5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 23:36:44 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 21:24:28 GMT
Archives for November 17, 2020
Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 18A
Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020
798 WTNT31 KNHC 172343 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 18A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 600 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Correct Eta to Iota in headline ...CENTER OF IOTA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS... ...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM IOTA... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 86.9W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Honduras * Bay Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 86.9 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 12 mph. The center of the storm will move into southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El Salvador on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical depression this evening or tonight and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and these winds will spread farther inland across southern Honduras during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas along the coast in Honduras. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm). El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 172109 CCA TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 1...Corretced NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 Corrected Daylight Time to Standard Time ...LATE-SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 113.3W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 113.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. Weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low within two to three days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172111 CCA TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 Corrected Daylight Time to Standard time Visible satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the circulation of the area of low pressure located well south-southwest of Baja California has become better defined today. The associated convective activity has also become organized in a band around the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. Therefore, the system is being classified as a tropical depression with winds of 30 kt, as indicated by the scatterometer data and a T2.0 (30 kt) Dvorak classification from TAFB. The depression is currently located over SSTs of around 28 deg C, and within a low shear environment. These conditions are conducive for strengthening, but the surrounding mid-level environment is fairly dry which is likely to limit intensification. Most of the intensity guidance calls for the system to become a short-lived tropical storm, and so does the official forecast. After 24 hours, increasing upper-level westerly winds, cooler SSTs, and even less favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to weaken. The system is likely to become a remnant low in about 48 hours, and the global models show it degenerating into a trough of low pressure in 60-72 hours, which is also indicated in the NHC forecast. The initial motion estimate is 285/11 kt. A mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico over the eastern Pacific should steer the system west-northwestward for the next couple of days. After that time, the cyclone is likely to turn more westward as it weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The track guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 15.2N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 15.6N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 16.2N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.7N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 20/0600Z 17.2N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Nov 17 2020
916 WTPZ41 KNHC 172042 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 300 PM MDT Tue Nov 17 2020 Visible satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the circulation of the area of low pressure located well south-southwest of Baja California has become better defined today. The associated convective activity has also become organized in a band around the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. Therefore, the system is being classified as a tropical depression with winds of 30 kt, as indicated by the scatterometer data and a T2.0 (30 kt) Dvorak classification from TAFB. The depression is currently located over SSTs of around 28 deg C, and within a low shear environment. These conditions are conducive for strengthening, but the surrounding mid-level environment is fairly dry which is likely to limit intensification. Most of the intensity guidance calls for the system to become a short-lived tropical storm, and so does the official forecast. After 24 hours, increasing upper-level westerly winds, cooler SSTs, and even less favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to weaken. The system is likely to become a remnant low in about 48 hours, and the global models show it degenerating into a trough of low pressure in 60-72 hours, which is also indicated in the NHC forecast. The initial motion estimate is 285/11 kt. A mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico over the eastern Pacific should steer the system west-northwestward for the next couple of days. After that time, the cyclone is likely to turn more westward as it weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The track guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 15.2N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 15.6N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 16.2N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.7N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 20/0600Z 17.2N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 20:44:10 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 20:44:10 GMT
Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
000
FONT11 KNHC 172042
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 20:43:05 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 20:43:05 GMT
Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 18
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020
797 WTNT41 KNHC 172043 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 The cloud pattern of Iota has slowly degraded during the day, with warming of the cloud tops, but it has remained fairly well organized for a system that's been over land for about 18 hours. The initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt using the Decay-SHIPS guidance. Iota will encounter higher terrain soon while it moves westward at about 10 kt, so it should quickly weaken tonight, and it will probably degenerate into a weak low near El Salvador overnight. None of the available guidance show regeneration in the eastern Pacific, perhaps due to cooler SSTs with all of the recent gap wind events, and plenty of drier air in the vicinity. Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 2. Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.7N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0600Z 13.6N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
613 WTPZ21 KNHC 172042 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 113.3W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 113.3W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.6N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.2N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.7N 119.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.2N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E (EP1/EP212020)
…LATE-SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC…
As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Nov 17
the center of Twenty-One-E was located near 15.2, -113.3
with movement WNW at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
116
FOPZ11 KNHC 172042
PWSEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020
2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 115W 34 26 4(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 18
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
000 WTNT21 KNHC 172040 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HONDURAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS * BAY ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 86.2W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......170NE 90SE 50SW 170NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 86.2W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.6N 87.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 86.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 18
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020
614 WTNT31 KNHC 172042 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 ...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM IOTA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 86.2W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of Nicaragua from Bluefields northward to the border with Honduras. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Honduras * Bay Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 86.2 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 12 mph. The center of the storm will move into southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El Salvador early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical depression this evening and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and these winds will spread farther inland across southern Honduras during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas along the coast in Honduras. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm). El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 17:38:51 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 15:24:25 GMT
Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 17A
Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020
000 WTNT31 KNHC 171738 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1200 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA POSSIBLE FROM IOTA THROUGH THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 85.7W ABOUT 105 MI...160 KM E OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bluefields Nicaragua to the Guatemala/Honduras border * Bay Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 85.7 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move across southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El Salvador early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical depression this evening, and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas along the coast in Nicaragua and Honduras. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm). El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
000
FONT11 KNHC 171440
PWSAT1
HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
1500 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUANAJA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 14:40:56 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 14:40:56 GMT
Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 17
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
000 WTNT21 KNHC 171439 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAVE CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE COASTLINES FROM SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER * BAY ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 85.2W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 110SE 70SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 85.2W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 84.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.7N 86.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.7N 88.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 85.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 17
Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020
000 WTNT31 KNHC 171439 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 900 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 ...IOTA COULD PRODUCE POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 85.2W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras have changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for their respective coastlines from Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Patuca Honduras. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bluefields Nicaragua to the Guatemala/Honduras border * Bay Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 85.2 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). The hurricane will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move across southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El Salvador early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical storm this afternoon, a tropical depression this evening, and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and Honduras. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm). El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 17
Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020
000 WTNT41 KNHC 171441 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 900 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Satellite images indicate that Iota continues to weaken over land with warming cloud tops near the center. It still has a small core, however, so the initial wind speed will be lowered to 65 kt on this advisory, in line with the Decay-SHIPS model. Further weakening is expected today as Iota moves westward at about 10 kt, with Iota becoming a tropical storm this afternoon, and a tropical depression tonight. Iota should degenerate into a remnant low near El Salvador by tomorrow due to the rugged terrain of central America. While the winds of Iota are weakening, there are still life- threatening hazards ongoing for central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, which could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 2. Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, are still expected for the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 13.7N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0000Z 13.7N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 13.7N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 11:46:43 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 09:24:30 GMT
Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 16A
Issued at 700 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020
000 WTNT31 KNHC 171146 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 700 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 ...IOTA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND POWERFUL WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 84.8W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF EL PIA NICARAGUA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the Guatemala/Honduras border * Bay Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 84.8 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Iota will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move across southern Honduras tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (135 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is expected today into Wednesday, and Iota is forecast to dissipate over Central America by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Significant wind damage is occurring near Iota's eyewall and these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and Honduras. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm). El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 08:45:30 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 08:45:30 GMT
Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 16
Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020
000 WTNT41 KNHC 170844 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 Iota made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua around 0340 UTC, near the town of Haulover. Iota's landfall location was about 12 nmi south of where Category 4 Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this month on November 3rd. Due to the previous damage caused by Eta, wind reports have been extremely limited. There was an amateur radio report from Club de Radio-Experimentadores de Nicaragua of 124 mph (200 Km/h) winds and roofs damaged in the town of Wilbi, Nicaragua. However, it is uncertain if these were sustained winds or wind gusts. At the Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport at 0253 UTC, a sustained wind of 72 kt (134 km/h) and a gust to 98 kt (182 km/h) were measured. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based on the Decay-SHIPS model's weakening rate for inland tropical cyclones, and the remnant eye feature still noted in infrared satellite imagery. Iota is moving westward, or 270/08 kt. Iota is expected to continue moving generally westward today into early Wednesday, as the cyclone moves along he southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located over the northern Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and southeastern Mexico. The lower levels of the ridge are forecast to push southward behind a cold front, which will force Iota and its remnants west-southwestward across southern Honduras and El Salvador in the 24-36 hour period. Iota is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, with the remnant mid-level circulation possibly drifting westward into the eastern North Pacific basin. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. Additional rapid weakening is forecast for the next 36 hours as Iota moves farther inland over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance. Although Hurricane Iota has moved inland, damaging winds are occurring inland, and also along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua, where a significant storm surge of 5-10 ft is still likely occurring. In addition to the destructive winds and storm surge, there will be the potential for up to 30 inches of rainfall. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is moving across the same general location that Category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less than two weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Iota is still a significant hurricane. Damaging winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.7N 84.3W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1800Z 13.8N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 13.8N 87.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1800Z 13.7N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
000
FONT11 KNHC 170838
PWSAT1
HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
0900 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS
...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GUANAJA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BLUEFIELDS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 08:41:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 08:41:25 GMT
Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 16
Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020
000 WTNT31 KNHC 170838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 ...IOTA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 84.3W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM ENE OF EL PIA NICARAGUA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Providencia and San Andres Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the Guatemala/Honduras border * Bay Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Iota will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move across southern Honduras tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota is now a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid weakening is expected today into Wednesday, and Iota is forecast to dissipate over Central America by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Puerto Cabezas airport in Nicaragua recently reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust to 77 mph (124 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Significant wind damage is occurring near Iota's eyewall and these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and Honduras. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm). El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 16
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020
000 WTNT21 KNHC 170838 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PROVIDENCIA AND SAN ANDRES ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER * BAY ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 84.3W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 84.3W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 83.9W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.8N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.8N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.7N 89.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 84.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 06:02:15 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 03:24:30 GMT