5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2023 20:58:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2023 20:58:22 GMT
Archives for September 15, 2023
Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 42
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
122 WTNT23 KNHC 152048 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 66.7W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 50 KT.......160NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. 34 KT.......270NE 270SE 240SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..440NE 480SE 580SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 66.7W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 66.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 50 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. 34 KT...280NE 280SE 220SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.5N 66.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 250SE 220SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 130SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 49.0N 60.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 51.7N 54.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 53.9N 47.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 66.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 152032 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.2W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.2W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 135.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.0N 137.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.8N 138.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.7N 140.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 141.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 136.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 152033 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023 The tropical disturbance that we've been watching for a few days had a burst of vigorous deep convection overnight. Overnight microwave passes and satellite imagery over the last 24 hours have shown increased organization at times in the convective banding. The deep convection now appears to be persistent and organized enough to classify this system as a tropical depression. A blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CPHC suggest initiating advisories for this system with an intensity of 25 kt. More recently, visible satellite imagery is showing the low level center has emerged from the higher clouds associated with the convection. UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that Tropical Depression 12E is embedded within the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerly shear, associated with the subtropical jet stream to the north. The depression is not likely to last long, as global models indicate the subtropical jet will sag south a bit over the next couple of days, maintaining westerly shear over the system. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggests that occasional pulses of deep convection may continue for a day or so as the system is steered toward the west-southwest by the trade wind flow to the south of a strengthening subtropical ridge. The track forecast most closely follows the TVCN until the system becomes a remnant low far to the east-southeast of Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 15.1N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.0N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 14.8N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 14.7N 140.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 14.5N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster R Ballard
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 152037 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORMS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 136.2W ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1485 MI...2390 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 136.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so, but the depression is expected to dissipate as a remnant low within a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster R Ballard
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 152037
PWSEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
000 WTNT25 KNHC 152036 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 44.0W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 44.0W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 43.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.7N 45.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.5N 46.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.4N 48.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.0N 50.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.6N 51.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 25.1N 53.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 28.0N 57.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 32.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 44.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 2
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023
000 WTNT35 KNHC 152036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023 500 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 44.0W ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 44.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, but a faster rate of intensification is predicted later this weekend and early next week. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday and could become a hurricane late this weekend or early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Margot Forecast Advisory Number 34
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
000 WTNT24 KNHC 152040 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 37.9W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......260NE 140SE 100SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..380NE 220SE 260SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 37.9W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 37.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 35.5N 38.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 130SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.8N 39.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.6N 41.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.2N 42.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.2N 42.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 37.9N 41.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 39.2N 36.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 39.0N 31.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 37.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Storm Margot Forecast Discussion Number 34
Issued at 900 PM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023
000 WTNT44 KNHC 152041 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 900 PM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023 Margot has changed little in appearance since the last advisory. Visible imagery still shows a broad and robust low-level circulation with occasional bursts of convection near the center. A couple microwave passes over the past few hours showed some fragmented curved bands in the northeast quadrant. Given little change in appearance, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt, closest to the TAFB Dvorak estimate. The tropical storm is still drifting southeastward at 4 kt. Margot is on the southeast side of a building mid-level ridge and expected to complete a clockwise turn by Sunday. Early next week, the storm should begin a northward motion followed by a turn to the east. By days 4 and 5 there is more uncertainty in the track forecast. The model guidance has shifted south and trended slower than the previous NHC track forecast. The biggest changes in the track forecast for this advisory show a noticeable shift to the south and a decrease in forward motion late in the forecast period. Environmental conditions are relatively hostile and should cause a continued weakening trend. Still, marginal sea surface temperatures could lead to periodic flares of convection. Therefore, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening associated with the expected spin down. Margot is still expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 36.0N 37.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 35.5N 38.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 34.8N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 34.6N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 35.2N 42.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 36.2N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 37.9N 41.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 39.2N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 39.0N 31.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 43.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 43.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 43.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 44.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.2N 46.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.9N 47.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 49.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 51.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.4N 52.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 26.0N 56.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 43.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CHURCHILL/BLAKE/LAMERS NNNN
Tropical Storm Margot Public Advisory Number 33
Issued at 300 PM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023
113 WTNT34 KNHC 151453 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 300 PM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023 ...MARGOT'S TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPAND NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.3N 38.2W ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 38.2 West. Margot is moving toward the southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next day or two. A faster northeastward motion is forecast by Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles (480 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 41
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
000 WTNT23 KNHC 151443 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 66.9W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 50 KT.......160NE 170SE 110SW 150NW. 34 KT.......280NE 280SE 200SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..440NE 480SE 500SW 410NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 66.9W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 67.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 38.5N 66.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 50 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. 34 KT...280NE 280SE 220SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.8N 66.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 250SE 220SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.1N 65.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 215SE 135SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 47.8N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 200SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 50.8N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 53.4N 51.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 66.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
000 WTNT25 KNHC 151453 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 43.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 43.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 43.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 44.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.2N 46.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.9N 47.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 49.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 51.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.4N 52.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 26.0N 56.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 43.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CHURCHILL/BLAKE/LAMERS
Tropical Storm Margot Forecast Advisory Number 33
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
000 WTNT24 KNHC 151453 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 38.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......260NE 140SE 100SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 260SE 280SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 38.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 38.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.8N 38.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 130SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.1N 39.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.6N 40.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.8N 42.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.6N 43.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 37.0N 42.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 39.5N 38.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 39.6N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 38.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 40A
Issued at 800 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023
000 WTNT33 KNHC 151144 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 800 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023 ...LEE REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.1N 67.0W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Petit Manan Point, Maine to the U.S./Canada border * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda * Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 67.0 West. Lee is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a northward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will continue to move farther away from Bermuda this morning and approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada today and Saturday. Lee is then expected to turn toward the north-northeast and northeast and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Lee is forecast to become post-tropical and begin weakening by Saturday, but it is still expected to be a large and dangerous storm when it reaches eastern New England and Atlantic Canada. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through the morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern New England late this afternoon and spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area in Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. These conditions are likely to lead to downed trees and potential power outages. SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From tonight through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and small stream flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft Long Island Sound...1-3 ft Cape Cod...1-3 ft Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft Boston Harbor...1-3 ft Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 40
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
000 WTNT23 KNHC 150852 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 67.5W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 50 KT.......160NE 170SE 110SW 150NW. 34 KT.......280NE 280SE 200SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 420SE 420SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 67.5W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 67.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.8N 67.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 50 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. 34 KT...280NE 280SE 220SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.3N 66.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 130NW. 34 KT...270NE 250SE 220SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.4N 66.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 180SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 46.3N 64.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 200SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 49.3N 61.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 52.2N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...160NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 67.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 15/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 40
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023
000 WTNT33 KNHC 150853 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023 ...LEE ACCELERATING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 67.5W ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM NW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the coast of Maine west of Petit Manan Point. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Petit Manan Point, Maine to the U.S./Canada border * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda * Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 67.5 West. Lee is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a northward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will continue to move farther away from Bermuda this morning and approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada today and Saturday. Lee is then expected to turn toward the north-northeast and northeast and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Lee is forecast to become post-tropical and begin weakening by Saturday, but it is still expected to be a large and dangerous storm when it reaches eastern New England and Atlantic Canada. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through the morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern New England late this afternoon and spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area in Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. These conditions are likely to lead to downed trees and potential power outages. SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From tonight through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and small stream flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft Long Island Sound...1-3 ft Cape Cod...1-3 ft Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft Boston Harbor...1-3 ft Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Margot Forecast Advisory Number 32
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
000 WTNT24 KNHC 150853 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 38.6W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT.......180NE 190SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 38.6W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 38.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.3N 38.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 35.7N 38.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.1N 40.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.8N 41.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.3N 43.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.5N 43.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 39.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 40.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 38.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Margot Public Advisory Number 32
Issued at 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023
000 WTNT34 KNHC 150853 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023 ...MARGOT NOW A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.7N 38.6W ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 38.6 West. Margot is drifting toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and it is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next day or two. Then, a faster northeastward motion is forecast by Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Margot Forecast Discussion Number 32
Issued at 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023
000 WTNT44 KNHC 150854 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023 Margot is producing small, intermittent bursts of convection near its partially exposed low-level center this morning. An ASCAT pass over the western portion of the circulation from last night showed that the winds within the max wind band have decreased by about 10-15 kt from 24 h ago, with peak vectors slightly above 50 kt. These data and the current satellite presentation indicate Margot is likely no longer a hurricane. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this advisory, which remains above the highest available satellite intensity estimates. The tropical storm is drifting east-southeastward (115/3 kt) within weak steering currents, as a mid-level ridge continues to build over the north Atlantic. Margot is forecast to make a clockwise loop while it pivots around this ridge during the next couple of days. The latest NHC forecast shows a slightly broader loop that is consistent with the latest multi-model consensus aids. By early next week, the ridge is forecast to become oriented to the east and south of Margot, and the cyclone should turn northward and then eastward within the flow between this feature and mid-latitude westerlies. There is greater uncertainty in the long-range track forecast given mixed signals in the global guidance as to whether Margot gets fully caught in the westerlies (GFS) or stays farther south and continues to meander over the central Atlantic (ECMWF). For now, the NHC forecast is held near the simple consensus aids. Margot is likely to continue weakening during the next couple of days while it meanders over its own cool wake of sub-26C SSTs in an increasingly dry and stable airmass. By Sunday, it could briefly encounter slightly warmer waters while moving westward, but the upper-level winds do not appear very conducive for much strengthening. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest Margot could struggle at times to sustain enough organized convection to remain a tropical cyclone. While the guidance suite suggests some minor intensity fluctuations are possible during this period, the NHC intensity forecast remains steady between 48-96 h in agreement with the IVCN consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 36.7N 38.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 36.3N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 35.7N 38.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 35.1N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 34.8N 41.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 35.3N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 36.5N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 39.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 40.0N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 39A
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023
000 WTNT33 KNHC 150548 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 39A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 200 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023 ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 67.6W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WNW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda * Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 67.6 West. Lee is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A turn toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will continue to move farther away from Bermuda this morning, approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada today and Saturday, and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through this afternoon. Some gradual weakening is forecast tonight and Saturday, but Lee is expected to remain large and dangerous for the next couple of days. Lee is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). Tropical storm conditions continue on Bermuda, where a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at the L.F. Wade International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern New England this afternoon and spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area in Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft Long Island Sound...1-3 ft Cape Cod...1-3 ft Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft Boston Harbor...1-3 ft Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda through this morning. From tonight through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and small stream flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 39
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
261 WTNT23 KNHC 150244 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 67.6W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 50 KT.......170NE 170SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT.......300NE 300SE 200SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 450SE 420SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 67.6W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 67.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.0N 67.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 50 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 200SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 38.4N 66.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.6N 66.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...250NE 270SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 44.3N 66.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 250SE 180SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 47.0N 63.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 200SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 49.6N 59.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 54.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 67.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 15/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 39
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023
002 WTNT33 KNHC 150249 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 67.6W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM WNW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence, including Grand Manan Island, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda * Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 67.6 West. Lee is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A turn toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will continue to pass west-northwest of Bermuda through tonight, approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday, and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Friday afternoon. Some gradual weakening is forecast Friday night and Saturday, but Lee is expected to remain large and dangerous for the next couple of days. Lee is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported at the L.F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through Friday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern New England on Friday afternoon and spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Atlantic Canada by late Friday into Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft Long Island Sound...1-3 ft Cape Cod...1-3 ft Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft Boston Harbor...1-3 ft Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda overnight and early Friday. From Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and small stream flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Margot Public Advisory Number 31
Issued at 300 AM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023
000 WTNT34 KNHC 150231 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Margot Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 300 AM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023 ...MARGOT CONTINUES TO MEANDER IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.9N 38.9W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Margot was located near latitude 36.9 North, longitude 38.9 West. Margot is moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a continued slow motion is expected while Margot undergoes a clockwise loop the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual to steady weakening is forecast, and Margot should weaken to a tropical storm by Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Hurricane Margot Forecast Advisory Number 31
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
000 WTNT24 KNHC 150231 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 38.9W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 50 KT.......100NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT.......170NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 300SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 38.9W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 39.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 36.7N 38.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 36.1N 38.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.6N 39.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.4N 41.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.5N 42.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 36.5N 43.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 39.2N 41.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 40.1N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.9N 38.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Hurricane Margot Forecast Discussion Number 31
Issued at 300 AM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023
000 WTNT44 KNHC 150231 TCDAT4 Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 300 AM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023 The satellite depiction of Margot has become more ragged this evening. After a brief increase in convection earlier today, recent infrared imagery shows that the convective banding has become more broken as dry air wraps into the system. The system has also crossed over a tongue of cooler SSTs, which is limiting deep convection. With what convection remains the cloud tops have been warming the past few hours. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates were CI 3.5/4.0 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Given the satellite depiction and the current intensity satellite estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt for this advisory. Margot has started to make the forecasted clockwise loop in the central Atlantic, with a current estimated motion of 070/3 kt. A ridge over the north Atlantic is responsible for Margot slowing down and then starting a clockwise loop which will last the next few days. The aforementioned ridge will eventually shift eastward and Margot should then begin to more northeastward towards the end of the forecast period. While the overall track pattern has come into better agreement, there remains along-track speed differences, with the GFS being the fastest and further northeast. No big changes to the track forecast were made from the previous one, with only slight adjustments to trend towards the model consensus aids. Margot is encountering a fairly hostile environment with low mid-level relative humidity values and moderate wind shear. Margot has also crossed a cold tongue of SSTs in the central Atlantic, and given the slow motion it will also cross its own upwelled cooler wake. Given the unfavorable conditions, the system should continue to gradually weaken throughout the period, likely becoming a tropical storm in the next 12-24 h. Margot should become a post-tropical cyclone at some point early next week. However, model simulated satellite still depicts bursts of convection from time to time, and until there is better agreement, the official forecast keeps the post-tropical extratropical transition at Day 5, although this could occur sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 36.9N 38.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 36.7N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 36.1N 38.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 35.6N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 35.4N 41.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 35.5N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 36.5N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 39.2N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 40.1N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kelly
Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 38A
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023
130 WTNT33 KNHC 142354 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 38A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 800 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023 ...LEE CAUSING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 68.0W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM W OF BERMUDA ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda * Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence * Nova Scotia west coast from north of Digby to Fort Lawrence * Nova Scotia southeast coast from north of Medway Harbour to Point Tupper A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of Atlantic Canada tonight. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 68.0 West. Lee is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A turn toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will continue to pass west of Bermuda through this evening, approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday, and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Friday afternoon. Some gradual weakening is forecast Friday night and Saturday, but Lee is expected to remain large and dangerous for the next couple of days. Lee is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). A sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) was recently reported at the L.F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through Friday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the southern New England on Friday afternoon and spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Atlantic Canada by late Friday into Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft Long Island Sound...1-3 ft Cape Cod...1-3 ft Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft Boston Harbor...1-3 ft Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the wind watch areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda tonight into early Friday. Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and small stream flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch