5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Nov 2021 20:50:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Nov 2021 20:50:52 GMT
Archives for November 1, 2021
Tropical Storm Wanda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 01 2021
590
FONT11 KNHC 012048
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM WANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
2100 UTC MON NOV 01 2021
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Wanda Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 900 PM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021
637 WTNT31 KNHC 012048 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 900 PM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021 ...WANDA TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 42.2W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 42.2 West. Wanda is moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue through early this evening. A turn toward the northeast is forecast to occur tonight, followed by a turn toward the north by Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening will be possible during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Wanda Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 01 2021
638 WTNT21 KNHC 012048 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021 2100 UTC MON NOV 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 42.2W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 330SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 42.2W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 42.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 34.7N 41.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.0N 40.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.8N 40.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 39.9N 39.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 41.7N 39.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 42.8N 38.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 43.4N 33.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 42.5N 31.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 42.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Wanda Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 900 PM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021
000 WTNT41 KNHC 012049 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 900 PM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021 Wanda is now moving east-northeastward and, as a result, has moved to the east of the upper-level trough axis, while the parent upper-low has detached and pulled out to the north. As a result, Wanda has now made the transition from a subtropical cyclone to a tropical cyclone. This meteorological metamorphosis has been confirmed by ASCAT data from 1200-1300 UTC that showed Wanda now has a small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 30-35 nmi, and that the outer wind field has weakened and also contracted in size. The intensity is being held at 40 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data showing winds of 33-34 kt, and assuming that there is undersampling owing to the relatively large footprint/resolution of the scatterometer instrument. The initial motion estimate is 070/06 kt. A complex steering flow pattern is forecast to evolve across the northern Atlantic during the next several days as a series of troughs and ridges in the mid-latitude westerlies pass over and to the north of Wanda. This will cause Wanda to make a zig-zag track across the north-central Atlantic, moving poleward ahead of the troughs and equatorward ahead of the ridges, resulting in a net eastward propagation toward the western Azores. The latest NHC model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the forecast track through day 3, but then diverge on days 4 and 5, with the GFS and ECMWF taking the cyclone more southward closer to the Azores and the remaining dynamical models lifting out Wanda to the north of the Azores. The new NHC official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and follows a blend of the GFEX (GFS-ECMWF) and TVCA simple-consensus models. Some slight restrengthening will be possible during the next 48 h or so due to a significant decrease in the deep-layer vertical wind shear while Wanda moves over slightly warmer sea-surface temperatures (SST) near 24 deg C. By 96-120 h, Wanda is forecast to devolve into a post-tropical cyclone due to the unfavorable combination of sub-20-deg-C SSTs, a significantly drier air mass, and strong southerly wind shear in excess of 30 kt. The new NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous advisory and is basically in the middle of the tightly packed intensity guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 34.2N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 34.7N 41.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 36.0N 40.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 37.8N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 39.9N 39.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 41.7N 39.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 42.8N 38.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 43.4N 33.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 06/1800Z 42.5N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Stewart
Subtropical Storm Wanda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 01 2021
067
FONT11 KNHC 011442
PWSAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
1500 UTC MON NOV 01 2021
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Subtropical Storm Wanda Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Nov 2021 14:46:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Nov 2021 14:46:40 GMT
Subtropical Storm Wanda Public Advisory Number 7
Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021
109 WTNT31 KNHC 011441 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 300 PM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021 ...WANDA WANDERING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WEST OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 43.0W ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 43.0 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion should continue this morning. A turn toward the northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the north by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight fluctuations in strength are anticipated during the next few days. However, Wanda could still become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Subtropical Storm Wanda Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 01 2021
110 WTNT21 KNHC 011441 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021 1500 UTC MON NOV 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 43.0W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 390SE 330SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 43.0W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 43.3W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 34.1N 42.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 35.0N 41.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 36.8N 40.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 39.0N 40.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 40.8N 39.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 42.3N 39.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 43.6N 34.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 42.9N 31.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 43.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Subtropical Storm Wanda Forecast Discussion Number 7
Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021
000 WTNT41 KNHC 011445 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 300 PM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021 Wanda has been moving southeastward since the previous advisory and has now moved back underneath the axis of the upper-level trough that the cyclone is embedded in. However, strong northwesterly vertical wind shear of 30-35 kt has persisted and has displaced the deep convection into the southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt from TAFB, and 39 kt and 41 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. Although Wanda had been moving southeastward at 10-11 kt as of 1200 UTC, the most recent motion vector appears to be slowly eastward or 090/05 kt. Wanda and the parent upper-level trough should move eastward this late morning and early afternoon, and then turn northeastward by this evening, followed by a northward motion by late Tuesday as southerly steering flow gradually develops between a larger mid-latitude trough to the west and a ridge to the east. By day 3, another mid-latitude ridge is forecast to build between Wanda and the aforementioned larger trough, causing the cyclone to turn eastward and then southward toward the westernmost Azores. The latest NHC track guidance has shifted sharply to the east of the previous forecast track through 72 hours, and the new official track forecast has followed suit. However, the new advisory track lies along the western edge of the guidance through day 3, and then lies in the middle of the track guidance envelope on days 4 and 5. Although Wanda has weakened slightly, some slight restrengthening will be possible in the 24-60-h period when the shear is forecast to decrease sharply down to around 10 kt while the cyclone remains over 23.5-24-deg-C sea-surface temperatures. The weaker shear conditions should also help Wanda transition to a tropical cyclone. By 96 h, however, Wanda is forecast to devolve into a post-tropical low due to the cyclone moving over sub-20-deg-C water temperatures, into a significantly drier air mass, and into strong southerly vertical wind shear -- a detrimental combination that should cause the convection to erode near the center. The new NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 34.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 34.1N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 35.0N 41.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 03/0000Z 36.8N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 39.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 40.8N 39.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 42.3N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 43.6N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 06/1200Z 42.9N 31.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Stewart
Subtropical Storm Wanda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 01 2021
000
FONT11 KNHC 010926 CCA
PWSAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0900 UTC MON NOV 01 2021
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Subtropical Storm Wanda Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021
000 WTNT41 KNHC 010927 CCA TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 6...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 900 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021 Corrected initial position Wanda is now located to the west of the axis of the upper-level trough that it is embedded in. As a result, significant northerly vertical wind shear has developed over the storm, and between this and continuing dry air entrainment the associated convection is less organized than 24 h ago. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 40-50 kt range, and based on continuity from earlier ASCAT data the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. After the earlier southwestward motion, Wanda is now turning southeastward with the initial motion of 125/6. The storm and the upper-level trough should move northeastward later today and then northward by 36-48 h as southerly flow between a large mid-latitude trough over the northwestern Atlantic and a ridge east of Wanda becomes the dominant steering mechanism. After 72 h, another mid-latitude ridge is expected to build between Wanda and the western Atlantic trough, and as a result the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and then southward. The latest track guidance shows a more northward motion than the previous guidance between 36-60 h, and a more southward motion after 96 h. The new forecast track has been nudged in those directions. The intensity guidance suggests little change in strength during the next several days as dry air and relatively cool SSTs continue to affect the system. However, the current shear is expected to decrease during the next 24-36 h, and this should help the system to transition to a tropical cyclone. By 120 h, Wanda is expected to become a post-tropical low as cooler sea surface temperatures and an even dryer air mass cause the convection to dissipate. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 34.5N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 34.3N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 34.9N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 02/1800Z 36.2N 41.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 38.2N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 40.1N 40.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 41.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 43.0N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 41.0N 33.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven
Subtropical Storm Wanda Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Nov 2021 09:28:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Nov 2021 09:28:45 GMT
Subtropical Storm Wanda Forecast Advisory Number 6
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 01 2021
000 WTNT21 KNHC 010922 CCA TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021 0900 UTC MON NOV 01 2021 CORRECTED INITIAL POSITION THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 43.9W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 360SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 43.9W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 44.2W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 34.3N 43.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 34.9N 42.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.2N 41.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.2N 40.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 40.1N 40.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 41.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 43.0N 36.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 41.0N 33.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 43.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Subtropical Storm Wanda Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021
000 WTNT31 KNHC 010925 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 6...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 900 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021 Corrected initial position ...WANDA TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 43.9W ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 43.9 West. The storm is moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected by tonight followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. However, Wanda may become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Subtropical Storm Wanda Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Nov 2021 08:47:55 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Nov 2021 08:47:55 GMT
Subtropical Storm Wanda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 01 2021
000
FONT11 KNHC 010846
PWSAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0900 UTC MON NOV 01 2021
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Subtropical Storm Wanda Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021
