NHC Hurricane Advisories
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 160248 TCDEP2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172019 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Although deep convection associated with the area of low pressure near the southeastern coast of Mexico has increased since this afternoon, the overall organization of the system has not increased enough for it to be considered a tropical cyclone. The system, however, is predicted to become a tropical storm before it reaches the southeastern coast of Mexico on Wednesday, and NHC has initiated advisories on this system as a potential tropical cyclone. The government of Mexico has elected to issued a tropical storm watch for a portion of the coast of southeastern Mexico. The initial intensity of the system is estimated to be 30 kt based on earlier scatterometer data. The disturbance is located over very warm waters and within an area of light to moderate northeasterly shear, which should allow for some strengthening before the system moves inland. The NHC intensity forecast calls for the disturbance to become a tropical storm in 12 hours, and it is in good agreement with the statistical guidance and the global models which show some slight deepening. The system should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico after landfall. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 300/9 kt. A mid-level ridge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer the disturbance west-northwestward during the next day or so, and this motion should bring the center on the coast within 24 hours. The track guidance is in good agreement and the official forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope. The primary threat with this system will be heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides in southern Mexico during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 13.7N 93.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 16/1200Z 14.6N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 17/0000Z 16.2N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 17.6N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 16 2019
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 160247 TCMEP2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172019 0300 UTC WED OCT 16 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BARRA DE TONALA WESTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA DE TONALA TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 93.4W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 93.4W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.6N 94.8W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.2N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.6N 97.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 93.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 160247 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172019 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY... ...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 93.4W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Barra de Tonala westward to Puerto Escondido. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra de Tonala to Puerto Escondido A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 93.4 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so. On this track, the disturbance is expected to move inland over southeastern Mexico on Wednesday within the watch area. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or early Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with maximum totals of 20 inches along the southwest coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Guerrero. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected across El Salvador and southern Guatemala. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
…DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY… …SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO…
As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 15
the center of Seventeen-E was located near 13.7, -93.4
with movement WNW at 10 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.