5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 08:50:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 08:50:45 GMT
Archives for November 12, 2020
Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 48
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020
000
FONT14 KNHC 120854
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAVANNAH GA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
KINGS BAY GA 34 34 5(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
KINGS BAY GA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
WAYCROSS GA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 45 8(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
JACKSONVILLE 34 43 X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
JACKSONVILLE 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ORLANDO FL 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PATRICK AFB 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 08:55:35 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 08:55:35 GMT
Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020
000 WTNT25 KNHC 120848 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 30.2W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 100SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 450SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 30.2W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 30.8W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.0N 28.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.3N 26.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.3N 24.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.0N 22.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.7N 20.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.6N 20.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 33.0N 19.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 37.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 30.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020
000 WTNT35 KNHC 120849 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 ...THETA MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 30.2W ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 30.2 West. Theta is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn towards the east with a slower forward speed by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday. Slow weakening is forecast to begin over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020
000 WTNT45 KNHC 120849 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 Theta currently is comprised of a large swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no convection near the center. However, a band of convection is wrapped about three-quarters of the way around the center at a distance of about 200 n mi in the eastern semicircle and 100 n mi in the western semicircle. Overall, the cyclone has somewhat of a subtropical appearance at this time. Since there has been no data from the cyclone's core region since the last scatterometer pass, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The storm continued to jog a little to the left since the last advisory, but the last few satellite images suggest a more eastward motion has resumed. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 060/10. For the next 24 h or so, Theta is expected to continue to move east-northeastward as it rounds the north side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Cabo Verde islands. An eastward to east-southeastward motion is expected from 24-72 h as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level northerly flow moves over the cyclone. After that time, Theta or its remnants is expected to be steered northeastward in the low-level flow to the southeast of a deep-layer mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The new forecast track is adjusted north of the previous track based on the initial position and motion, and it lies near the various consensus models. Theta is forecast to change little in intensity during the next 36 h or so as it moves into the light shear area near an upper-level trough axis. After that time, the trough moves south of the cyclone, and strong northerly vertical shear should occur along with the entrainment of stable air. This combination should cause Theta to quickly weaken, and the intensity forecast calls for the system to decay to a remnant low pressure area by 96 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the old forecast, and it lies a little above the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 31.7N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 32.0N 28.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 32.3N 26.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 32.3N 24.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 32.0N 22.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 31.7N 20.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 31.6N 20.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 33.0N 19.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0600Z 37.0N 18.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 48
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020
000 WTNT24 KNHC 120853 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING BETWEEN BONITA BEACH AND MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY FLORIDA INCLUDING CHARLOTTE HARBOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FLORIDA LINE NORTHWARD TO ST. ANDREWS SOUND GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 83.0W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 83.0W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.6N 81.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.6N 78.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.2N 73.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 38.0N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 48
Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020
000 WTNT34 KNHC 120854 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 ...ETA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA... ...STILL PRODUCING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 83.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of the middle of Longboat Key has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning between Bonita Beach and Middle of Longboat Key, Florida, including Charlotte Harbor, has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Middle of Longboat Key to Suwannee River Florida, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Middle of Longboat Key to Suwannee River Florida * Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 83.0 West. Eta is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). Eta should make landfall soon, move across northeastern Florida today and emerge into the western Atlantic this afternoon. The cyclone is expected to accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but offshore of the Carolinas before heading well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast by late Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is expected to weaken after landfall but could re-intensify as a non-tropical cyclone on Thursday and Friday before becoming absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service station near Cedar Key recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 50 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches) based on surface observations from Cedar Key. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...1-3 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of the Florida Peninsula through today, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 to 25 inches in South Florida. Localized flash and urban flooding will be possible across the Florida Peninsula today, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west Florida lasting into the weekend. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast through this morning, and in the warning area along the east coast starting in the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the Florida Gulf Coast today and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 48
Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020
000 WTNT44 KNHC 120854 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Satellite images indicate that Eta has lost most of its central deep convection over the past several hours, with the radar center becoming poorly defined and decreasing winds aloft noted. The last Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission found winds to support about 50 kt, and with the continued loss of organization, the current wind speed is lowered to 45 kt. The tropical cyclone should be making landfall in the Cedar Key area soon. Eta is forecast to weaken over its short passage over the Florida peninsula later today, and over the western Atlantic tonight due to strong shear. There has been a change in some of the guidance showing the tropical cyclone re-gaining strength as a non-tropical low after 24 hours due to a more favorable positioning with the next mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes on Friday. The strongest solutions are seen in the UKMET and ECMWF models, which indicate even storm-force winds are possible in a few days. I'd rather wait one more cycle to see if this trend continues but, as a compromise, the new forecast shows some re-strengthening as an extratropical cyclone and reverses any former weakening trend. The storm is moving a little faster to the northeast this morning. Eta should accelerate even more in that direction later today as it becomes steered by the faster middle-latitude flow. The new forecast shows a more rapid forward speed than the previous advisory, which is related to the ECMWF/UKMET model solutions of Eta showing some extratropical intensification and staying coherent, rather than shearing out as a weak low like the GFS. Eta should merge with a large non-tropical low in 2 to 3 days. Key Messages: 1. There remains a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from the Middle of Longboat Key to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast during the next few hours, and in the warning area on the east coast later today. 3. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west Florida lasting into the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 29.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 30.6N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 32.6N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 35.2N 73.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z 38.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Eta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 02:49:32 GMT
Tropical Storm Eta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 04:06:46 GMT
Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 05:44:37 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 03:24:41 GMT
Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 47A
Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020
000 WTNT34 KNHC 120544 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 47A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 ...ETA CAUSING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 83.3W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Englewood has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Englewood to Suwannee River Florida * Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound Georgia. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 83.3 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast this morning. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move near but just offshore of the west-central coast of Florida during the next few hours, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula this morning. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late today and early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida during the next few hours, followed by more rapid weakening after landfall occurs later today. Eta is forecast to dissipate over the western Atlantic Ocean by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service station near Clearwater Beach recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 52 mph (84 km/h). A University of South Florida station in Fred Howard Park near Tarpon Springs recently measured sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust of 53 mph (85 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: West and central Florida, through today: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida, through today: An additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 to 25 inches in South Florida. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida through today, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through today. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region today. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight over parts of western and central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 300 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 The cloud appearance of Theta briefly became a bit more symmetric earlier tonight, though the colder cloud tops that attempted to wrap around the low-level center have recently decayed, possibly due to entrainment of dry mid-latitude air. A 2243 UTC ASCAT-B pass and a subsequent ASCAT-C pass both found the max winds with Theta a little stronger than previously estimated with maximum values exceeding 50 kt. These data support an initial intensity of 55 kt, and this could even be a little conservative. Over the last 6 h Theta appears to have made a slight jog left of the previous forecast track, perhaps related to the convection wrapping around the center, but the longer term motion is still east-northeast at about 10 kt. Over the next day, Theta is expected to continue to move east-northeastward as it rounds the north side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Cape Verde islands. Between 48 h to 72 h Theta's track is forecast to bend east and then east-southeast as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens a bit, and mid to upper-level northerly flow from a weak mid-level ridge attempts to build in to the west. The latest track guidance shows a fair amount of spread in how quickly Theta makes this bend to the east-southeast, and this is a large source of uncertainty in the forecast. The NHC track forecast splits the difference between the faster ECMWF and slower HMON/HWRF guidance, and is not far from the TVCN consensus. The intensity forecast of Theta has been adjusted upward for the first 48 h due to the higher initial intensity. GFS-SHIPS diagnostics indicate the vertical wind shear will gradually decrease while Theta moves through an unstable temperature profile conducive for moderate to deep convection. Thereafter, the aforementioned upper-level northerly flow will lead to an increase in the vertical wind shear and import very stable mid-latitude air over Theta’s circulation. Most of the reliable global model guidance shows Theta succumbing to these negative effects and becoming a remnant low by 96 h. The official intensity forecast shows the same, and is on the high side of the guidance but not far from any of the models since the spread is quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 31.1N 31.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 31.5N 29.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 32.0N 27.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 32.1N 25.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 31.8N 23.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 31.4N 21.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 31.2N 20.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 31.2N 19.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0000Z 35.6N 18.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky NNNN
Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 02:59:59 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 02:59:59 GMT
Tropical Storm Eta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 21:41:46 GMT
Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 47
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020
000
FONT14 KNHC 120245
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SAVANNAH GA 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
KINGS BAY GA 34 12 21(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
WAYCROSS GA 34 5 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 22 22(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 25 15(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 88 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 20 7(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
THE VILLAGES 34 93 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
THE VILLAGES 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ORLANDO FL 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PATRICK AFB 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
TAMPA FL 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ST MARKS FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 47
Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020