000 WTNT41 KNHC 010846 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 900 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021 Wanda is now located to the west of the axis of the upper-level trough that it is embedded in. As a result, significant northerly vertical wind shear has developed over the storm, and between this and continuing dry air entrainment the associated convection is less organized than 24 h ago. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 40-50 kt range, and based on continuity from earlier ASCAT data the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. After the earlier southwestward motion, Wanda is now turning southeastward with the initial motion of 125/6. The storm and the upper-level trough should move northeastward later today and then northward by 36-48 h as southerly flow between a large mid-latitude trough over the northwestern Atlantic and a ridge east of Wanda becomes the dominant steering mechanism. After 72 h, another mid-latitude ridge is expected to build between Wanda and the western Atlantic trough, and as a result the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and then southward. The latest track guidance shows a more northward motion than the previous guidance between 36-60 h, and a more southward motion after 96 h. The new forecast track has been nudged in those directions. The intensity guidance suggests little change in strength during the next several days as dry air and relatively cool SSTs continue to affect the system. However, the current shear is expected to decrease during the next 24-36 h, and this should help the system to transition to a tropical cyclone. By 120 h, Wanda is expected to become a post-tropical low as cooler sea surface temperatures and an even dryer air mass cause the convection to dissipate. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 34.5N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 34.3N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 34.9N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 02/1800Z 36.2N 41.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 38.2N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 40.1N 40.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 41.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 43.0N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 41.0N 33.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven
Subtropical Storm Wanda Forecast Advisory Number 6
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 01 2021
000 WTNT21 KNHC 010845 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021 0900 UTC MON NOV 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 39.9W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 360SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 39.9W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 44.2W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 34.3N 43.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 34.9N 42.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.2N 41.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.2N 40.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 40.1N 40.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 41.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 43.0N 36.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 41.0N 33.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 39.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Subtropical Storm Wanda Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021
000 WTNT31 KNHC 010846 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 900 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021 ...WANDA TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 39.9W ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 39.9 West. The storm is moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northeast east is expected by tonight followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. However, Wanda may become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Subtropical Storm Wanda Forecast Discussion Number 5
Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021
000 WTNT41 KNHC 010236 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 300 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021 Dry air continues to wrap into the circulation of Wanda, and consequently, the system is only producing small fragmented bands of deep convection. An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds of about 45 kt in the northwestern quadrant of the storm, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. This intensity estimate is also in line with the satellite classification from TAFB. After moving east-southeastward for much of the day, Wanda has abruptly turned southwestward with the latest initial motion estimated to be 215/7 kt. This erratic motion is related to the upper-level low that Wanda is co-located with. The storm is likely to turn back toward the east-southeast or east on Monday and then track to the northeast on Tuesday as the storm moves in the flow between the associated trough and a building ridge to its east. By Thursday and Friday, however, the models show another ridge building to the north and west of Wanda, and that should slow its northward progress and will likely cause the storm to turn eastward or southeastward again by the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward at days 4 and 5, trending toward the latest models. Wanda is likely to remain fairly steady in strength during the next several days as dry air and relatively cool SSTs continue to affect the system. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one. Even though the storm's intensity is not expected to change much, it will likely transition to a tropical cyclone during the next day or so as it continues to separate from the nearby fronts and upper low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 35.6N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 35.1N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 35.1N 42.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 02/1200Z 36.0N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 37.4N 40.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 39.2N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 40.9N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 43.1N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 43.0N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Subtropical Storm Wanda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 01 2021
000
FONT11 KNHC 010236
PWSAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021
0300 UTC MON NOV 01 2021
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Subtropical Storm Wanda Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Nov 2021 02:37:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Nov 2021 02:37:21 GMT
Subtropical Storm Wanda Public Advisory Number 5
Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021
000 WTNT31 KNHC 010235 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Wanda Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021 300 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021 ...WANDA HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES ERRATICALLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 44.1W ABOUT 960 MI...1540 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 44.1 West. The storm is moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn back to the east-southeast or east is expected on Monday, followed by a turn to the north or northeast on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Subtropical Storm Wanda Forecast Advisory Number 5
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 01 2021
000 WTNT21 KNHC 010235 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212021 0300 UTC MON NOV 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 44.1W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 480SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 44.1W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 43.8W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.1N 43.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 35.1N 42.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 36.0N 41.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 37.4N 40.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 39.2N 40.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 40.9N 39.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 43.1N 37.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 43.0N 33.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 44.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI