5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Oct 2020 02:38:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Oct 2020 02:38:11 GMT
Archives for October 2020
Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 20
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 13 2020
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 132036 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 111.7W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 111.7W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 21.1N 112.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 23.0N 114.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 24.4N 115.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.5N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 20
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 132036 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 ...NORBERT REDEVELOPS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 111.7W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 111.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a slower forward speed as Norbert turns northward on Thursday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and Norbert is forecast to dissipate by Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 13 2020
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 132036
PWSEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
2100 UTC TUE OCT 13 2020
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 20
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 132037 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 Low pressure associated with the remnants of Norbert has become well-organized today, with persistent convection near and north of the estimated low-level center. Partial ScatSat and ASCAT-B passes near of this system suggest the low-level circulation is closed, and 25-30 kt scatterometer winds are noted in the northeast quadrant of the low. Additionally, earlier surface observations from Socorro Island, Mexico and ship observations from the Nathaniel B Palmer research vessel reported northwesterly winds on the backside of the system. Together, all this information supports the conclusion that the remnants of Norbert have redeveloped into a tropical depression. The initial intensity for Norbert is set at 30 kt based on the recent ASCAT-B overpass and a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification from SAB. Norbert is only forecast to be a short-lived depression given the increasingly hostile environmental conditions it is expected to face during the next 24-48 h. While the vertical wind shear is currently weak, it is forecast to quickly increase by Wednesday courtesy of a mid- to upper-level low pressure system centered offshore of the Baja California peninsula. The majority of the guidance shows little or no intensity change, and the official NHC intensity forecast calls for Norbert to remain a 30-kt depression during the next 24 h. This should be followed by weakening as Norbert transitions to a remnant low by 48 h due to 20+ kt of deep-layer shear and decreased oceanic heat content. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Thursday night. Norbert is currently moving to the northwest at 11 kt. This general motion will continue for the next 24 h as the depression moves between a deep-layer ridge centered over northern Mexico and the upper low offshore of Baja California. As the upper low shifts westward, Norbert's forward speed will slow as the depression is drawn more northward before dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 19.8N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 21.1N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 23.0N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 24.4N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 25.5N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Oct 2020 20:39:16 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Oct 2020 20:39:16 GMT
Remnants of Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 19
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 100834 TCMEP4 REMNANTS OF NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.7W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.7W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 106.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF NORBERT PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY
Remnants of Norbert Public Advisory Number 19
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 100834 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Norbert Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 ...NORBERT DISSIPATES WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 106.7W ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Norbert were located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 106.7 West. The remnants of Norbert will likely drift northward over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants of Norbert please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
Remnants of Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 100834
PWSEP4
REMNANTS OF NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020
AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF NORBERT WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20
KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY
Remnants of Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 19
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100835 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Norbert Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Recent satellite imagery shows multiple low-level cloud swirls in the vicinity of Norbert's last estimated center position. A 0350Z ASCAT-A pass depicts a broad cyclonic circulation with at least two centers, and the only 20 kt or higher winds are displaced well to the southeast and likely associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In fact, the most well-defined circulation in the scatterometer data appears to have originated from the ITCZ and not Norbert. Additionally, Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB indicate the system is too weak to classify or barely classifiable. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on Norbert as its remnants appear to have merged into a broader ITCZ circulation over the eastern Pacific Ocean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 13.8N 106.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF NORBERT 12H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
Remnants of Norbert Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2020 08:36:36 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2020 08:36:36 GMT
Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 18
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 100234 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 106.8W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 106.8W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.4N 107.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.9N 107.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.1N 107.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.3N 107.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 18
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 100236 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...NORBERT REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 106.8W ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 106.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and Norbert is expected to dissipate by Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 100236
PWSEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 18
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Small, sporadic bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near the center of Norbert, mainly in the western semicircle due to some easterly vertical wind shear. Earlier satellite-derived wind data suggested that Norbert's low-level circulation is becoming elongated, and its structure will be reassessed overnight when new scatterometer data becomes available. The initial intensity remains 25 kt with this advisory. The global models suggest Norbert will open up into a trough and merge with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) within the next 48-72 h. However, it could degenerate into a remnant low even sooner if convection wanes. The official forecast hangs on to pesky Norbert for a couple more days before showing dissipation by 60 h. Norbert is moving northwestward at 4 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone will continue steering Norbert slowly to the northwest for the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains near the track model consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 14.0N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 14.4N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 14.9N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 15.1N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 15.3N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg