NHC Hurricane Advisories
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019
000 WTNT45 KNHC 150240 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 The depression has become somewhat less organized this evening. A band of deep convection has developed over the far northern portion of the circulation, but there is little convection over the remainder of the large circulation. A recent partial ASCAT-C overpass suggests that the low-level center is located well southwest of the mid-level turning noted in infrared satellite pictures, and although the scatterometer did not sample the entire circulation, it appears that the 30-kt initial intensity may be generous. The depression is moving northwestward (320 degrees) at about 9 kt. While there is a chance that the center will re-form farther north near the mid-level center and area of deep convection, the overall motion of the system is expected to be northwestward during the next day or two around the southwestward periphery of a deep-layer ridge over western Africa. The models are in generally good agreement on this overall scenario, but since the system is still in the formative stage there is a fair amount of cross-track spread. After 48 hours, the cyclone should turn toward the left as it weakens and is steered by the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted north of the previous track, but is not quite as far north as the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus. Deep convection is likely to return overnight during the typical nocturnal convective maximum, and low shear and warm SSTs along the path of the cyclone favor strengthening during the next day or so. The large and sprawling structure of the system, however, suggest any intensification should be slow to occur, and the new NHC intensity forecast has been reduced slightly from the previous advisory. By 36 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs are expected to cause the cyclone to weaken and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast most closely follows the statistical SHIPS/LGEM guidance. Regardless of whether the depression becomes a tropical storm or not before passing near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 14.5N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 15.5N 21.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 16.8N 22.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 18.1N 23.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 19.3N 24.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 21.6N 27.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019
000 WTNT25 KNHC 150239 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 0300 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 20.8W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 20.8W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 20.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.5N 21.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.8N 22.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.1N 23.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 24.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.6N 27.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 20.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019
000 WTNT35 KNHC 150240 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 ...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 20.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor the progress of the depression since a Tropical Storm Warning could be required for a portion of the islands on Tuesday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 20.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday, and then move near or north of the central Cabo Verde Islands Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Weakening is forecast to begin by Wednesday morning when the cyclone will be moving away from the Cabo Verde Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the Cabo Verde Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in the higher terrain, especially across the eastern portion of the islands. This rainfall may cause flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur across the eastern Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
…POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY…
As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 14
the center of Fifteen was located near 14.5, -20.8
with movement NW at 10 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.