5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 23:36:05 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 21:24:38 GMT
Archives for November 15, 2020
Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 10A
Issued at 700 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020
000 WTNT31 KNHC 152335 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 700 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 ...IOTA STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE- THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 79.8W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 79.8 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will pass near or over Providencia island late tonight or Monday, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches Central America. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday morning: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm). WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras area beginning late Monday with tropical storm conditions expected Monday morning. Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia overnight with tropical storm conditions expected this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres later this evening with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
000
FONT11 KNHC 152036
PWSAT1
HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
2100 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS
...90 MPH...150 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUANAJA 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 13(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 2 49(51) 39(90) 3(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X 14(14) 56(70) 6(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X 7( 7) 43(50) 4(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
BLUEFIELDS 34 2 2( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
BLUEFIELDS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 20 41(61) 2(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
SAN ANDRES 50 3 10(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
SAN ANDRES 64 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LIMON 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
COLON 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 20:38:19 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 20:38:19 GMT
Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
000 WTNT21 KNHC 152036 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 2100 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 79.3W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 79.3W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 78.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.6N 80.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.0N 82.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.3N 83.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.4N 84.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 86.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.1N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 79.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020
000 WTNT31 KNHC 152036 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 ...RAPID STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS IOTA APPROACHES NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE- THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 79.3W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 79.3 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will pass near or over Providencia island late tonight or Monday, and approach the coasts of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras Monday, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches Central America. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday morning: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm). WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras area beginning late Monday with tropical storm conditions beginning Monday morning. Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia overnight with tropical storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this evening with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020
000 WTNT41 KNHC 152037 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 The satellite presentation of Iota has continued to improve this afternoon. A ragged eye has become apparent in visible satellite imagery, with excellent banding features surrounding it. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a minimum central pressure of 977 mb during its first pass through the center earlier this afternoon, and recorded around 974 mb on its second pass. Somewhat surprisingly, the plane only measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 74 kt and SFMR winds of 68 kt. Those winds support an intensity slightly lower than what was previously estimated, but given the low central pressure and downward trend, plus the fact that the plane only made a single pass in each quadrant, it is possible that the maximum winds were not sampled. In addition, the satellite presentation and pressure fall may be preceding the winds slightly. Therefore, the initial is again set at 80 kt. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route and should provide additional information on Iota's intensity this evening. Very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear and warm waters are expected to lead to rapid strengthening until the center crosses the coast of Central America. The NHC intensity forecast again calls for Iota to reach major hurricane strength tonight, and become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Central America Monday night. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and shows a peak slightly above the latest HFIP corrected consensus model. After landfall, rapid weakening should occur as Iota moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America. Iota is moving westward to west-northwestward at about 8 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged from before. A strong mid-level ridge that extends across the western Atlantic and Florida will steer Iota westward to west-northwestward through landfall Monday night. Once Iota moves over Central America, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward through 24 hours, but little overall change was required thereafter. The official forecast lies near the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical model envelope. In addition to potentially catastrophic winds, Iota is expected to bring a life-threatening storm surge and extreme rainfall impacts to portions of Central America. This comes less than two weeks after Hurricane Eta significantly impacted the area. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America on Monday. Potentially catastrophic winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres. 3. Through Friday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 13.3N 79.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 13.6N 80.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 14.0N 82.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 14.3N 83.6W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1800Z 14.4N 84.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0600Z 14.3N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/1800Z 14.1N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 17:49:06 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 15:31:38 GMT
Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 9A
Issued at 100 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020
000 WTNT31 KNHC 151748 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 100 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IOTA... ...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 78.9W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 315 MI...520 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 78.9 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, pass near or over Providencia island late tonight or Monday, and approach the coasts of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras within the hurricane warning area late Monday. Maximum sustained are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours, and Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches Central America. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday morning: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm). WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras area beginning late Monday with tropical storm conditions beginning Monday morning. Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia overnight with tropical storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this evening with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown/Blake
Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020
000 WTNT31 KNHC 151501 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 9...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Corrected the reference to the storm name in the wind section ...IOTA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 78.5W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 78.5 West. Iota is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so until landfall occurs. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, pass near or just north of Providencia island on Monday, and approach the coasts of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras within the hurricane warning area late Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours, and Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches Central America. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday morning: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm). WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning in Nicaragua and Honduras area beginning late Monday with tropical storm conditions beginning Monday morning. Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia by late tonight with tropical storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this evening with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
000
FONT15 KNHC 151431
PWSAT5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 14:31:58 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 14:31:58 GMT
Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
000
FONT11 KNHC 151436
PWSAT1
HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS
...90 MPH...150 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) X(16)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 6(20) X(20)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
GUANAJA 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 14(24) 11(35) 3(38) X(38)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 3 15(18) 57(75) 11(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X 3( 3) 37(40) 20(60) 4(64) X(64) X(64)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) 22(22) 14(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39)
BLUEFIELDS 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18)
BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 5 27(32) 8(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43)
SAN ANDRES 50 3 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
SAN ANDRES 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LIMON 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
COLON 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
KINGSTON 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 14:38:16 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 14:38:16 GMT
Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Forecast Advisory Number 23
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
000 WTNT25 KNHC 151430 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 18.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 18.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 18.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.9N 18.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.5N 16.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 18.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Public Advisory Number 23
Issued at 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020
000 WTNT35 KNHC 151430 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 ...THETA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 18.2W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 18.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a faster north or north-northeast motion is forecast for a day or two until the low dissipates. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The low should gradually decay and dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high- seas-forecast/. $$ Forecaster Blake
Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Forecast Discussion Number 23
Issued at 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020
000 WTNT45 KNHC 151432 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 Theta has run out of theta-e. The cyclone has been without significant deep convection for many hours now and has been gradually spinning down today. It no longer meets the qualifications of a tropical cyclone, so this is the last advisory. The initial wind speed is set to 25 kt per the latest scatterometer pass. The low is meandering this morning. It is expected to be picked up to the north-northeast by the next trough over the northeastern Atlantic, along with an increase in forward speed. The remnants of Theta should gradually lose strength due to strong shear, very dry air and little instability before dissipating in a day or two. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high- seas-forecast/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 31.5N 18.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 16/0000Z 31.9N 18.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 36.5N 16.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
000 WTNT21 KNHC 151435 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 78.5W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 78.5W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 78.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.8N 79.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 82.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.4N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 13.8N 89.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 78.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020
000 WTNT31 KNHC 151436 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 ...IOTA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 78.5W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 78.5 West. Iota is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so until landfall occurs. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, pass near or just north of Providencia island on Monday, and approach the coasts of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras within the hurricane warning area late Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours, and Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches Central America. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday morning: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm). WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning in Nicaragua and Honduras area beginning late Monday with tropical storm conditions beginning Monday morning. Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia by late tonight with tropical storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this evening with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020
000 WTNT41 KNHC 151436 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Iota continues to rapidly strengthen. The hurricane has an impressive appearance in visible satellite imagery with a very symmetric Central Dense Overcast and excellent banding features in all quadrants. The outflow has become well established and recent microwave satellite imagery has shown a 37-GHz eye feature and a mid-level eye that was not quite closed. A TAFB Dvorak classification of T4.5 was the basis for the 75-kt 1200 UTC analyzed intensity, and with the continued improvement in structure the advisory wind speed is set at 80 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to the storm. Iota is located within an extremely conducive environment for strengthening. The upper-level wind pattern is forecast to remain quite favorable while the storm crosses sea surface temperatures of 28.5-29 degrees C. As a result, continued rapid strengthening is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Iota is forecast to become a potentially catastrophic category 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of northeastern Nicaragua or eastern Honduras. A difficult-to-predict eyewall replacement cycle could cause the intensity to begin to level off when Iota nears the coast. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for continued rapid strengthening and is in good agreement with the SHIPS and HFIP corrected consensus models. After landfall, rapid weakening should occur as Iota moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America. The hurricane has begun moving faster toward the west-northwest, with a long-term motion estimate of 285/8 kt. The steering currents ahead of Iota are well established as a strong mid-level ridge is located over the western Atlantic and Florida. This should keep Iota on a westward to west-northwestward heading through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward track is anticipated. The global models are in good agreement on this scenario and the updated NHC track forecast is only adjusted a little north of the previous track to be closer to the latest multi-model consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America on Monday. Potentially catastrophic winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by this evening on San Andres. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 13.3N 78.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 13.8N 79.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 14.4N 82.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0000Z 14.4N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/1200Z 13.8N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 11:47:59 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 09:31:43 GMT
Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 8A
Issued at 700 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020
000 WTNT31 KNHC 151147 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 700 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 ...IOTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 77.8W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 77.8 West. Iota is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days until landfall occurs in Central America. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Iota is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches (200 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm). WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia by late tonight with tropical storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this afternoon or evening with hurricane conditions possible there tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown/Blake
Hurricane Iota Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 08:53:29 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 08:53:29 GMT
Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 400 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020
000 WTNT41 KNHC 150851 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Iota has continued to rapidly intensify, strengthening 35 kt during the past 24 hours. Deep convection has increased in vertical depth and has also expanded, producing a symmetrical Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with a large area of cloud tops colder than -80C surrounding the center. Upper-level outflow has also improved in all quadrants as the deep-layer vertical wind shear has finally abated. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance investigating Iota early this morning measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 76 kt on its outbound leg, which equates to about a 68-kt equivalent surface wind speed. The second center dropsonde pressure was 987 mb with a 21-kt surface wind, which equals about 985 mb, a pressure drop of 4 mb in a little more than an hour. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 70 kt for this advisory. Iota has recently wobbled to the northwest, but the best motion estimate is 280/05 kt. An expansive ridge extending westward from the Atlantic across Florida and over the Gulf of Mexico will keep Iota moving in a westward to west-northwestward motion for the next few days, resulting in a Central America landfall in about 48 hours, close to where former Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this month. As low-level ridging increases southward across the Gulf of Mexico on days 3 and 4, Iota is expected to move westward farther inland over Central America and dissipate by day 5. The new NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on this developing track scenario. The new official track forecast is a little north of the previous advisory track, primarily due to the more northward initial position, and lies along the southern edge of the guidance between the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. The atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to be very conducive for continued rapid strengthening, characterized by low shear less than 5 kt, moist mid-tropospheric air, and sea-surface temperatures of 28.5-29.0 deg C. Therefore, rapid intensification is explicitly forecast for the next 48 hours, with Iota expected to become a category 4 hurricane before it reaches central America. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the bulk of the intensity guidance, but lies a little below the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models, which bring Iota to 120-125 kt just prior to landfall. The slightly lower intensity is due to the warm water east of Nicaragua becoming a more shallow, which could result in some cold some upwelling, plus a possible eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) occurring. After Iota moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast as the hurricane moves over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and southern Honduras. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to rapidly intensify and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras, and hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected there beginning Monday. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by Sunday evening on San Andres. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 13.1N 77.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 13.4N 78.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 13.7N 80.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 14.1N 81.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 14.3N 83.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 14.3N 84.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0600Z 14.2N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0600Z 13.9N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Depression Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
000
FONT15 KNHC 150835
PWSAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Depression Theta Forecast Discussion Number 22
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020
000 WTNT45 KNHC 150837 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Theta Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 Theta is barely a tropical cyclone. The only remnants of deep convection are a small area of warming cloud tops, located around 90 n mi to the southeast of Theta's exposed center. The cyclone has produced little central convection all day, so it is assumed that at least slight weakening has occurred and the intensity is set at 30 kt. This also agrees with a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB. If Theta does not redevelop substantial inner-core convection soon, it will likely become a remnant low later today. The cyclone has slowed down and is moving eastward with an initial motion of 090/4 kt. A continued slow eastward track is expected today, before a ridge centered over northwestern Africa begins to steer the cyclone northward on Monday. Although Theta could continue to produce intermittent bursts of convection, no significant redevelopment is anticipated due to surrounding dry air and cool underlying SSTs. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 12 h and dissipate in 60 h. No major changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, both of which are based on the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 31.8N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 31.9N 17.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z 33.1N 17.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z 35.5N 16.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 39.0N 14.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Depression Theta Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 08:38:58 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 08:38:58 GMT
Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
000
FONT11 KNHC 150842
PWSAT1
HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) X(17)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 15(25) 5(30) X(30)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 4( 5) 23(28) 39(67) 14(81) 1(82) X(82)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) 16(52) 1(53) X(53)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 8(19) 2(21) X(21)
BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAN ANDRES 34 3 14(17) 27(44) 6(50) 3(53) X(53) X(53)
SAN ANDRES 50 X 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18)
SAN ANDRES 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
LIMON 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
COLON 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MONTEGO BAY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KINGSTON 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Depression Theta Forecast Advisory Number 22
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
000 WTNT25 KNHC 150835 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 18.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 18.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.9N 17.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.1N 17.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.5N 16.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 39.0N 14.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 18.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Depression Theta Public Advisory Number 22
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020
000 WTNT35 KNHC 150835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Theta Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 ...THETA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 18.3W ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Theta was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 18.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). A continued slow eastward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low later today and could dissipate in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky