NHC Hurricane Advisories
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019
000 WTNT44 KNHC 130242 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 Satellite imagery indicates that westerly shear is increasing over Melissa, and the low-level center is now partly exposed at the western edge of the central convective mass. However, this has not yet resulted in a significant decrease in the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The initial intensity thus remains 45 kt. There have been significant changes to the initial 12-ft seas radii for this advisory based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center. The initial motion is now 080/12. Melissa should be steered generally eastward to east-northeastward in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies until the system is absorbed by a frontal zone after 72 h. There is little change to either the forecast guidance or the forecast track since the previous advisory, and the new forecast is in good agreement with the consensus models. Westerly shear should continue to increase over Melissa during the next three days. In addition, after passing over a patch or eddy of warm water associated with the Gulf Stream on Sunday, the storm should encounter much colder water. This combination should cause Melissa to weaken, and it is expected to become a remnant low after 24 h. While the forecast philosophy is unchanged from the previous forecast, the new intensity forecast is tweaked slightly to keep Melissa a tropical storm through 24 h based on the expected passage over the warm water eddy. Ongoing hazards from coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices. Key Messages: 1. Although Melissa is forecast to weaken and move away from the U.S. east coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coasts around times of high tide for the remainder of the weekend. For more information, see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices at weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 38.6N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 39.2N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 40.2N 57.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 41.1N 53.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0000Z 42.0N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0000Z 42.2N 35.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019
000 WTNT24 KNHC 130241 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 0300 UTC SUN OCT 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR INFORMATION ON COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 64.0W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 64.0W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 64.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 39.2N 61.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 40.2N 57.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 41.1N 53.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 42.0N 47.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 42.2N 35.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 64.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019
000 WTNT34 KNHC 130241 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 ...MELISSA MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.6N 64.0W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. For information on coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 64.0 West. Melissa is moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so, and Melissa is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coast through the rest of the weekend around times of high tide. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
…MELISSA MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC…
As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 12
the center of Melissa was located near 38.6, -64.0
with movement E at 14 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.