000 WTNT44 KNHC 120246 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Deep convection intensified over the northern portion of the circulation of Eta over the past few hours, however the overall cloud pattern has not become better organized this evening. Adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds are near 55 kt, with the central pressure holding about steady for now. Since the storm will be moving over progressively cooler waters, with strong west-southwesterly shear and some incursions of drier air, gradual weakening is likely up to landfall tomorrow morning. A more rapid weakening is likely after the center crosses the coast tomorrow. The dynamical guidance does not indicate significant restrengthening after Eta emerges into the Atlantic within 24 hours, although some baroclinic forcing could allow the system to maintain its intensity for awhile. The cyclone is likely to be absorbed by a frontal zone in 60-72 hours if not sooner. Center fixes indicate that the motion continues to be just a little to the east of due north, or 010/10 kt. A slight turn toward the right is expected soon, and over the next couple of days Eta should move north-northeastward to northeastward, ahead of a broad mid-level trough, until dissipation. The official track forecast follows the general trajectory of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus, but is somewhat slower than the consensus guidance in deference to the latest GFS prediction. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected tonight and early Thursday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwanee River, and are possible tonight on Thursday from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta. 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue to spread northward across West and Central Florida through Thursday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 28.3N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 29.7N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/0000Z 31.8N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 13/1200Z 33.7N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1200Z 37.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Eta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 02:49:32 GMT
Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020
000
FONT15 KNHC 120253
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 02:57:20 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 02:57:20 GMT
Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 47
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020
000 WTNT24 KNHC 120244 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FLORIDA LINE NORTHWARD TO ST. ANDREWS SOUND GEORGIA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BOCA GRANDE FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BONITA BEACH TO SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOCA GRANDE TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FLORIDA LINE NORTHWARD TO ST. ANDREWS SOUND GEORGIA. A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 83.4W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 83.4W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 83.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.7N 82.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N 79.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.7N 76.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 37.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 83.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 47
Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020
000 WTNT34 KNHC 120245 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...ETA CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 83.4W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound Georgia. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Boca Grande Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Boca Grande to Suwannee River Florida * Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound Georgia. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 83.4 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast Thursday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move near but just offshore of the west-central coast of Florida during the next few hours, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday morning. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday and early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by more rapid weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Albert Whitted Airport near St. Petersburg recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 52 mph (84 km/h). A Weatherflow site in Tampa Bay recently measured sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph (94 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: West and central Florida, through Thursday: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida, through Thursday: An additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 to 25 inches in South Florida. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast through Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight over parts of western and central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020
000 WTNT25 KNHC 120252 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 31.4W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 100SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 330SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 31.4W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 31.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.5N 29.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.0N 27.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.1N 25.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.8N 23.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.4N 21.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.2N 20.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 31.2N 19.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 35.6N 18.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 31.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 300 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020
000 WTNT35 KNHC 120253 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 ...THETA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 31.4W ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 31.4 West. Theta is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the east with a slower forward speed by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Slow weakening is forecast to begin over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Eta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 20:47:19 GMT
Tropical Storm Eta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 21:41:46 GMT
Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 23:58:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 21:24:41 GMT
Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 46A
Issued at 700 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020
000 WTNT34 KNHC 112357 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 46A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 83.4W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast Thursday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday and early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by rapid weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, a C-MAN observing station at Venice Beach measured a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h). A Weatherflow site at the Skyway fishing pier recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h). Another Weatherflow site at Clam Bayou Nature Preserve, near St. Petersburg, just reported a gust of 51 mph (82 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) through Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). West and central Florida, through Thursday: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida, through Thursday: An additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through tonight, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast this evening through early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of western and central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 46A
Issued at 700 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 46A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 83.4W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast Thursday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday and early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by rapid weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, a C-MAN observing station at Venice Beach measured a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h). A Weatherflow site at the Skyway fishing pier recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h). Another Weatherflow site at Clam Bayou Nature Preserve, near St. Petersburg, just reported a gust of 51 mph (82 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) through Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). West and central Florida, through Thursday: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida, through Thursday: An additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through tonight, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast this evening through early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of western and central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN