states is expected on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today or tonight before the center of Debby reaches the coast of South Carolina. Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina today and continuing through Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 25 inches in South Carolina and 15 inches in southeast North Carolina, broadening the area of considerable flooding across portions of South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions. From the Piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion Number 21
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 071455 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate surface winds to near 50 kt in an area located over 100 n mi southeast of the center. Most of Debby's deep convection is occurring in bands well to the northeast and southeast of the center, with limited shower and thunderstorm activity near/over the center. The advisory intensity is increased to 50 kt based on the aircraft data. The cyclone has been moving slowly northeastward and the initial motion estimate is 040/4 kt. Debby is currently situated between two subtropical high pressure centers and remains within relatively weak steering currents. Later today and tonight, the ridge to the east of Debby should build slightly and cause the system to move generally northward and make landfall in 12 to 24 hours. The steering flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes is likely to cause Debby to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward over the eastern U.S. during the next few days. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is in good agreement with the corrected consensus guidance. Given that the strongest winds are occurring well to southeast of the center, Debby lacks a well-defined inner core, which indicates that significant re-intensification is not likely. However, since the system lies over warm water this could allow for some limited strengthening before landfall and this is reflected in the official forecast. The official forecast remains at the high end of the model intensity guidance. Debby should merge with a frontal zone and become an extratropical cyclone over the northeastern U.S. in a couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to persist through Thursday along with areas of considerable flooding. Expected heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast through Saturday morning. 2. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coast through Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area. 3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely along portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 32.3N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 32.9N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 33.8N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 35.2N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1200Z 38.0N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/0000Z 42.0N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z 46.5N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1200Z 52.5N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1200Z 54.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Debby Public Advisory Number 20A
Issued at 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 071154 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 79.4W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 79.4 West. Debby is moving toward the northeast near 4 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northwest is expected today, bringing the center of Debby to the South Carolina coast by tonight or early Thursday. A faster motion toward the north and north-northeast across the Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region is expected on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today or tonight before the center of Debby reaches the coast of South Carolina. Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A wind gust to 44 mph (70 km/h) was recently reported at Murells Inlet South Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina today and continuing through Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 25 inches in South Carolina and 15 inches in southeast North Carolina, broadening the area of considerable flooding across portions of South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions. From the Piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
Tropical Storm Debby Public Advisory Number 20
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 070844 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...DEBBY LOITERING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 79.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Debby is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). An even slower motion toward the north and north-northwest is expected today, bringing the center of Debby to the South Carolina coast by tonight or early Thursday. A faster motion toward the north and north-northeast across the Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region is expected on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today or tonight before the center of Debby reaches the coast of South Carolina. Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina beginning today and continuing through Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 25 inches in South Carolina and 15 inches in southeast North Carolina, broadening the area of considerable flooding across portions of South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions. From the Piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Advisory Number 20
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024
000 WTNT24 KNHC 070844 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.5W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 100SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.5W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 32.3N 79.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.9N 79.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.1N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.0N 79.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 39.2N 77.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 43.8N 73.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 50.8N 62.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 53.9N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 79.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Debby Public Advisory Number 19A
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
000 WTNT34 KNHC 070537 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...DEBBY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 79.8W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 79.8 West. Debby is moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion toward the east and then north is expected today through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Debby is expected to slowly move away from the coast of Georgia and South Carolina tonight, continue to drift offshore through early Thursday, and then move inland over South Carolina on Thursday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast while the center of Debby remains offshore. Weakening is expected Thursday night and Friday after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) mainly to the southeast and south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina beginning today and continuing through Thursday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central South Carolina to the Upstate of South Carolina, northward into Southwest Virginia, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State into Northern New England, 3 to 6 inches with local amounts to 8 inches, are expected through Saturday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. An additional scattered 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is possible across southeast Georgia through this morning, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions across that vicinity. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal South Carolina and North Carolina through this morning. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Debby Public Advisory Number 19
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024
101 WTNT34 KNHC 070233 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 ...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 80.2W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coast of Georgia from the mouth of the Savannah River southward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of the mouth of thee Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 80.2 West. Debby is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion toward the east and then north is expected through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Debby is expected to slowly move away from the coast of Georgia and South Carolina tonight, continue to drift offshore through early Thursday, and then move inland over South Carolina on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast while the center of Debby remains offshore. Weakening is expected Thursday night and Friday after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in North Carolina beginning early Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in North Carolina beginning Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central South Carolina to the Upstate of South Carolina, northward into Southwest Virginia, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State into Northern New England, 3 to 6 inches with local amounts to 8 inches, are expected through Saturday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. An additional scattered 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is possible across southeast Georgia through tonight, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions across that vicinity. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal South Carolina and North Carolina through Wednesday morning. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven