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Archives for September 2023

Tropical Storm Ophelia Public Advisory Number 7A

, UTC by

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 


000
WTNT31 KNHC 230547
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
 
...CENTER OF OPHELIA JUST OFFSHORE NORTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH 
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 77.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North
Carolina
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was 
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 77.1 West.  Ophelia is 
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn 
toward the north is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the 
northeast on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia 
will reach the coast of North Carolina early this morning, and then 
move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the 
Delmarva Peninsula today and Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast before landfall along
the coast of North Carolina.  Weakening is expected after landfall
through the rest of the weekend, and Ophelia is likely to become
extratropical by Saturday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.  NOAA buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals recently
reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph
(97 km/h).  NOAA saildrone 1045 located 70 miles (115 km) 
north-northeast of the center recorded a sustained wind of 49 mph 
(80 km/h) and a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb based on dropsonde 
data from Air Force Hurricane Hunters. (29.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Neuse and Bay Rivers...4-6 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...4-6 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the coast 
of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia within the warning area 
and will continue spreading northward today. Hurricane conditions 
are possible within the watch area early this morning.
 
RAINFALL:  Ophelia is expected to produce the following rainfall:
 
Across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...3
to 5 inches with isolated higher totals around 7 inches into Sunday
morning.
 
Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic...2 to 4 inches
through Sunday.
 
Across southern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches through Monday.
 
This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east
coast of the United States through this weekend.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today for portions of
the mid-Atlantic coast.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023 


000
FONT11 KNHC 230241
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162023               
0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   6( 6)   9(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   6( 6)   9(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  6   8(14)   7(21)   7(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
CAPE HENLOPEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34 11  10(21)   5(26)   6(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  3  17(20)  11(31)   3(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34 17  18(35)   5(40)   3(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X  10(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
RICHMOND VA    34 13  38(51)   6(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  2   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34 59  20(79)   X(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 
NORFOLK VA     34 68  14(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34 75  12(87)   X(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
RALEIGH NC     34 21  12(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34 86   4(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
ROCKY MT NC    50  2  12(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34 37   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CHERRY PT NC   50 12   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW RIVER NC   50  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY  50 10   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SURF CITY NC   50 62   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
SURF CITY NC   64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WILMINGTON NC  50 25   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 66   X(66)   X(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 30   X(30)   X(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023 


000
WTNT21 KNHC 230240
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162023
0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  76.8W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......270NE  80SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 150SE 180SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  76.8W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N  76.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.0N  77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...230NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 36.6N  77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.0N  77.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.0N  76.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N  76.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 23/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Ophelia Public Advisory Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 


000
WTNT31 KNHC 230241
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
...OPHELIA'S CENTER FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY SATURDAY...
...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 76.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North
Carolina
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 76.8 West.  Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn 
toward the north is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward 
the northeast on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Ophelia will reach the coast of North Carolina early Saturday, and 
then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and 
the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast before landfall along
the coast of North Carolina.  Weakening is expected after landfall
through the rest of the weekend, and Ophelia is likely to become 
extratropical by Saturday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.  NOAA buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals recently 
reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to 71 mph 
(115 km/h).  An observation at Poquoson River Light in Virginia 
reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph 
(87 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Neuse and Bay Rivers...4-6 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...4-6 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the 
coast of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia within the 
warning area and will continue spreading northward through Saturday. 
Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area early 
Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  Ophelia is expected to produce the following rainfall:
 
Across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...3
to 5 inches with isolated higher totals around 7 inches into Sunday
morning.
 
Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic...2 to 4 inches
tonight through Sunday.
 
Across southern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches Saturday into Monday.
 
This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east
coast of the United States through this weekend.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible Saturday for portions of
the mid-Atlantic coast.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 7

, UTC by

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 


000
WTNT41 KNHC 230241
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
Recent WSR-88D radar data from Wilmington and Morehead City, North
Carolina, show convection wrapping around Ophelia's center, which is
also embedded beneath a convective canopy in satellite imagery.
Soon after the previous advisory, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters measured SFMR winds to hurricane force west of the center
within the deep convection, however those winds were not measured
again on their final pass through that area.  Radar imagery and
microwave data from that period showed that a mid-level eye feature
had been forming well to the west of the surface center, but that
feature has since dissipated, suggesting that it--and the
hurricane-force winds--may have been a transient occurrence.
Regardless, the SFMR and flight-level winds were strong enough to
support an intensity of 60 kt, and that remains the estimated
intensity right now.  Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Ophelia in a couple of hours and should
provide a final estimate of the intensity before the storm reaches
land.
 
The current motion is north-northwestward (330 degrees) at 10 kt.
Ophelia is moving around the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge and is therefore expected to turn northward and then
northeastward during the next couple of days.  This track will take
Ophelia's center inland over North Carolina on Saturday, and then
across portions of southeastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula
Saturday night and Sunday.  An additional westward shift was made
to the first 24 hours of the official track forecast, mainly due to
Ophelia's center being tugged westward by the deep convection
earlier this afternoon.
 
Ophelia's center is only expected to be over the warm waters of the
Gulf Stream for another 6 hours or so before moving inland, so the
window for strengthening is beginning to close.  It should be
stressed, however, that there is very little difference if Ophelia
reaches land as a 60-kt tropical storm or a 65-kt hurricane.
Weakening is expected once the center moves inland Saturday
morning, and the intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement
that the winds should drop below tropical storm force between 24
and 36 hours while Ophelia is over southeastern Virginia.  The
system is forecast to become extratropical by 36 hours, although
the latest phase-space diagrams and simulated satellite imagery
suggest this transition could happen as soon as 24 hours.  The
extratropical low is forecast to dissipate by 60 hours near the
Delmarva Peninsula when it becomes absorbed within its associated
frontal zone.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area through Saturday night.  Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area early Saturday.
 
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place.  Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
 
3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce locally
considerable flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of
the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.
 
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 33.6N  76.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 35.0N  77.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/0000Z 36.6N  77.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/1200Z 38.0N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  25/0000Z 39.0N  76.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Ophelia Public Advisory Number 6A

, UTC by

Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 


000
WTNT31 KNHC 222348
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
...OPHELIA PRODUCING WINDS JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE...
...WATER LEVELS RISING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 76.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North
Carolina
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 76.6 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so,
followed by a slight turn toward the north and north-northeast. On
the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach the coast of
North Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina,
southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and
Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall along 
the coast of North Carolina. Weakening is expected after landfall 
through the rest of the weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center.  A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North
Carolina, reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust 
of 70 mph (113 km/h) during the past couple of hours.
 
The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is 
984 mb (29.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Neuse and Bay Rivers...4-6 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...4-6 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the North
Carolina coast within the warning area and will continue spreading
northward through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area early Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  Ophelia is expected to produce the following rainfall:
 
Across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...3
to 5 inches with isolated higher totals around 7 inches into Sunday
morning.
 
Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic...2 to 4 inches
tonight through Sunday.
 
Across southern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches Saturday into Monday.
 
This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east
coast of the United States through this weekend.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible tonight through Saturday
for portions of the mid-Atlantic coast.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 


000
FONT11 KNHC 222058
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162023               
2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   4(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  1   3( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  8   8(16)   4(20)   5(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
CAPE HENLOPEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34 14  11(25)   4(29)   3(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  3  11(14)  10(24)   3(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34 18  15(33)   4(37)   2(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
WALLOPS CDA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  2   6( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  9  30(39)  10(49)   1(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  4   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34 32  33(65)   2(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 
NORFOLK VA     34 38  31(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34 49  19(68)   1(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34 82   8(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
RALEIGH NC     34 22  10(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34 71  15(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
ROCKY MT NC    50  X   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34 36   3(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CHERRY PT NC   50 26  18(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW RIVER NC   50 36   4(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
NEW RIVER NC   64  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY  50 53   5(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  4   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SURF CITY NC   50 57   2(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
SURF CITY NC   64  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WILMINGTON NC  50 13   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL  50 27   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 41   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)
LITTLE RIVER   50  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 29   2(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 


000
WTNT41 KNHC 222058
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
The structure of the cyclone has undergone some noteworthy changes
today. GOES-16 1-min visible imagery, along with data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and earlier scatterometer data, indicate
that the center of the system has become better defined and is no
longer attached to fronts. The satellite presentation has evolved as
well, with the center becoming tucked under an area of deep
convection this afternoon. The radius of maximum wind has contracted
to around 50 to 60 n mi, further supporting its designation as
Tropical Storm Ophelia earlier this afternoon. Aircraft data reveal
that Ophelia has also strengthened, with the minimum pressure down
to 986 mb and reduced flight-level and SFMR winds that support an
initial intensity of 60 kt.
 
Ophelia is moving north-northwestward (345/11 kt) within the flow
between an upper-level trough over the southeastern U.S. and a ridge
over the western Atlantic. This general motion should continue
through Saturday while the center of Ophelia approaches North
Carolina and moves inland within the warning area. Thereafter, a
slight decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north and
north-northeast is forecast through the weekend. There was a slight
westward shift in the near-term track guidance, and the updated NHC
forecast has been nudged in that direction toward the latest
multi-model consensus aids.
 
The intensity forecast is more challenging given the unexpected
strengthening trend observed today. Most of the intensity guidance
shows little change in strength before landfall, although the global
models show additional deepening of the low. However, some
additional strengthening cannot be ruled out as Ophelia traverses
the warm waters of the Gulf Stream on its approach to eastern North
Carolina. While this does not seem like the most likely outcome and
is not explicitly forecast, the increased risk warrants the issuance
of a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the North Carolina coast from
north of Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet. After landfall, the system is
expected to quickly weaken due to the combination of land
interaction, drier air, and strong upper-level winds. Ophelia is
likely to become extratropical again in 36-48 h, with dissipation by
72 h as it becomes absorbed by a frontal boundary over the
mid-Atlantic region.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area today into Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area early Saturday.
 
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place.  Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
 
3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce locally
considerable flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of
the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.
 
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 32.9N  76.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 34.4N  76.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 36.1N  77.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/0600Z 37.6N  77.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  24/1800Z 38.9N  76.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  25/0600Z 39.9N  76.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 


000
WTNT21 KNHC 222057
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N  76.3W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......240NE  60SE  70SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 210SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N  76.3W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N  76.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 34.4N  76.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...180NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.1N  77.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.6N  77.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.9N  76.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 39.9N  76.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N  76.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 23/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Ophelia Public Advisory Number 6

, UTC by

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 


202 
WTNT31 KNHC 222058
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND OPHELIA HAS STRENGTHENED...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 76.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Storm Surge Watch from Bogue Inlet to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina, has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning.
 
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina
from north of Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North
Carolina
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was 
located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 76.3 West. Ophelia is 
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This 
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, 
followed by a slight turn toward the north and north-northeast. On 
the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach the coast of 
North Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, 
southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and 
Sunday.
 
Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before
landfall along the coast of North Carolina. Weakening is expected
after landfall through the rest of the weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center. A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h)
and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).
 
The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 986 mb
(29.12 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Neuse and Bay Rivers...4-6 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...4-6 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the North
Carolina coast within the warning area and will continue spreading
northward through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area early Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  Ophelia is expected to produce the following rainfall:
 
Across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...3
to 5 inches with isolated higher totals around 7 inches into Sunday
morning.
 
Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic...2 to 4 inches
tonight through Sunday.
 
Across southern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches Saturday into Monday.
 
This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east
coast of the United States through this weekend.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible tonight through Saturday
for portions of the mid-Atlantic coast.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Storm Ophelia Public Advisory Number 5A

, UTC by

Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 


000
WTNT31 KNHC 221751
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA... 
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF 
NORTH CAROLINA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 76.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was 
located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 76.0 West. Ophelia is 
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This 
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, 
followed by a slight turn toward the north. On the forecast track, 
the center of Ophelia will approach the coast of North Carolina 
tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern 
Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday.
 
Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters and satellite wind 
data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 
mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is 
possible before landfall along the coast of North Carolina.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) 
from the center. NOAA buoy 41025 at Diamond Shoals, North Carolina, 
recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of 
60 mph (97 km/h). A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North 
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and 
a gust of 52 mph (83 km/h).  
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the North 
Carolina coast within the warning area and will continue spreading 
northward through Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  Ophelia is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, 
with localized amounts of 7 inches across portions of eastern North 
Carolina and southeast Virginia from today into Saturday. Across 
remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 
to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from later today into Sunday.  
This rainfall may produce flash, urban, and small stream flooding 
impacts.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east
coast of the United States through this weekend.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through
Saturday for portions of the mid-Atlantic Coast.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart