NHC Hurricane Advisories
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019
000 WTNT44 KNHC 140245 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 Deep convection associated with Melissa has continued to decrease in coverage this evening, and the system has become an exposed swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The initial intensity has been held at 35 kt, which is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak current intensity (CI) number and recent ASCAT data that revealed some 30-kt winds well southeast of the center. Strong westerly vertical wind shear and cool SSTs along the path of storm is expected to cause weakening, and Melissa should degenerate into a remnant low later tonight or early Monday. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a frontal boundary in 2 to 3 days. Melissa is moving east-northeastward or 075/16 kt. There has been no change to the previous track forecast reasoning. Melissa should accelerate east-northeastward to eastward during the next day or two as it remains embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 40.2N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 40.8N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/0000Z 41.5N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1200Z 41.7N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2019
000 WTNT24 KNHC 140244 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.7W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.7W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 57.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 40.8N 53.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 41.5N 47.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 41.7N 40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 56.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019
000 WTNT34 KNHC 140245 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019 ...MELISSA WEAKENS OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...DANGEROUS SWELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 56.7W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 56.7 West. Melissa is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A further increase in forward speed and a turn toward the east are expected on Monday, with that motion continuing into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight, and Melissa is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later tonight or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- COASTAL FLOODING: Minor coastal flooding will occur along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coast through early Monday around times of high tide. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa that are affecting much of U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada will gradually subside on Monday. These swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
…MELISSA WEAKENS OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC… …DANGEROUS SWELLS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA…
As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Oct 13
the center of Melissa was located near 40.2, -56.7
with movement ENE at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.